Surveillance for TB drug resistance using routine rapid diagnostic testing data: Methodological development and application in Brazil.

Effectively responding to drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) requires accurate and timely information on resistance levels and trends. In contexts where use of drug susceptibility testing has not been universal (i.e.

The 1,7-malaria reactive community-based testing and response (1,7-mRCTR) approach in Tanzania: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Background: Reactive case detection (RACD) for malaria control has been found effective in low transmission settings, but its impact and cost-effectiveness in moderate-to-high transmission settings are unknown. We conducted an economic evaluation alongside an empirical trial of a modified RACD strategy (1,7-mRCTR) in three moderate-to-high malaria transmission districts in Tanzania.

Methods: The costs and cost savings associated with the intervention relative to passive case detection alone were estimated in the study sites of Kilwa, Kibiti, and Rufiji districts in Tanzania from 2019-2021.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB outcomes in the United States: a Bayesian analysis.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) cases and deaths in the United States fluctuated substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed multiple data sources to understand the factors contributing to these changes and estimated future TB trends.

Methods: We identified four mechanisms potentially contributing to observed TB trends during 2020-2023: immigration, respiratory contact rates, rates of accurate diagnosis and treatment initiation, and mortality rates for persons with TB disease.

High mortality rates among individuals misdiagnosed with tuberculosis: a matched retrospective cohort study of individuals diagnosed with tuberculosis in Brazil.

We conducted a matched retrospective cohort study comparing mortality among individuals receiving a false-positive tuberculosis diagnosis (n=3701) to individuals correctly diagnosed with TB (n=8595) in Brazil from 2007-2016. Over an average 5.4-year follow-up period, we estimated a mortality rate ratio of 1.

Estimated Health and Economic Outcomes of Racial and Ethnic Tuberculosis Disparities in US-Born Persons.

Importance: Despite significant progress made toward tuberculosis (TB) elimination, racial and ethnic disparities persist in TB incidence and case-fatality rates in the US.

Objective: To estimate the health outcomes and economic cost of TB disparities among US-born persons from 2023 to 2035.

Design, Setting, And Participants: Generalized additive regression models projecting trends in TB incidence and case-fatality rates from 2023 to 2035 were fit based on national TB surveillance data for 2010 to 2019 in the 50 US states and the District of Columbia among US-born persons.

Implications of progressive lung damage and post-TB sequelae for the health benefits of prompt TB diagnosis in high HIV prevalence settings: a mathematical modeling analysis.

Background: Untreated pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) causes ongoing lung damage, which may persist after treatment. Conventional approaches for assessing TB health effects may not fully capture these mechanisms. We evaluated how TB-associated lung damage and post-TB sequalae affect the lifetime health consequences of TB in high HIV prevalence settings.

Projected health and economic effects of a pan-tuberculosis treatment regimen: a modelling study.

Background: A pan-tuberculosis regimen that could be initiated without knowledge of drug susceptibility has been proposed as an objective of tuberculosis regimen development. We modelled the health and economic benefits of such a regimen and analysed which of its features contribute most to impact and savings.

Methods: We constructed a mathematical model of tuberculosis treatment parameterised with data from the published literature specific to three countries with a high tuberculosis burden (India, the Philippines, and South Africa).

Cost-effectiveness and health impact of screening and treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among formerly incarcerated individuals in Brazil: a Markov modelling study.

Background: Individuals who were formerly incarcerated have high tuberculosis incidence, but are generally not considered among the risk groups eligible for tuberculosis prevention. We investigated the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection screening and tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for individuals who were formerly incarcerated in Brazil.

Methods: Using published evidence for Brazil, we constructed a Markov state transition model estimating tuberculosis-related health outcomes and costs among individuals who were formerly incarcerated, by simulating transitions between health states over time.

Improving the contribution of mathematical modelling evidence to guidelines and policy: Experiences from tuberculosis.

We read with great interest the recent paper by Lo et al., who argue that there is an urgent need to ensure the quality of modelling evidence used to support international and national guideline development. Here we outline efforts by the Tuberculosis Modelling and Analysis Consortium, together with the World Health Organization Global Task Force on Tuberculosis Impact Measurement, to develop material to improve the quality and transparency of country-level tuberculosis modelling to inform decision-making.

The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: For settings with low tuberculosis incidence, disease elimination is a long-term goal. We investigated pathways to tuberculosis pre-elimination (incidence <1·0 cases per 100 000 people) and elimination (incidence <0·1 cases per 100 000 people) in the USA, where incidence was estimated at 2·9 per 100 000 people in 2023.

Methods: Using a mathematical modelling framework, we simulated how US tuberculosis incidence could be affected by changes in tuberculosis services in the countries of origin for future migrants to the USA, as well as changes in tuberculosis services inside the USA.

Risk factors underlying racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes, 2011-19: a multiple mediation analysis of national surveillance data.

Background: Despite an overall decline in tuberculosis incidence and mortality in the USA in the past two decades, racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis outcomes persist. We aimed to examine the extent to which inequalities in health and neighbourhood-level social vulnerability mediate these disparities.

Methods: We extracted data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System on individuals with tuberculosis during 2011-19.

Potential of Pan-Tuberculosis Treatment to Drive Emergence of Novel Resistance.

New tuberculosis (TB) drugs with little existing antimicrobial resistance enable a pan-TB treatment regimen, intended for universal use without prior drug-susceptibility testing. However, widespread use of such a regimen could contribute to an increasing prevalence of antimicrobial resistance, potentially rendering the pan-TB regimen ineffective or driving clinically problematic patterns of resistance. We developed a model of multiple sequential TB patient cohorts to compare treatment outcomes between continued use of current standards of care (guided by rifampin-susceptibility testing) and a hypothetical pan-TB approach.

Uncertainty in tuberculosis clinical decision-making: An umbrella review with systematic methods and thematic analysis.

Tuberculosis is a major infectious disease worldwide, but currently available diagnostics have suboptimal accuracy, particularly in patients unable to expectorate, and are often unavailable at the point-of-care in resource-limited settings. Test/treatment decision are, therefore, often made on clinical grounds. We hypothesized that contextual factors beyond disease probability may influence clinical decisions about when to test and when to treat for tuberculosis.

Modelling the potential impact of global hepatitis B vaccination on the burden of chronic hepatitis B in the United States.

About 80% of persons with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the United States are non-US-born. Despite improvements in infant hepatitis B vaccination globally since 2000, work remains to attain the World Health Organization's (WHO) global 2030 goal of 90% vaccination. We explore the impacts on the United States of global progress in hepatitis B vaccination since 2000 and of achieving WHO hepatitis B vaccination goals.

Combining genomic data and infection estimates to characterize the complex dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the US.

Omicron surged as a variant of concern in late 2021. Several distinct Omicron variants appeared and overtook each other. We combined variant frequencies and infection estimates from a nowcasting model for each US state to estimate variant-specific infections, attack rates, and effective reproduction numbers (R).

Predictors of unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Brazil: an analysis of 259,484 patient records.

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) causes over 1 million deaths annually. Providing effective treatment is a key strategy for reducing TB deaths. In this study, we identified factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcomes among individuals treated for TB in Brazil.

Associations Between Alcohol Use, Antiretroviral Therapy Use, and Viral Load Suppression Among People Living with HIV in Rural Central Uganda.

Alcohol use among people living with HIV (PWH) is common and may negatively affect engagement in HIV care. We evaluated the relationships between alcohol use, ART use, and viral suppression among PWH in Uganda. PATH/Ekkubo was a trial evaluating a linkage to HIV care intervention in four Ugandan districts, Nov 2015-Sept 2021.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of the 6-month BPaLM regimen for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in Moldova: A mathematical modeling analysis.

Background: Emerging evidence suggests that shortened, simplified treatment regimens for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) can achieve comparable end-of-treatment (EOT) outcomes to longer regimens. We compared a 6-month regimen containing bedaquiline, pretomanid, linezolid, and moxifloxacin (BPaLM) to a standard of care strategy using a 9- or 18-month regimen depending on whether fluoroquinolone resistance (FQ-R) was detected on drug susceptibility testing (DST).

Methods And Findings: The primary objective was to determine whether 6 months of BPaLM is a cost-effective treatment strategy for RR-TB.

The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments Concept-Current Opportunities and Recommendations.

For vaccine development and adoption decisions, the 'Full Value of Vaccine Assessment' (FVVA) framework has been proposed by the WHO to expand the range of evidence available to support the prioritization of candidate vaccines for investment and eventual uptake by low- and middle-income countries. Recent applications of the FVVA framework have already shown benefits. Building on the success of these applications, we see important new opportunities to maximize the future utility of FVVAs to country and global stakeholders and provide a proof-of-concept for analyses in other areas of disease control and prevention.

Factors associated with tuberculosis treatment initiation among bacteriologically negative individuals evaluated for tuberculosis: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Background: Globally, over one-third of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease diagnoses are made based on clinical criteria after a negative diagnostic test result. Understanding factors associated with clinicians' decisions to initiate treatment for individuals with negative test results is critical for predicting the potential impact of new diagnostics.

Methods: We performed a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis using studies conducted between January/2010 and December/2022 (PROSPERO: CRD42022287613).

Health impact and cost-effectiveness of expanding routine immunization coverage in India through Intensified Mission Indradhanush.

Many children do not receive a full schedule of childhood vaccines, yet there is limited evidence on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for improving vaccination coverage. Evidence is even scarcer on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for reaching 'zero-dose children', who have not received any routine vaccines. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of periodic intensification of routine immunization (PIRI), a widely applied strategy for increasing vaccination coverage.

Disparities in Tuberculosis Incidence by Race and Ethnicity Among the U.S.-Born Population in the United States, 2011 to 2021 : An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data.

Background: Elevated tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates have recently been reported for racial/ethnic minority populations in the United States. Tracking such disparities is important for assessing progress toward national health equity goals and implementing change.

Objective: To quantify trends in racial/ethnic disparities in TB incidence among U.

Quantifying gaps in the tuberculosis care cascade in Brazil: A mathematical model study using national program data.

Background: In Brazil, many individuals with tuberculosis (TB) do not receive appropriate care due to delayed or missed diagnosis, ineffective treatment regimens, or loss-to-follow-up. This study aimed to estimate the health losses and TB program costs attributable to each gap in the care cascade for TB disease in Brazil.

Methods And Findings: We constructed a Markov model simulating the TB care cascade and lifetime health outcomes (e.