Judgments in the Sharing Economy: The Effect of User-Generated Trust and Reputation Information on Decision-Making Accuracy and Bias.

The growing ecosystem of peer-to-peer enterprise - the Sharing Economy (SE) - has brought with it a substantial change in how we access and provide goods and services. Within the SE, individuals make decisions based mainly on user-generated trust and reputation information (TRI). Recent research indicates that the use of such information tends to produce a positivity bias in the perceived trustworthiness of fellow users.

Behavioral Fatigue: Real Phenomenon, Naïve Construct, or Policy Contrivance?

In some countries, government policies to combat Covid-19 have been based on the notion that behavioral fatigue prevents people maintaining self-isolation and other restrictions to their life styles for more than a short time. By 16 March 2020, 681 United Kingdom behavioral scientists had signed an open letter to their government asking it to reveal the evidence that shows that behavioral fatigue exists. Nothing was forthcoming.

Digital Identity: The effect of trust and reputation information on user judgement in the Sharing Economy.

The Sharing Economy (SE) is a growing ecosystem focusing on peer-to-peer enterprise. In the SE the information available to assist individuals (users) in making decisions focuses predominantly on community-generated trust and reputation information. However, how such information impacts user judgement is still being understood.

Task complexity moderates the influence of descriptions in decisions from experience.

Decisions-makers often have access to a combination of descriptive and experiential information, but limited research so far has explored decisions made using both. Three experiments explore the relationship between task complexity and the influence of descriptions. We show that in simple experience-based decision-making tasks, providing congruent descriptions has little influence on task performance in comparison to experience alone without descriptions, since learning via experience is relatively easy.

Assessing Risk in Graphically Presented Financial Series.

It has been argued that traders use their natural sensitivity to the fractal properties of price graphs to assess risk and that they are better able to do this when given price change as well as price level information. This approach implies that risk assessments should be higher when the Hurst exponents are lower, that this relationship should be stronger in the presence of price change information and that risk assessment should depend more strongly on the Hurst exponent than on the standard deviation of the series. Participants in Experiment 1 decided which of two assets was riskier by inspecting graphs of their price series.

Carry on winning: no selection effect.

The methods proposed by Demaree, Weaver and Juergensen (2014) are not the most appropriate for testing for the presence of a selection effect. We use a simple and straightforward method to demonstrate that the data are not consistent with such an effect.

Carry on winning: the gamblers' fallacy creates hot hand effects in online gambling.

People suffering from the hot-hand fallacy unreasonably expect winning streaks to continue whereas those suffering from the gamblers' fallacy unreasonably expect losing streaks to reverse. We took 565,915 sports bets made by 776 online gamblers in 2010 and analyzed all winning and losing streaks up to a maximum length of six. People who won were more likely to win again (apparently because they chose safer odds than before) whereas those who lost were more likely to lose again (apparently because they chose riskier odds than before).

Depletable resources: necessary, in need of fair treatment, and multi-functional.

I make three points. First, processors and depletable resources should not be regarded as alternative means of processing information: they are both necessary. Second, comparing a processor account with a rational allocation mechanism to a depletable-resources account without one is not a fair comparison.

Effects of shopping addiction on consumer decision-making: Web-based studies in real time.

Background and aims Most research into compulsive buying has focused on its causes: questionnaires have been used to study its association with various factors assumed to be important in its etiology. Few studies have dealt with the effects of being a compulsive buyer on shopping decisions. Also, processes underlying compulsive buying are dynamic but questionnaires give access only to a retrospective view of them from the standpoint of the participant.

Trend damping: Under-adjustment, experimental artifact, or adaptation to features of the natural environment?

People's forecasts from time series underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones. This trend damping may occur because (a) people anchor on the last data point and make insufficient adjustment to take the trend into account, (b) they adjust toward the average of the trends they have encountered within the experiment, or (c) they are adapted to an environment in which natural trends tend to be damped. Two experiments eliminated the first account: For series that are negatively accelerated or have shallow slopes, people showed anti-damping (the opposite of damping), a phenomenon that cannot be interpreted in terms of under-adjustment.

The impact of discredited evidence.

How do people revise their beliefs when evidence is discredited? In three studies, mock jurors read simplified criminal cases and then judged the probability that a suspect was guilty on the basis of sequentially presented evidence. Study 1 showed an extension effect: When two items of incriminating evidence were presented, a subsequent discrediting of the second item also lessened belief in the first item, irrespective of whether it was directly related to the discredited item. Study 2 showed that this effect depended on the order of evidence presentation: When the discrediting evidence was presented early, rather than late, in the sequence, there was no extension to unrelated items.

Biased forecasting of postdecisional affect.

Although anticipated postdecisional regret is a significant contributor to people's decision-making processes, the accuracy of people's regret forecasts has yet to be assessed systematically. Here we report two studies to fill this lacuna. In Study 1, we found that subjects who made reasonably high offers overpredicted the regret that they experienced after they unexpectedly failed at a negotiation.

Regret triggers inaction inertia--but which regret and how?

When people miss a good bargain, they are less likely to take a subsequent one that is not as good. This phenomenon is termed inaction inertia. Two regret-based explanations of it have been proposed.

Which doctors are influenced by a patient's age? A multi-method study of angina treatment in general practice, cardiology and gerontology.

Background: Elderly patients with cardiovascular disease are relatively undertreated and undertested.

Objectives: To investigate whether, and how, individual doctors are influenced by a patient's age in their investigation and treatment of angina.

Design: Process-based judgment analysis using electronic patients, semistructured interviews.

Predicting preferences: a neglected aspect of shared decision-making.

In recent years, shared decision-making between patients and doctors regarding choice of treatment has become an issue of priority. Although patients' preferences lie at the core of the literature on shared decision-making, there has not been any attempt so far to link the concept of shared decision-making with the extensive behavioural literature on people's self-predictions of their future preferences. The aim of the present review is to provide this link.

Variations in cardiac interventions: doctors' practices and views.

Objectives: To investigate referral rates for cardiac interventions by clinical specialty, to document doctors' reasons for referrals and to explore doctors' perceptions of the factors that influenced their clinical decisions.

Study Design: Doctors completed a clinical decision-making exercise involving, in total, 6093 electronic patients with cardiac disease, and subsequently took part in the semi-structured interviews about influences on their decisions. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and coded using a thematic approach, with the coding categories derived from the data.

Assessing the likelihood of an important clinical outcome: new insights from a comparison of clinical and actuarial judgment.

Purpose: To assess and rank the performance of different methods of predicting the probability of death following a specified surgical procedure.

Method: Actuarial estimates of the probability of early mortality for 40 patients were derived from 2 sources: a large published surgical series and a smaller series from the center where surgery was performed. Surgeons and cardiologists also provided probability estimates for these patients.