Prediction of the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes based on short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

Background: A recent phase II clinical trial (Reducing Residual Albuminuria in Subjects with Diabetes and Nephropathy with AtRasentan trial and an identical trial in Japan (RADAR/JAPAN)) showed that the endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan lowers albuminuria, blood pressure, cholesterol, hemoglobin, and increases body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. We previously developed an algorithm, the Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score, which translates short-term drug effects into predictions of long-term effects on clinical outcomes.

Design: We used the PRE score on data from the RADAR/JAPAN study to predict the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes.

The importance of short-term off-target effects in estimating the long-term renal and cardiovascular protection of angiotensin receptor blockers.

Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have multiple effects that may contribute to their efficacy on renal/cardiovascular outcomes. We developed and validated a risk score that incorporated short-term changes in multiple risk markers to predict the ARB effect on renal/cardiovascular outcomes. The score was used to predict renal/cardiovascular risk at baseline and at month 6 in the ARB treatment arm of the Reduction of Endpoints in NIDDM (noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus) with the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan (RENAAL) trial.

A prediction of the renal and cardiovascular efficacy of aliskiren in ALTITUDE using short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

Introduction: We recently developed and validated in existing trials a novel algorithm (PRE score) to predict long-term drug efficacy based on short-term (month-6) drug-induced changes in multiple risk markers. To show the value of the PRE score for ongoing and planned clinical trials, we here report the predicted long-term cardio-renal efficacy of aliskiren in type 2 diabetes, which was investigated in the ALTITUDE trial, but unknown at the time this study was conducted.

Methods: We established the relation between multiple risk markers and cardio-renal endpoints (as defined in ALTITUDE) using a background database from past clinical trials.

Albuminuria, estimated GFR, traditional risk factors, and incident cardiovascular disease: the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease) study.

Background: Abnormal levels of both albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) have been reported separately to be associated with cardiovascular risk. This study assessed the contribution of each separately in correctly identifying individuals at cardiovascular risk in the general population beyond traditional risk markers.

Study Design: Prospective community-based cohort study.