Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise.

Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns will depend on the amount of sea-level rise; future socioeconomic development; and adaptation strategies pursued to reduce exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise. To explore spatial feedbacks between these drivers, we combine sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and assumptions on adaptation policies in a spatially-explicit model ('CONCLUDE'). Using the Mediterranean region as a case study, we find up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 if no adaptation policies are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries.