Cranes soar on thermal updrafts behind cold fronts as they migrate across the sea.

Thermal soaring conditions above the sea have long been assumed absent or too weak for terrestrial migrating birds, forcing obligate soarers to take long detours and avoid sea-crossing, and facultative soarers to cross exclusively by costly flapping flight. Thus, while atmospheric convection does develop at sea and is used by some seabirds, it has been largely ignored in avian migration research. Here, we provide direct evidence for routine thermal soaring over open sea in the common crane, the heaviest facultative soarer known among terrestrial migrating birds.

A comparison of COVID-19 outbreaks across US Combined Statistical Areas using new methods for estimating R and social distancing behaviour.

We investigated the initial outbreak rates and subsequent social distancing behaviour over the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic across 29 Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs) of the United States. We used the Numerus Model Builder Data and Simulation Analysis (NMB-DASA) web application to fit the exponential phase of a SCLAIV+D (Susceptible, Contact, Latent, Asymptomatic infectious, symptomatic Infectious, Vaccinated, Dead) disease classes model to outbreaks, thereby allowing us to obtain an estimate of the basic reproductive number R for each CSA. Values of R ranged from 1.

Ensemble machine learning of factors influencing COVID-19 across US counties.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) the causal agent for COVID-19, is a communicable disease spread through close contact. It is known to disproportionately impact certain communities due to both biological susceptibility and inequitable exposure. In this study, we investigate the most important health, social, and environmental factors impacting the early phases (before July, 2020) of per capita COVID-19 transmission and per capita all-cause mortality in US counties.

A versatile web app for identifying the drivers of COVID-19 epidemics.

Background: No versatile web app exists that allows epidemiologists and managers around the world to comprehensively analyze the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation. The http://covid-webapp.numerusinc.

The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer.

Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual-based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth.

Mass seasonal bioflows of high-flying insect migrants.

Migrating animals have an impact on ecosystems directly via influxes of predators, prey, and competitors and indirectly by vectoring nutrients, energy, and pathogens. Although linkages between vertebrate movements and ecosystem processes have been established, the effects of mass insect "bioflows" have not been described. We quantified biomass flux over the southern United Kingdom for high-flying (>150 meters) insects and show that ~3.

Decision-making by a soaring bird: time, energy and risk considerations at different spatio-temporal scales.

Natural selection theory suggests that mobile animals trade off time, energy and risk costs with food, safety and other pay-offs obtained by movement. We examined how birds make movement decisions by integrating aspects of flight biomechanics, movement ecology and behaviour in a hierarchical framework investigating flight track variation across several spatio-temporal scales. Using extensive global positioning system and accelerometer data from Eurasian griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus) in Israel and France, we examined soaring-gliding decision-making by comparing inbound versus outbound flights (to or from a central roost, respectively), and these (and other) home-range foraging movements (up to 300 km) versus long-range movements (longer than 300 km).

Adult vultures outperform juveniles in challenging thermal soaring conditions.

Due to the potentially detrimental consequences of low performance in basic functional tasks, individuals are expected to improve performance with age and show the most marked changes during early stages of life. Soaring-gliding birds use rising-air columns (thermals) to reduce energy expenditure allocated to flight. We offer a framework to evaluate thermal soaring performance, and use GPS-tracking to study movements of Eurasian griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus).

Commuting fruit bats beneficially modulate their flight in relation to wind.

When animals move, their tracks may be strongly influenced by the motion of air or water, and this may affect the speed, energetics and prospects of the journey. Flying organisms, such as bats, may thus benefit from modifying their flight in response to the wind vector. Yet, practical difficulties have so far limited the understanding of this response for free-ranging bats.

The gliding speed of migrating birds: slow and safe or fast and risky?

Aerodynamic theory postulates that gliding airspeed, a major flight performance component for soaring avian migrants, scales with bird size and wing morphology. We tested this prediction, and the role of gliding altitude and soaring conditions, using atmospheric simulations and radar tracks of 1346 birds from 12 species. Gliding airspeed did not scale with bird size and wing morphology, and unexpectedly converged to a narrow range.

Migration by soaring or flapping: numerical atmospheric simulations reveal that turbulence kinetic energy dictates bee-eater flight mode.

Aerial migrants commonly face atmospheric dynamics that may affect their movement and behaviour. Specifically, bird flight mode has been suggested to depend on convective updraught availability and tailwind assistance. However, this has not been tested thus far since both bird tracks and meteorological conditions are difficult to measure in detail throughout extended migratory flyways.

Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments.

Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread.

Understanding strategies for seed dispersal by wind under contrasting atmospheric conditions.

Traits associated with seed dispersal vary tremendously among sympatric wind-dispersed plants. We used two contrasting tropical tree species, seed traps, micrometeorology, and a mechanistic model to evaluate how variation in four key traits affects seed dispersal by wind. The conceptual framework of movement ecology, wherein external factors (wind) interact with internal factors (plant traits) that enable movement and determine when and where movement occurs, fully captures the variable inputs and outputs of wind dispersal models and informs their interpretation.