Viral maintenance and excretion dynamics of coronaviruses within an Egyptian rousette fruit bat maternal colony: considerations for spillover.

Novel coronavirus species of public health and veterinary importance have emerged in the first two decades of the twenty-first century, with bats identified as natural hosts for progenitors of many coronaviruses. Targeted wildlife surveillance is needed to identify the factors involved in viral perpetuation within natural host populations, and drivers of interspecies transmission. We monitored a natural colony of Egyptian rousette bats at monthly intervals across two years to identify circulating coronaviruses, and to investigate shedding dynamics and viral maintenance within the colony.

Global patterns and correlates in the emergence of antimicrobial resistance in humans.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a critical global health threat, and drivers of the emergence of novel strains of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in humans are poorly understood at the global scale. We examined correlates of AMR emergence in humans using global data on the origins of novel strains of AMR bacteria from 2006 to 2017, human and livestock antibiotic use, country economic activity and reporting bias indicators. We found that AMR emergence is positively correlated with antibiotic consumption in humans.

Enhanced surveillance of monkeypox in Bas-Uélé, Democratic Republic of Congo: the limitations of symptom-based case definitions.

Background: Following an outbreak of cases of vesicular-pustular rash with fever, evocative of human monkeypox, in Bas-Uélé province, Democratic Republic of Congo, surveillance was strengthened.

Methods: Households with at least one active generalized vesicular-pustular rash case were visited, and contact and clinical history information were collected from all household members. Whenever possible, skin lesions were screened by polymerase chain reaction for the monkeypox virus, followed by the varicella-zoster virus, when negative for the former.

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk.

At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence.

A global repository of novel antimicrobial emergence events.

Despite considerable global surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), data on the global emergence of new resistance genotypes in bacteria has not been systematically compiled. We conducted a study of English-language scientific literature (2006-2017) and ProMED-mail disease surveillance reports (1994-2017) to identify global events of novel AMR emergence (first clinical reports of unique drug-bacteria resistance combinations). We screened 24,966 abstracts and reports, ultimately identifying 1,757 novel AMR emergence events from 268 peer-reviewed studies and 26 disease surveillance reports (294 total).

The future of zoonotic risk prediction.

In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions.

Farm-Level Risk Factors of Increased Abortion and Mortality in Domestic Ruminants during the 2010 Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Central South Africa.

(1) Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in domestic ruminants have severe socio-economic impacts. Climate-based continental predictions providing early warnings to regions at risk for RVF outbreaks are not of a high enough resolution for ruminant owners to assess their individual risk. (2) Methods: We analyzed risk factors for RVF occurrence and severity at the farm level using the number of domestic ruminant deaths and abortions reported by farmers in central South Africa during the 2010 RVF outbreaks using a Bayesian multinomial hurdle framework.

Nipah virus dynamics in bats and implications for spillover to humans.

Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging bat-borne zoonotic virus that causes near-annual outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in South Asia-one of the most populous regions on Earth. In Bangladesh, infection occurs when people drink date-palm sap contaminated with bat excreta. Outbreaks are sporadic, and the influence of viral dynamics in bats on their temporal and spatial distribution is poorly understood.

Human-animal interactions and bat coronavirus spillover potential among rural residents in Southern China.

Human interaction with animals has been implicated as a primary risk factor for several high impact zoonoses, including many bat-origin viral diseases. However the animal-to-human spillover events that lead to emerging diseases are rarely observed or clinically examined, and the link between specific interactions and spillover risk is poorly understood. To investigate this phenomenon, we conducted biological-behavioral surveillance among rural residents in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong districts of Southern China, where we have identified a number of SARS-related coronaviruses in bats.

Predicting the global mammalian viral sharing network using phylogeography.

Understanding interspecific viral transmission is key to understanding viral ecology and evolution, disease spillover into humans, and the consequences of global change. Prior studies have uncovered macroecological drivers of viral sharing, but analyses have never attempted to predict viral sharing in a pan-mammalian context. Using a conservative modelling framework, we confirm that host phylogenetic similarity and geographic range overlap are strong, nonlinear predictors of viral sharing among species across the entire mammal class.

United States wildlife and wildlife product imports from 2000-2014.

The global wildlife trade network is a massive system that has been shown to threaten biodiversity, introduce non-native species and pathogens, and cause chronic animal welfare concerns. Despite its scale and impact, comprehensive characterization of the global wildlife trade is hampered by data that are limited in their temporal or taxonomic scope and detail. To help fill this gap, we present data on 15 years of the importation of wildlife and their derived products into the United States (2000-2014), originally collected by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service.

Hierarchical generalized additive models in ecology: an introduction with mgcv.

In this paper, we discuss an extension to two popular approaches to modeling complex structures in ecological data: the generalized additive model (GAM) and the hierarchical model (HGLM). The hierarchical GAM (HGAM), allows modeling of nonlinear functional relationships between covariates and outcomes where the shape of the function itself varies between different grouping levels. We describe the theoretical connection between HGAMs, HGLMs, and GAMs, explain how to model different assumptions about the degree of intergroup variability in functional response, and show how HGAMs can be readily fitted using existing GAM software, the package in R.

The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife.

Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions.

Promise and Pitfalls of Endemic Resistance for Cultural Resources Threatened by .

Invasive forest pathogens can harm cultural, economic, and ecological resources. Here, we demonstrate the potential of endemic tree pathogen resistance in forest disease management using , cause of sudden oak death, in the context of management of tanoak (), an ecologically unique and highly valued tree within Native American communities of northern California and southern Oregon in the United States. We surveyed resistance to on the Hoopa Valley Indian Reservation and Yurok Indian Reservation in a set of study sites with variable management intensities.

Benefits of a one health approach: An example using Rift Valley fever.

One Health has been promoted by international institutions as a framework to improve public health outcomes. Despite strong overall interest in One Health, country-, local- and project-level implementation remains limited, likely due to the lack of pragmatic and tested operational methods for implementation and metrics for evaluation. Here we use Rift Valley fever virus as an example to demonstrate the value of using a One Health approach for both scientific and resources advantages.

Erratum: Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nature22975.

Human-Wildlife Interactions Predict Febrile Illness in Park Landscapes of Western Uganda.

Fevers of unknown origin complicate treatment and prevention of infectious diseases and are a global health burden. We examined risk factors of self-reported fever-categorized as "malarial" and "nonmalarial"-in households adjacent to national parks across the Ugandan Albertine Rift, a biodiversity and emerging infectious disease hotspot. Statistical models fitted to these data suggest that perceived nonmalarial fevers of unknown origin were associated with more frequent direct contact with wildlife and with increased distance from parks where wildlife habitat is limited to small forest fragments.

One Health Economics to confront disease threats.

Global economic impacts of epidemics suggest high return on investment in prevention and One Health capacity. However, such investments remain limited, contributing to persistent endemic diseases and vulnerability to emerging ones. An interdisciplinary workshop explored methods for country-level analysis of added value of One Health approaches to disease control.

Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals.

The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS). Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries.