Losing ground: projections of climate-driven bloom shifts and their implications for the future of California's almond orchards.

Climate change is expected to impact the spring phenology of perennial trees, potentially altering the suitability of land for their cultivation. In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change on the bloom timing of almond orchards, focusing on California, the world's leading region for almond production. By analyzing historical climatic data, employing a model that considers hourly temperatures and fall non-structural carbohydrates to predict bloom dates, and examining various Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios, we assess the potential impacts of climate shifts on plant phenology and, consequently, on land suitability for almond farming.