A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics.

West Nile virus is predicted to be more geographically widespread in New York State and Connecticut under future climate change.

The effects of climate change on infectious diseases are a topic of considerable interest and discussion. We studied West Nile virus (WNV) in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model climate change scenario, which allows us to examine the effects of climate change and variability on WNV risk at county level. We chose WNV because it is well studied, has caused over 50,000 reported human cases, and over 2200 deaths in the United States.

Seasonal temperatures and hydrological conditions improve the prediction of West Nile virus infection rates in Culex mosquitoes and human case counts in New York and Connecticut.

West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) is a widely distributed arthropod-borne virus that has negatively affected human health and animal populations. WNV infection rates of mosquitoes and human cases have been shown to be correlated with climate. However, previous studies have been conducted at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, and the scale-dependence of these relationships has been understudied.

Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes.

We analyze the future state of Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC), the world's largest tropical ice cap with a summit elevation of 5680 m a.s.l.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity ()-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations.

The Holocene temperature conundrum.

A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198-1201]. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases.