Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB outcomes in the United States: a Bayesian analysis.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) cases and deaths in the United States fluctuated substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed multiple data sources to understand the factors contributing to these changes and estimated future TB trends.

Methods: We identified four mechanisms potentially contributing to observed TB trends during 2020-2023: immigration, respiratory contact rates, rates of accurate diagnosis and treatment initiation, and mortality rates for persons with TB disease.

Estimated Health and Economic Outcomes of Racial and Ethnic Tuberculosis Disparities in US-Born Persons.

Importance: Despite significant progress made toward tuberculosis (TB) elimination, racial and ethnic disparities persist in TB incidence and case-fatality rates in the US.

Objective: To estimate the health outcomes and economic cost of TB disparities among US-born persons from 2023 to 2035.

Design, Setting, And Participants: Generalized additive regression models projecting trends in TB incidence and case-fatality rates from 2023 to 2035 were fit based on national TB surveillance data for 2010 to 2019 in the 50 US states and the District of Columbia among US-born persons.

The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: For settings with low tuberculosis incidence, disease elimination is a long-term goal. We investigated pathways to tuberculosis pre-elimination (incidence <1·0 cases per 100 000 people) and elimination (incidence <0·1 cases per 100 000 people) in the USA, where incidence was estimated at 2·9 per 100 000 people in 2023.

Methods: Using a mathematical modelling framework, we simulated how US tuberculosis incidence could be affected by changes in tuberculosis services in the countries of origin for future migrants to the USA, as well as changes in tuberculosis services inside the USA.

Risk factors underlying racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes, 2011-19: a multiple mediation analysis of national surveillance data.

Background: Despite an overall decline in tuberculosis incidence and mortality in the USA in the past two decades, racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis outcomes persist. We aimed to examine the extent to which inequalities in health and neighbourhood-level social vulnerability mediate these disparities.

Methods: We extracted data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System on individuals with tuberculosis during 2011-19.

Combining genomic data and infection estimates to characterize the complex dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the US.

Omicron surged as a variant of concern in late 2021. Several distinct Omicron variants appeared and overtook each other. We combined variant frequencies and infection estimates from a nowcasting model for each US state to estimate variant-specific infections, attack rates, and effective reproduction numbers (R).

Disparities in Tuberculosis Incidence by Race and Ethnicity Among the U.S.-Born Population in the United States, 2011 to 2021 : An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data.

Background: Elevated tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates have recently been reported for racial/ethnic minority populations in the United States. Tracking such disparities is important for assessing progress toward national health equity goals and implementing change.

Objective: To quantify trends in racial/ethnic disparities in TB incidence among U.

Estimated rates of progression to tuberculosis disease for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the United States.

Background: In the United States, over 80% of tuberculosis (TB) disease cases are estimated to result from reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) acquired more than 2 years previously ("reactivation TB"). We estimated reactivation TB rates for the US population with LTBI, overall, by age, sex, race-ethnicity, and US-born status, and for selected comorbidities (diabetes, end-stage renal disease, and HIV).

Methods: We collated nationally representative data for 2011-2012.

Observational studies generate misleading results about the health effects of air pollution: Evidence from chronic air pollution and COVID-19 outcomes.

Several observational studies from locations around the globe have documented a positive correlation between air pollution and the severity of COVID-19 disease. Observational studies cannot identify the causal link between air quality and the severity of COVID-19 outcomes, and these studies face three key identification challenges: 1) air pollution is not randomly distributed across geographies; 2) air-quality monitoring networks are sparse spatially; and 3) defensive behaviors to mediate exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 are not equally available to all, leading to large measurement error bias when using rate-based COVID-19 outcome measures (e.g.

Tabby2: a user-friendly web tool for forecasting state-level TB outcomes in the United States.

Background: In the United States, the tuberculosis (TB) disease burden and associated factors vary substantially across states. While public health agencies must choose how to deploy resources to combat TB and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), state-level modeling analyses to inform policy decisions have not been widely available.

Methods: We developed a mathematical model of TB epidemiology linked to a web-based user interface - Tabby2.

Changes in Population Immunity Against Infection and Severe Disease From Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variants in the United States Between December 2021 and November 2022.

Background: Although a substantial fraction of the US population was infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during December 2021-February 2022, the subsequent evolution of population immunity reflects the competing influences of waning protection over time and acquisition or restoration of immunity through additional infections and vaccinations.

Methods: Using a Bayesian evidence synthesis model of reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) data (diagnoses, hospitalizations), vaccinations, and waning patterns for vaccine- and infection-acquired immunity, we estimate population immunity against infection and severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States, by location (national, state, county) and week.

Results: By 9 November 2022, 97% (95%-99%) of the US population were estimated to have prior immunological exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

Changes in population immunity against infection and severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States between December 2021 and November 2022.

Importance: While a substantial fraction of the US population was infected with SARS-CoV-2 during December 2021 - February 2022, the subsequent evolution of population immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants reflects the competing influences of waning protection over time and acquisition or restoration of immunity through additional infections and vaccinations.

Objective: To estimate changes in population immunity against infection and severe disease due to circulating SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States from December 2021 to November 2022, and to quantify the protection against a potential 2022-2023 winter SARS-CoV-2 wave.

Design Setting Participants: Bayesian evidence synthesis of reported COVID-19 data (diagnoses, hospitalizations), vaccinations, and waning patterns for vaccine- and infection-acquired immunity, using a mathematical model of COVID-19 natural history.

Reconstructing the course of the COVID-19 epidemic over 2020 for US states and counties: Results of a Bayesian evidence synthesis model.

Reported COVID-19 cases and deaths provide a delayed and incomplete picture of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States (US). Accurate estimates of both the timing and magnitude of infections are needed to characterize viral transmission dynamics and better understand COVID-19 disease burden. We estimated time trends in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and other COVID-19 outcomes for every county in the US, from the first reported COVID-19 case in January 13, 2020 through January 1, 2021.

Population Immunity to Pre-Omicron and Omicron Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants in US States and Counties Through 1 December 2021.

Background: Both severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination contribute to population-level immunity against SARS-CoV-2. This study estimated the immunological exposure and effective protection against future SARS-CoV-2 infection in each US state and county over 2020-2021 and how this changed with the introduction of the Omicron variant.

Methods: We used a Bayesian model to synthesize estimates of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, vaccination data and estimates of the relative rates of vaccination conditional on infection status to estimate the fraction of the population with (1) immunological exposure to SARS-CoV-2 (ever infected with SARS-CoV-2 and/or received ≥1 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine), (2) effective protection against infection, and (3) effective protection against severe disease, for each US state and county from 1 January 2020 to 1 December 2021.

Population immunity to pre-Omicron and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants in US states and counties through December 1, 2021.

Unlabelled: Prior infection and vaccination both contribute to population-level SARS-CoV-2 immunity. We used a Bayesian model to synthesize evidence and estimate population immunity to prevalent SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United States over the course of the epidemic until December 1, 2021, and how this changed with the introduction of the Omicron variant. We used daily SARS-CoV-2 infection estimates and vaccination coverage data for each US state and county.

Reconstructing the course of the COVID-19 epidemic over 2020 for US states and counties: results of a Bayesian evidence synthesis model.

Reported COVID-19 cases and deaths provide a delayed and incomplete picture of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States (US). Accurate estimates of both the timing and magnitude of infections are needed to characterize viral transmission dynamics and better understand COVID-19 disease burden. We estimated time trends in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and other COVID-19 outcomes for every county in the US, from the first reported COVID-19 case in January 13, 2020 through January 1, 2021.

Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States.

Background: Risk of tuberculosis (TB) declines over time since Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but progression to clinical disease is still possible decades later. In the United States, most TB cases result from the progression of latent TB infection acquired over 2 years ago.

Methods: We synthesized evidence on TB natural history and incidence trends using a transmission-dynamic model.

Impact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States.

Most U.S. residents who develop tuberculosis (TB) were born abroad, and U.