Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection.

Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth's climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries.

Toward practical stratospheric aerosol albedo modification: Solar-powered lofting.

Many climate intervention (CI) methods have been proposed to offset greenhouse gas-induced global warming, but the practicalities regarding implementation have not received sufficient attention. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) involves introducing large amounts of CI material well within the stratosphere to enhance the aerosol loading, thereby increasing reflection of solar radiation. We explore a delivery method termed solar-powered lofting (SPL) that uses solar energy to loft CI material injected at lower altitudes accessible by conventional aircraft.

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war.

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored.

Persisting volcanic ash particles impact stratospheric SO lifetime and aerosol optical properties.

Volcanic ash is often neglected in climate simulations because ash particles are assumed to have a short atmospheric lifetime, and to not participate in sulfur chemistry. After the Mt. Kelut eruption in 2014, stratospheric ash-rich aerosols were observed for months.

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security.

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y.

Black carbon lofts wildfire smoke high into the stratosphere to form a persistent plume.

In 2017, western Canadian wildfires injected smoke into the stratosphere that was detectable by satellites for more than 8 months. The smoke plume rose from 12 to 23 kilometers within 2 months owing to solar heating of black carbon, extending the lifetime and latitudinal spread. Comparisons of model simulations to the rate of observed lofting indicate that 2% of the smoke mass was black carbon.

Efficient In-Cloud Removal of Aerosols by Deep Convection.

Convective systems dominate the vertical transport of aerosols and trace gases. The most recent in situ aerosol measurements presented here show that the concentrations of primary aerosols including sea salt and black carbon drop by factors of 10 to 10,000 from the surface to the upper troposphere. In this study we show that the default convective transport scheme in the National Science Foundation/Department of Energy Community Earth System Model results in a high bias of 10-1,000 times the measured aerosol mass for black carbon and sea salt in the middle and upper troposphere.

Effects of Scavenging, Entrainment, and Aqueous Chemistry on Peroxides and Formaldehyde in Deep Convective Outflow Over the Central and Southeast United States.

Deep convective transport of gaseous precursors to ozone (O) and aerosols to the upper troposphere is affected by liquid phase and mixed-phase scavenging, entrainment of free tropospheric air and aqueous chemistry. The contributions of these processes are examined using aircraft measurements obtained in storm inflow and outflow during the 2012 Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment combined with high-resolution (d ≤ 3 km) WRF-Chem simulations of a severe storm, an air mass storm, and a mesoscale convective system (MCS). The simulation results for the MCS suggest that formaldehyde (CHO) is not retained in ice when cloud water freezes, in agreement with previous studies of the severe storm.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections.

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years.

Efficient transport of tropospheric aerosol into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone.

An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance.

Surface dimming by the 2013 Rim Fire simulated by a sectional aerosol model.

The Rim Fire of 2013, the third largest area burned by fire recorded in California history, is simulated by a climate model coupled with a size-resolved aerosol model. Modeled aerosol mass, number, and particle size distribution are within variability of data obtained from multiple-airborne in situ measurements. Simulations suggest that Rim Fire smoke may block 4-6% of sunlight energy reaching the surface, with a dimming efficiency around 120-150 W m per unit aerosol optical depth in the midvisible at 13:00-15:00 local time.

Composition and physical properties of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer and the North American Tropospheric Aerosol Layer.

Unlabelled: Recent studies revealed layers of enhanced aerosol scattering in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over Asia (Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL)) and North America (North American Tropospheric Aerosol Layer (NATAL)). We use a sectional aerosol model (Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA)) coupled with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) to explore the composition and optical properties of these aerosol layers. The observed aerosol extinction enhancement is reproduced by CESM1/CARMA.

Evaluations of tropospheric aerosol properties simulated by the community earth system model with a sectional aerosol microphysics scheme.

A sectional aerosol model (CARMA) has been developed and coupled with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Aerosol microphysics, radiative properties, and interactions with clouds are simulated in the size-resolving model. The model described here uses 20 particle size bins for each aerosol component including freshly nucleated sulfate particles, as well as mixed particles containing sulfate, primary organics, black carbon, dust, and sea salt.

Ice nucleation and dehydration in the Tropical Tropopause Layer.

Optically thin cirrus near the tropical tropopause regulate the humidity of air entering the stratosphere, which in turn has a strong influence on the Earth's radiation budget and climate. Recent high-altitude, unmanned aircraft measurements provide evidence for two distinct classes of cirrus formed in the tropical tropopause region: (i) vertically extensive cirrus with low ice number concentrations, low extinctions, and large supersaturations (up to ∼70%) with respect to ice; and (ii) vertically thin cirrus layers with much higher ice concentrations that effectively deplete the vapor in excess of saturation. The persistent supersaturation in the former class of cirrus is consistent with the long time-scales (several hours or longer) for quenching of vapor in excess of saturation given the low ice concentrations and cold tropical tropopause temperatures.

Nitrogen incorporation in CH(4)-N(2) photochemical aerosol produced by far ultraviolet irradiation.

Nitrile incorporation into Titan aerosol accompanying hydrocarbon chemistry is thought to be driven by extreme UV wavelengths (λ<120 nm) or magnetospheric electrons in the outer reaches of the atmosphere. Far UV radiation (120-200 nm), which is transmitted down to the stratosphere of Titan, is expected to affect hydrocarbon chemistry only and not initiate the formation of nitrogenated species. We examined the chemical properties of photochemical aerosol produced at far UV wavelengths, using a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS), which allows for elemental analysis of particle-phase products.

Potential climatic impact of organic haze on early Earth.

We have explored the direct and indirect radiative effects on climate of organic particles likely to have been present on early Earth by measuring their hygroscopicity and cloud nucleating ability. The early Earth analog aerosol particles were generated via ultraviolet photolysis of an early Earth analog gas mixture, which was designed to mimic possible atmospheric conditions before the rise of oxygen. An analog aerosol for the present-day atmosphere of Saturn's moon Titan was tested for comparison.

The formation of sulfate and elemental sulfur aerosols under varying laboratory conditions: implications for early earth.

The presence of sulfur mass-independent fractionation (S-MIF) in sediments more than 2.45 × 10(9) years old is thought to be evidence for an early anoxic atmosphere. Photolysis of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) by UV light with λ < 220 nm has been shown in models and some initial laboratory studies to create a S-MIF; however, sulfur must leave the atmosphere in at least two chemically different forms to preserve any S-MIF signature.

Reduction in haze formation rate on prebiotic Earth in the presence of hydrogen.

Recent attempts to resolve the faint young Sun paradox have focused on an early Earth atmosphere with elevated levels of the greenhouse gases methane (CH(4)) and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) that could have provided adequate warming to Earth's surface. On Titan, the photolysis of CH(4) has been shown to create a thick haze layer that cools its surface. Unlike Titan, however, early Earth's atmosphere likely contained high amounts of CO(2) and hydrogen (H(2)).

Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict.

We use a chemistry-climate model and new estimates of smoke produced by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the impact on stratospheric ozone of a regional nuclear war between developing nuclear states involving 100 Hiroshima-size bombs exploded in cities in the northern subtropics. We find column ozone losses in excess of 20% globally, 25-45% at midlatitudes, and 50-70% at northern high latitudes persisting for 5 years, with substantial losses continuing for 5 additional years. Column ozone amounts remain near or <220 Dobson units at all latitudes even after three years, constituting an extratropical "ozone hole.

Heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate on clay minerals: relevance to type ia polar stratospheric clouds.

Although critical to atmospheric modeling of stratospheric ozone depletion, selective heterogeneous nuclei that promote the formation of Type Ia polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are largely unknown. While mineral particles are known to be good ice nuclei, it is currently not clear whether they are also good nuclei for PSCs. In the present study, a high-vacuum chamber equipped with transmission Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and a quadrupole mass spectrometer was used to study heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) on two clay minerals-Na-montmorillonite and kaolinite-as analogs of atmospheric terrestrial and extraterrestrial minerals.