Evolution of system connectivity to support food production in the Indus Basin in Pakistan.

Sustainability challenges related to food production arise from multiple nature-society interactions occurring over long time periods. Traditional methods of quantitative analysis do not represent long-term changes in the networks of system components, including institutions and knowledge that affect system behavior. Here, we develop an approach to study system structure and evolution by combining a qualitative framework that represents sustainability-relevant human, technological, and environmental components, and their interactions, mediated by knowledge and institutions, with network modeling that enables quantitative metrics.

Deforestation as an Anthropogenic Driver of Mercury Pollution.

Deforestation reduces the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to take up toxic pollutant mercury (Hg) and enhances the release of secondary Hg from soils. The consequences of deforestation for Hg cycling are not currently considered by anthropogenic emission inventories or specifically addressed under the global Minamata Convention on Mercury. Using global Hg modeling constrained by field observations, we estimate that net Hg fluxes to the atmosphere due to deforestation are 217 Mg year (95% confidence interval (CI): 134-1650 Mg year) for 2015, approximately 10% of global primary anthropogenic emissions.

Air quality related equity implications of U.S. decarbonization policy.

Climate policies that target greenhouse gas emissions can improve air quality by reducing co-emitted air pollutant emissions. However, the extent to which climate policy could contribute to the targets of reducing existing pollution disparities across different populations remains largely unknown. We quantify potential air pollution exposure reductions under U.

Rapid Estimation of Climate-Air Quality Interactions in Integrated Assessment Using a Response Surface Model.

Air quality and climate change are substantial and linked sustainability challenges, and there is a need for improved tools to assess the implications of addressing these challenges together. Due to the high computational cost of accurately assessing these challenges, integrated assessment models (IAMs) used in policy development often use global- or regional-scale marginal response factors to calculate air quality impacts of climate scenarios. We bridge the gap between IAMs and high-fidelity simulation by developing a computationally efficient approach to quantify how combined climate and air quality interventions affect air quality outcomes, including capturing spatial heterogeneity and complex atmospheric chemistry.

Nuclear power generation phase-outs redistribute US air quality and climate-related mortality risk.

We explore how nuclear shut-downs in the United States could affect air pollution, climate and health with existing and alternative grid infrastructure. We develop a dispatch model to estimate emissions of CO, NO and SO from each electricity-generating unit, feeding these emissions into a chemical transport model to calculate effects on ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM). Our scenario of removing nuclear power results in compensation by coal, gas and oil, resulting in increases in PM and ozone that lead to an extra 5,200 annual mortalities.

Statistical and machine learning methods for evaluating trends in air quality under changing meteorological conditions.

Evaluating the influence of anthropogenic-emission changes on air quality requires accounting for the influence of meteorological variability. Statistical methods such as multiple linear regression (MLR) models with basic meteorological variables are often used to remove meteorological variability and estimate trends in measured pollutant concentrations attributable to emission changes. However, the ability of these widely used statistical approaches to correct for meteorological variability remains unknown, limiting their usefulness in the real-world policy evaluations.

Impacts of wind power on air quality, premature mortality, and exposure disparities in the United States.

Understanding impacts of renewable energy on air quality and associated human exposures is essential for informing future policy. We estimate the impacts of U.S.

Evaluating atmospheric mercury (Hg) uptake by vegetation in a chemistry-transport model.

Mercury (Hg), a neurotoxic heavy metal, is transferred to marine and terrestrial ecosystems through atmospheric transport. Recent studies have highlighted the role of vegetation uptake as a sink for atmospheric elemental mercury (Hg) and a source of Hg to soils. However, the global magnitude of the Hg vegetation uptake flux is highly uncertain, with estimates ranging 1000-4000 Mg per year.

What are the likely changes in mercury concentration in the Arctic atmosphere and ocean under future emissions scenarios?

Arctic mercury (Hg) concentrations respond to changes in anthropogenic Hg emissions and environmental change. This manuscript, prepared for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Mercury Assessment, explores the response of Arctic Ocean Hg concentrations to changing primary Hg emissions and to changing sea-ice cover, river inputs, and net primary production. To do this, we conduct a model analysis using a 2015 Hg inventory and future anthropogenic Hg emission scenarios.

The Parallel Transformations of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Body and in the Atmosphere.

Background: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emitted from combustion sources are known to be mutagenic, with more potent species also being carcinogenic. Previous studies show that PAHs can undergo complex transformations both in the body and in the atmosphere, yet these transformation processes are generally investigated separately.

Objectives: Drawing from the literature in atmospheric chemistry and toxicology, we highlight the parallel transformations of PAHs that occur in the atmosphere and the body and discuss implications for public health.

Global Cancer Risk From Unregulated Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons.

In assessments of cancer risk from atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), scientists and regulators rarely consider the complex mixture of emitted compounds and degradation products, and they often represent the entire mixture using a single emitted compound-benzo[a]pyrene. Here, we show that benzo[a]pyrene is a poor indicator of PAH risk distribution and management: nearly 90% of cancer risk worldwide results from other PAHs, including unregulated degradation products of emitted PAHs. We develop and apply a global-scale atmospheric model and conduct health impact analyses to estimate human cancer risk from 16 PAHs and several of their N-PAH degradation products.

Lessons from a pandemic for systems-oriented sustainability research.

This review examines research on environmental impacts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from a systems-oriented sustainability perspective, focusing on three areas: air quality and human health, climate change, and production and consumption. The review assesses whether and how this COVID-19-focused research (i) examines components of an integrated system; (ii) accounts for interactions including complex, adaptive dynamics; and (iii) is oriented to informing action. It finds that this research to date has not comprehensively accounted for complex, coupled interactions, especially involving societal factors, potentially leading to erroneous conclusions and hampering efforts to draw broader insights across sustainability-relevant domains.

Improving Evaluation of Energy Policies with Multiple Goals: Comparing Ex Ante and Ex Post Approaches.

Sustainability policies are often motivated by the potential to achieve multiple goals, such as simultaneously mitigating the climate change and air quality impacts of energy use. Ex ante analysis is used prospectively to inform policy decisions by estimating a policy's impact on multiple objectives. In contrast, ex post analysis of impacts that may have multiple causes can retrospectively evaluate the effectiveness of policies.

A global atmospheric chemistry model for the fate and transport of PFCAs and their precursors.

Perfluorocarboxylic acids (PFCAs) are environmental contaminants that are highly persistent, and many are bio-accumulative and have been detected along with their atmospheric precursors far from emission sources. The overall importance of precursor emissions as an indirect source of PFCAs to the environment is uncertain. Previous studies have estimated the atmospheric source of PFCAs using models and degradation pathways of differing complexities, leading to quantitatively different results.

Mercury Benefits of Climate Policy in China: Addressing the Paris Agreement and the Minamata Convention Simultaneously.

National commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change interact with other global environmental objectives, such as those of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. We assess how mercury emissions and deposition reductions from national climate policy in China under the Paris Agreement could contribute to the country's commitments under the Minamata Convention. We examine emissions under climate policy scenarios developed using a computable general equilibrium model of China's economy, end-of-pipe control scenarios that meet China's commitments under the Minamata Convention, and these policies in combination, and evaluate deposition using a global atmospheric transport model.

Researcher engagement in policy deemed societally beneficial yet unrewarded.

Maintaining the continued flow of benefits from science, as well as societal support for science, requires sustained engagement between the research community and the general public. On the basis of data from an international survey of 1092 participants (634 established researchers and 458 students) in 55 countries and 315 research institutions, we found that institutional recognition of engagement activities is perceived to be undervalued relative to the societal benefit of those activities. Many researchers report that their institutions do not reward engagement activities despite institutions' mission statements promoting such engagement.

Global and Local Impacts of Delayed Mercury Mitigation Efforts.

Mercury (Hg) is emitted to air by natural and anthropogenic sources, transports and deposits globally, and bioaccumulates to toxic levels in food webs. It is addressed under the global 2017 Minamata Convention, for which periodic effectiveness evaluation is required. Previous analyses have estimated the impact of different regulatory strategies for future mercury deposition.

Understanding factors influencing the detection of mercury policies in modelled Laurentian Great Lakes wet deposition.

We used chemical transport modelling to better understand the extent to which policy-related anthropogenic mercury emissions changes (a policy signal) can be statistically detected in wet deposition measurements in the Great Lakes region on the subdecadal scale, given sources of noise. In our modelling experiment, we consider hypothetical regional (North American) and global (rest of the world) policy changes, consistent with existing policy efforts (Δglobal = -18%; Δregional = -30%) that divide an eight-year period. The magnitude of statistically significant (p < 0.

A Critical Time for Mercury Science to Inform Global Policy.

Mercury is a global pollutant released into the biosphere by varied human activities including coal combustion, mining, artisanal gold mining, cement production, and chemical production. Once released to air, land and water, the addition of carbon atoms to mercury by bacteria results in the production of methylmercury, the toxic form that bioaccumulates in aquatic and terrestrial food chains resulting in elevated exposure to humans and wildlife. Global recognition of the mercury contamination problem has resulted in the Minamata Convention on Mercury, which came into force in 2017.