Early COVID-19 Pandemic Preparedness: Informing Public Health Interventions and Hospital Capacity Planning Through Participatory Hybrid Simulation Modeling.

We engaged with health sector stakeholders and public health professionals within the health system through a participatory modeling approach to support policy-making in the early COVID-19 pandemic in Saskatchewan, Canada. The objective was to use simulation modeling to guide the implementation of public health measures and short-term hospital capacity planning to mitigate the disease burden from March to June 2020. We developed a hybrid simulation model combining System Dynamics (SD), discrete-event simulation (DES), and agent-based modeling (ABM).

Canada's provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling efforts: A review of mathematical models and their impacts on the responses.

Setting: Mathematical modelling played an important role in the public health response to COVID-19 in Canada. Variability in epidemic trajectories, modelling approaches, and data infrastructure across provinces provides a unique opportunity to understand the factors that shaped modelling strategies.

Intervention: Provinces implemented stringent pandemic interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, considering evidence from epidemic models.

A Dynamic Model of Opioid Overdose Deaths in Canada during the Co-Occurring Opioid Overdose Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic.

With over 40,000 opioid-related overdose deaths between January 2016 and June 2023, the opioid-overdose crisis is a significant public health concern for Canada. The opioid crisis arose from a complex system involving prescription opioid use, the use of prescription opioids not as prescribed, and non-medical opioid use. The increasing presence of fentanyl and its analogues in the illegal drugs supply has been an important driver of the crisis.

Comparing Contact Tracing Through Bluetooth and GPS Surveillance Data: Simulation-Driven Approach.

Background: Accurate and responsive epidemiological simulations of epidemic outbreaks inform decision-making to mitigate the impact of pandemics. These simulations must be grounded in quantities derived from measurements, among which the parameters associated with contacts between individuals are notoriously difficult to estimate. Digital contact tracing data, such as those provided by Bluetooth beaconing or GPS colocating, can provide more precise measures of contact than traditional methods based on direct observation or self-reporting.

Real-Time Epidemiology and Acute Care Need Monitoring and Forecasting for COVID-19 via Bayesian Sequential Monte Carlo-Leveraged Transmission Models.

COVID-19 transmission models have conferred great value in informing public health understanding, planning, and response. However, the pandemic also demonstrated the infeasibility of basing public health decision-making on transmission models with pre-set assumptions. No matter how favourably evidenced when built, a model with fixed assumptions is challenged by numerous factors that are difficult to predict.

Qualitative Interviews to Add Patient Perspectives in Colorectal Cancer Screening: Improvements in a Learning Health System.

Health systems are interested in increasing colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates as CRC is a leading cause of preventable cancer death. Learning health systems are ones that use data to continually improve care. Data can and should include qualitative local perspectives to improve patient and provider education and care.

Opioid-related harms and care impacts of conventional and AI-based prescription management strategies: insights from leveraging agent-based modeling and machine learning.

Introduction: Like its counterpart to the south, Canada ranks among the top five countries with the highest rates of opioid prescriptions. With many suffering from opioid use disorder first having encountered opioids prescription routes, practitioners and health systems have an enduring need to identify and effectively respond to the problematic use of opioid prescription. There are strong challenges to successfully addressing this need: importantly, the patterns of prescription fulfillment that signal opioid abuse can be subtle and difficult to recognize, and overzealous enforcement can deprive those with legitimate pain management needs the appropriate care.

The impact of alternate level of care on access block and operational strategies to reduce emergency wait times: a multi-center simulation study.

Objectives: Lengthy emergency department (ED) wait times caused by hospital access block is a growing concern for the Canadian health care system. Our objective was to quantify the impact of alternate-level-of-care on hospital access block and evaluate the likely effects of multiple interventions on ED wait times.

Methods: Discrete-event simulation models were developed to simulate patient flows in EDs and acute care of six Canadian hospitals.

The Contribution of Gestational Diabetes to Diabetes Risk Among First Nations and Non-First Nations Women in Saskatchewan: Results From the DIP: ORRIIGENSS Project.

Objectives: Our aim in this study was to determine the risk for diabetes mellitus (DM) among Saskatchewan First Nations (FN) and non-FN women with prior gestational DM (GDM).

Methods: Using Ministry of Health administrative databases, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of DM risk by GDM occurrence among FN and non-FN women giving birth from 1980 to 2009 and followed to March 31, 2013. We determined frequencies and odds ratios (ORs) of DM in women with/without prior GDM after stratifying by FN status, while adjusting for other DM determinants.

Impacts of observation frequency on proximity contact data and modeled transmission dynamics.

Transmission of many communicable diseases depends on proximity contacts among humans. Modeling the dynamics of proximity contacts can help determine whether an outbreak is likely to trigger an epidemic. While the advent of commodity mobile devices has eased the collection of proximity contact data, battery capacity and associated costs impose tradeoffs between the observation frequency and scanning duration used for contact detection.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of maternal immunization against pertussis in Alberta using agent-based modeling: A Canadian immunization research network study.

Introduction: The re-emergence of pertussis has occurred in the past two decades in developed countries. The highest morbidity and mortality is seen among infants. Vaccination in pregnancy is recommended to reduce the pertussis burden in infants.

Health Literacy and Serious or Persistent Mental Illness: A Mixed Methods Study.

Background: Health literacy is increasingly recognized as a major determinant of health; however, our insights into the health literacy strengths and needs of adults living with serious or persistent mental illness remain limited by a notable lack of research in this area. Improving our understanding is important because people in this group are especially vulnerable to numerous negative health outcomes, many preventable.

Objective: To assess the health literacy strengths and needs of people living with serious or persistent mental illness in terms of their ability to acquire, understand, and use information about their illness and the health services they require.

Investigating effective testing strategies for the control of Johne's disease in western Canadian cow-calf herds using an agent-based simulation model.

Johne's disease is an insidious infectious disease of ruminants caused by subspecies (MAP). Johne's disease can have important implications for animal welfare and risks causing economic losses in affected herds due to reduced productivity, premature culling and replacement, and veterinary costs. Despite the limited accuracy of diagnostic tools, testing and culling is the primary option for controlling Johne's disease in beef herds.

Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.

This study systematically reviews applications of three simulation approaches, that is, system dynamics model (SDM), agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES), and their hybrids in COVID-19 research and identifies theoretical and application innovations in public health. Among the 372 eligible papers, 72 focused on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, 204 evaluated both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, 29 focused on the prediction of the pandemic and 67 investigated the impacts of COVID-19. ABM was used in 275 papers, followed by 54 SDM papers, 32 DES papers and 11 hybrid model papers.

Evaluating the impact of community interventions on childhood obesity in populations living in low-income households in Los Angeles: A simulation study.

Background: The complex multifactorial nature of childhood obesity makes community interventions difficult to evaluate using traditional approaches; innovative methods are needed.

Objective: To evaluate the impact of various interventions targeting childhood obesity-related behaviours, and classified as using a micro-level (e.g.

Rural vs urban inequalities in stage at diagnosis for lung cancer.

Objectives: Early diagnosis of lung cancer increases the chance of survival. The aim of this study was to measure the relationship between geographic residence in Saskatchewan and stage of lung cancer at the time of diagnosis.

Materials And Methods: Retrospective cohort analysis of 2,972 patients with a primary diagnosis of either non-small cell cancer (NSCLC) or small cell lung cancer (SCLC) between 2007 and 2012 was performed.

An App-Based Mindfulness-Based Self-compassion Program to Support Caregivers of People With Dementia: Participatory Feasibility Study.

Background: The number of persons with dementia is steadily growing, as is the number of individuals supporting persons with dementia. Primary caregivers of persons with dementia are most often family members or spouses of the persons with dementia, and they are more likely to experience increased stress and other negative effects than individuals who are not primary caregivers. Although in-person support groups have been shown to help buffer the negative impacts of caregiving, some caregivers live in isolated or rural communities and are unable to make the burdensome commitment of traveling to cities.

Tobacco messages encountered in real-time among low socio-economic position groups: a descriptive study.

Background: Tobacco advertising disproportionately targets low socio-economic position (SEP) groups, causing higher rates of tobacco use in this population. Anti-tobacco public health education campaigns persuade against use. This study measured real-time exposure of pro- and anti-tobacco messages from low SEP groups in two American cities.

Point-of-sale cigarette pricing strategies and young adult smokers' intention to purchase cigarettes: an online experiment.

Background: Point-of-sale tobacco marketing has been shown to be related to tobacco use behaviours; however, specific influences of cigarette price discounts, price tiers and pack/carton availability on cigarette purchasing intention are less understood by the tobacco control community.

Methods: We conducted discrete choice experiments among an online sample of US young adult smokers (aged 18-30 years; n=1823). Participants were presented scenarios depicting their presence at a tobacco retail outlet with varying availability of cigarette price discounts, price tiers and pack/carton.

A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence.

According to the 'hardening hypothesis', average nicotine dependence will increase as less dependent smokers quit relatively easily in response to effective public health interventions, so that sustained progress in reducing smoking prevalence will depend on shifting the emphasis of tobacco control programs towards intensive treatment of heavily dependent smokers (who comprise an increasing fraction of continuing smokers). We used a system dynamics model of smoking behaviour to explore the potential for hardening in a population of smokers exposed to effective tobacco control measures over an extended period. Policy-induced increases in the per capita cessation rate are shown to lead inevitably to a decline in the proportion of smokers who are heavily dependent, contrary to the hardening hypothesis.

What We Know Now: An Economic Evaluation of Chickenpox Vaccination and Dose Timing Using an Agent-Based Model.

Objectives: The value of chickenpox vaccination is still debated in the literature and by jurisdictions worldwide. This uncertainty is reflected in the inconsistent uptake of the vaccine, where some countries offer routine childhood immunization programs, others have targeted programs, and in many the vaccine is only privately available. Even across the countries that have universal funding for the vaccine, there is a diversity of schedules and dosing intervals.