COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination: modelling, analysis and simulations.

Despite the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects remain a global challenge including the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Knowledge of the COVID-19 dynamics and its potential trends amidst variations in COVID-19 vaccine coverage is therefore crucial for policy makers in the SSA region where vaccine uptake is generally lower than in high-income countries. Using a compartmental epidemiological model, this study aims to forecast the potential COVID-19 trends and determine how long a wave could be, taking into consideration the current vaccination rates.

Modelling the impact of stigmatisation of Ebola survivors on the disease transmission dynamics.

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is one of the most highly stigmatised diseases in any affected country because of the disease's high infectivity and case fatality rate. Infected individuals and most especially survivors are often stigmatised by their communities for fear of contagion. We propose and analyse a mathematical model to examine the impact of stigmatisation of Ebola survivors on the disease dynamics.

Predicting anti-cancer activity in flavonoids: a graph theoretic approach.

In drug design, there are two major causes of drug failure in the clinic. First, the drug has to work, and second, the drug should be safe. Identifying compounds that work for certain ailments require enormous experimental time and, in general, is cost intensive.

Modelling Botswana's HIV/AIDS response and treatment policy changes: Insights from a cascade of mathematical models.

The management of HIV/AIDS has evolved ever since advent of the disease in the past three decades. Many countries have had to revise their policies as new information on the virus, and its transmission dynamics emerged. In this paper, we track the changes in Botswana's HIV/AIDS response and treatment policies using a piece-wise system of differential equations.

Effect of time-varying adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions on the occurrence of multiple epidemic waves: A modeling study.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) play a central role in infectious disease outbreak response and control. Their usefulness cannot be overstated, especially during the early phases of a new epidemic when vaccines and effective treatments are not available yet. These interventions can be very effective in curtailing the spread of infectious diseases when adequately implemented and sufficiently adopted by the public.

Modelling the potential influence of human migration and two strains on Ebola virus disease dynamics.

Migration of infected animals and humans, and mutation are considered as the source of the introduction of new pathogens and strains into a country. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model of Ebola virus disease dynamics, that describes the introduction of a new strain of ebolavirus, through either mutation or immigration (which can be continuous or impulsive) of infectives. The mathematical analysis of the model shows that when the immigration of infectives is continuous, the new strain invades a country if its invasion reproduction number is greater than one.

Application of optimal control to the dynamics of COVID-19 disease in South Africa.

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) belongs to the beta-coronavirus family, which include: the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Since its outbreak in South Africa in March 2020, it has lead to high mortality and thousands of people contracting the virus. Mathematical analysis of a model without controls was done and the basic reproduction number of the COVID-19 for the South African pandemic determined.

Modelling the Role of Human Behaviour in Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Transmission Dynamics.

The role of human behaviour in the dynamics of infectious diseases cannot be underestimated. A clear understanding of how human behaviour influences the spread of infectious diseases is critical in establishing and designing control measures. To study the role that human behaviour plays in Ebola disease dynamics, in this paper, we design an Ebola virus disease model with disease transmission dynamics based on a new exponential nonlinear incidence function.

A new model for predicting boiling points of alkanes.

A general perception among researchers is that boiling points, which is a key property in the optimization of lubricant performance, are difficult to predict successfully using a single-parameter model. In this contribution, we propose a new graph parameter which we call, for lack of better terminology, the conduction of a graph. We exploit the conduction of a graph to develop a single-parameter model for predicting the boiling point of any given alkane.

Modelling the potential role of media campaigns on the control of Listeriosis.

Human Listeria infection is a food-borne disease caused by the consumption of contaminated food products by the bacterial pathogen, Listeria. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to analyze the impact of media campaigns on the spread and control of Listeriosis. The model exhibited three equilibria namely; disease-free, Listeria-free and endemic equilibria.

A mathematical model for the prediction of the prevalence of allergies in Zimbabwe.

Background: The prevalence of allergies has been observed to be increasing in the past years in Zimbabwe. It is thus important to consider the long term prevalence of allergies. Our interest is in investigating the trends of allergies in the next 2 decades.

An Ebola virus disease model with fear and environmental transmission dynamics.

•Due to its high case fatality rate, EVD undoubtedly instills fear in the inhabitants of any affected community.•We propose an Ebola model with fear, which considers the pathogens in the environment to quantify the effect of fear and environmental transmission on the EVD disease dynamics.•The fear of death from Ebola is proportional to the Ebola disease transmission rate.

Modelling the Potential Impact of Social Distancing on the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa.

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a global health problem whose impact has been significantly felt in South Africa. With the global spread increasing and infecting millions, containment efforts by countries have largely focused on lockdowns and social distancing to minimise contact between persons. Social distancing has been touted as the best form of response in managing a rapid increase in the number of infected cases.

Quantifying early COVID-19 outbreak transmission in South Africa and exploring vaccine efficacy scenarios.

The emergence and fast global spread of COVID-19 has presented one of the greatest public health challenges in modern times with no proven cure or vaccine. Africa is still early in this epidemic, therefore the extent of disease severity is not yet clear. We used a mathematical model to fit to the observed cases of COVID-19 in South Africa to estimate the basic reproductive number and critical vaccination coverage to control the disease for different hypothetical vaccine efficacy scenarios.

Stemming cholera tides in Zimbabwe through mass vaccination.

Background: In 2018, Zimbabwe declared another major cholera outbreak a decade after recording one of the worst cholera outbreaks in Africa.

Methods: A mathematical model for cholera was used to estimate the magnitude of the cholera outbreak and vaccination coverage using cholera cases reported data. A Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on a Bayesian framework was used to fit the model in order to estimate the basic reproductive number and required vaccination coverage for cholera control.

On the efficiency of HIV transmission: Insights through discrete time HIV models.

There are different views on which of the two forms of viral spread is more efficient in vivo between cell-free and cell-associated virus. In this study, discrete time human immunodeficiency virus models are formulated and analysed with the goal of determining the form of viral spread that is more efficient in vivo. It is shown that on its own, cell-free viral spread cannot sustain an infection owing to the low infectivity of cell-free virus and cell-associated virus can sustain an infection because of the high infectivity of cell-associated virus.

Modelling cholera transmission dynamics in the presence of limited resources.

Objectives: We study the transmission dynamics of cholera in the presence of limited resources, a common feature of the developing world. The model is used to gain insight into the impact of available resources of the health care system on the spread and control of the disease. A deterministic model that includes a nonlinear recovery rate is formulated and rigorously analyzed.

Modeling the role of public health education in Ebola virus disease outbreaks in Sudan.

Public involvement in Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) prevention efforts is key to reducing disease outbreaks. Targeted education through practical health information to particular groups and sub-populations is crucial to controlling the disease. In this paper, we study the dynamics of Ebola virus disease in the presence of public health education with the aim of assessing the role of behavior change induced by health education to the dynamics of an outbreak.

Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Meningitis Transmission Dynamics with Control Measures.

Vaccination and treatment are the most effective ways of controlling the transmission of most infectious diseases. While vaccination helps susceptible individuals to build either a long-term immunity or short-term immunity, treatment reduces the number of disease-induced deaths and the number of infectious individuals in a community/nation. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model with time-dependent controls has been proposed to describe the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a population.

Assessing the potential impact of limited public health resources on the spread and control of typhoid.

Typhoid fever is a systemic infection caused by Salmonella Typhi and occurs predominantly in association with poor sanitation and lack of clean drinking water. Despite recent progress in water and sanitation coverage, the disease remains a substantial public health problem in many developing countries. A mathematical model for the spread of typhoid has been formulated using non linear ordinary differential equations.

Application of optimal control to the onchocerciasis transmission model with treatment.

In this paper, we present a model for onchocerciasis that considers mass administration of ivermectin, contact prevention controls and vector elimination. The model equilibria are computed and stability analysis carried out in terms of the basic reproduction number R. The model is found to exhibit a backward bifurcation so that for R less than unity is not sufficient to eradicate the disease from the population and the need is to lower R to below a certain threshold, R for effective disease control.

Modelling the role of correctional services on gangs: insights through a mathematical model.

Research has shown that gang membership increases the chances of offending, antisocial behaviour and drug use. Gang membership should be acknowledged as part of crime prevention and policy designs, and when developing interventions and preventative programmes. Correctional services are designed to rehabilitate convicted offenders.

A Systems Dynamic Model for Drug Abuse and Drug-Related Crime in the Western Cape Province of South Africa.

The complex problem of drug abuse and drug-related crimes in communities in the Western Cape province cannot be studied in isolation but through the system they are embedded in. In this paper, a theoretical model to evaluate the syndemic of substance abuse and drug-related crimes within the Western Cape province of South Africa is constructed and explored. The dynamics of drug abuse and drug-related crimes within the Western Cape are simulated using STELLA software.

On the Role of Imitation on Adolescence Methamphetamine Abuse Dynamics.

Adolescence methamphetamine use is an issue of considerable concern due to its correlation with later delinquency, divorce, unemployment and health problems. Understanding how adolescents initiate methamphetamine abuse is important in developing effective prevention programs. We formulate a mathematical model for the spread of methamphetamine abuse using nonlinear ordinary differential equations.