Analysis of peste des petits ruminants virus spread and the risk of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation.

Aim: This study examines methods to effectively control peste des petits ruminants (PPR), an emerging, highly contagious, transboundary disease that has been designated as a highly dangerous disease by the World Organization for Animal Health. Mathematical modeling was used as a predictive and preventive tool to assess the risk of PPR virus spread in the model area and the probability of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation.

Materials And Methods: PPR risk assessment was performed by modeling the pathogen's ecological niche by performing linear regression analysis in the geographic information system ESRI ArcGIS Desktop and maximum entropy methods using MaxEnt software.