Correction of Italian under-reporting in the first COVID-19 wave via age-specific deconvolution of hospital admissions.

When the COVID-19 pandemic first emerged in early 2020, healthcare and bureaucratic systems worldwide were caught off guard and largely unprepared to deal with the scale and severity of the outbreak. In Italy, this led to a severe underreporting of infections during the first wave of the spread. The lack of accurate data is critical as it hampers the retrospective assessment of nonpharmacological interventions, the comparison with the following waves, and the estimation and validation of epidemiological models.

Early detection of variants of concern via funnel plots of regional reproduction numbers.

Early detection of the emergence of a new variant of concern (VoC) is essential to develop strategies that contain epidemic outbreaks. For example, knowing in which region a VoC starts spreading enables prompt actions to circumscribe the geographical area where the new variant can spread, by containing it locally. This paper presents 'funnel plots' as a statistical process control method that, unlike tools whose purpose is to identify rises of the reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), detects when a regional [Formula: see text] departs from the national average and thus represents an anomaly.

Modeling vaccination rollouts, SARS-CoV-2 variants and the requirement for non-pharmaceutical interventions in Italy.

Despite progress in clinical care for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), population-wide interventions are still crucial to manage the pandemic, which has been aggravated by the emergence of new, highly transmissible variants. In this study, we combined the SIDARTHE model, which predicts the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a new data-based model that projects new cases onto casualties and healthcare system costs. Based on the Italian case study, we outline several scenarios: mass vaccination campaigns with different paces, different transmission rates due to new variants and different enforced countermeasures, including the alternation of opening and closure phases.

In Vitro-In Vivo Correlation (IVIVC) Population Modeling for the In Silico Bioequivalence of a Long-Acting Release Formulation of Progesterone.

Health authorities carefully evaluate any change in the batch manufacturing process of a drug before and after regulatory approval. In the absence of an adequate in vitro-in vivo correlation (Level A IVIVC), an in vivo bioequivalence (BE) study is frequently required, increasing the cost and time of drug development. This study focused on developing a Level A IVIVC for progesterone vaginal rings (PVRs), a dosage form designed for the continuous delivery in vivo.

Insulin Pulse Characteristics and Insulin Action in Non-diabetic Humans.

Objective: Pulsatile insulin secretion is impaired in diseases such as type 2 diabetes that are characterized by insulin resistance. This has led to the suggestion that changes in insulin pulsatility directly impair insulin signaling. We sought to examine the effects of pulse characteristics on insulin action in humans, hypothesizing that a decrease in pulse amplitude or frequency is associated with impaired hepatic insulin action.

On the agreement between bibliometrics and peer review: Evidence from the Italian research assessment exercises.

This paper analyzes the concordance between bibliometrics and peer review. It draws evidence from the data of two experiments of the Italian governmental agency for research evaluation. The experiments were performed by the agency for validating the adoption in the Italian research assessment exercises of a dual system of evaluation, where some outputs were evaluated by bibliometrics and others by peer review.

Diabetes-associated genetic variation in TCF7L2 alters pulsatile insulin secretion in humans.

BACKGROUNDMetabolic disorders such as type 2 diabetes have been associated with a decrease in insulin pulse frequency and amplitude. We hypothesized that the T allele at rs7903146 in TCF7L2, previously associated with β cell dysfunction, would be associated with changes in these insulin pulse characteristics.METHODSTwenty-nine nondiabetic subjects (age 46 ± 2, BMI 28 ± 1 kg/m2) participated in this study.

Nursing Care of Patients With Cirrhosis: The LiverHope Nursing Project.

Cirrhosis is a complex disease that is associated with disturbances in different organs besides the liver, including kidneys, heart, arterial circulation, lungs, gut, and brain. As a consequence, patients develop a number of complications that result in frequent hospital admissions and high morbidity and mortality. Patients with cirrhosis require constant and rigorous monitoring both in and outside the hospital.

Citation gaming induced by bibliometric evaluation: A country-level comparative analysis.

It is several years since national research evaluation systems around the globe started making use of quantitative indicators to measure the performance of researchers. Nevertheless, the effects on these systems on the behavior of the evaluated researchers are still largely unknown. For investigating this topic, we propose a new inwardness indicator able to gauge the degree of scientific self-referentiality of a country.

Systemic Exposure of Rituximab Increased by Ibrutinib: Pharmacokinetic Results and Modeling Based on the HELIOS Trial.

Introduction: In the HELIOS trial, bendamustine/rituximab (BR) plus ibrutinib (BR-I) improved disease outcomes versus BR plus placebo in previously treated chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma. Here, we describe the pharmacokinetic (PK) observations, along with modeling to further explore the interaction between ibrutinib and rituximab.

Methods: 578 subjects were randomized to ibrutinib or placebo with BR (6 cycles).

Assessment of pulsatile insulin secretion derived from peripheral plasma C-peptide concentrations by nonparametric stochastic deconvolution.

The characteristics of pulsatile insulin secretion are important determinants of type 2 diabetes pathophysiology, but they are understudied due to the difficulties in measuring pulsatile insulin secretion noninvasively. Deconvolution of either peripheral C-peptide or insulin concentrations offers an appealing alternative to hepatic vein catheterization. However, to do so, there are a series of methodological challenges to overcome.

MPBPK-TMDD models for mAbs: alternative models, comparison, and identifiability issues.

The aim of the present study was to evaluate model identifiability when minimal physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (mPBPK) models are integrated with target mediated drug disposition (TMDD) models in the tissue compartment. Three quasi-steady-state (QSS) approximations of TMDD dynamics were explored: on (a) antibody-target complex, (b) free target, and (c) free antibody concentrations in tissue. The effects of the QSS approximations were assessed via simulations, taking as reference the mPBPK-TMDD model with no simplifications.

Mathematical modeling of efficacy and safety for anticancer drugs clinical development.

Drug attrition in oncology clinical development is higher than in other therapeutic areas. In this context, pharmacometric modeling represents a useful tool to explore drug efficacy in earlier phases of clinical development, anticipating overall survival using quantitative model-based metrics. Furthermore, modeling approaches can be used to characterize earlier the safety and tolerability profile of drug candidates, and, thus, the risk-benefit ratio and the therapeutic index, supporting the design of optimal treatment regimens and accelerating the whole process of clinical drug development.

Current mathematical models for cancer drug discovery.

Pharmacometric models represent the most comprehensive approaches for extracting, summarizing and integrating information obtained in the often sparse, limited, and less-than-optimally designed experiments performed in the early phases of oncology drug discovery. Whilst empirical methodologies may be enough for screening and ranking candidate drugs, modeling approaches are needed for optimizing and making economically viable the learn-confirm cycles within an oncology research program and anticipating the dose regimens to be investigated in the subsequent clinical development. Areas covered: Papers appearing in the literature of approximately the last decade reporting modeling approaches applicable to anticancer drug discovery have been listed and commented.

Model individualization for artificial pancreas.

Background And Objective: The inter-subject variability characterizing the patients affected by type 1 diabetes mellitus makes automatic blood glucose control very challenging. Different patients have different insulin responses, and a control law based on a non-individualized model could be ineffective. The definition of an individualized control law in the context of artificial pancreas is currently an open research topic.

Temporal pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic interaction between human CD3ε antigen-targeted monoclonal antibody otelixizumab and CD3ε binding and expression in human peripheral blood mononuclear cell static culture.

Otelixizumab is a monoclonal antibody (mAb) directed to human CD3ε, a protein forming part of the CD3/T-cell receptor (TCR) complex on T lymphocytes. This study investigated the temporal interaction between varying concentrations of otelixizumab, binding to human CD3 antigen, and expression of CD3/TCR complexes on lymphocytes in vitro, free from the confounding influence of changing lymphocyte frequencies observed in vivo. A static in vitro culture system was established in which primary human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were incubated over an extended time course with titrated concentrations of otelixizumab.

Biomarker- versus drug-driven tumor growth inhibition models: an equivalence analysis.

The mathematical modeling of tumor xenograft experiments following the dosing of antitumor drugs has received much attention in the last decade. Biomarker data can further provide useful insights on the pathological processes and be used for translational purposes in the early clinical development. Therefore, it is of particular interest the development of integrated pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) models encompassing drug, biomarker and tumor-size data.

Population modelling of patient responses in antidepressant studies: a stochastic approach.

This paper addresses the problem of modelling longitudinal data describing patients' responses in clinical trials. In particular, a systematic approach relying on a system theoretic paradigm is proposed to deal with contexts where limited physiopathological knowledge is available on disease, drug response, and patients' characteristics. The model relies on the notion of patient's health state which summarizes the patient's condition.

Population pharmacokinetic model of ibrutinib, a Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor, in patients with B cell malignancies.

Purpose: Ibrutinib is an oral Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitor, recently approved for the treatment of mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients with at least one prior therapy. We developed a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model for ibrutinib in patients.

Methods: Ibrutinib PK data (3,477 observations/245 patients) were available from the following clinical studies: (1) A phase I dose-escalation study in recurrent B cell malignancies (dose levels of 1.

Continuous-time Markov modelling of flexible-dose depression trials.

The aim of this paper is to provide a systematic methodology for modelling longitudinal data to be used in contexts of limited or even absent knowledge of the physiological mechanism underlying the disease time course. Adopting a system-theoretic paradigm, a population response model is developed where the clinical endpoint is described as a function of the patient's health state. In particular, a continuous-time stochastic approach is proposed where the clinical score and its time-derivative summarize the patient's health state affected by a random term accounting for exogenous unpredictable factors.

Population model of longitudinal FEV1 data in asthmatics: meta-analysis and predictability of placebo response.

Asthma is an obstructive lung disease where the mechanism of disease progression is not fully understood hence motivating the use of empirical models to describe the evolution of the patient's health state. With reference to placebo response, measured in terms of FEV1 (Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 s), a range of empirical models taken from the literature were compared at a single trial level. In particular, eleven GSK trials lasting 12 weeks in mild-to-moderate asthma were used for the modelling of longitudinal placebo responses.

Multicenter closed-loop insulin delivery study points to challenges for keeping blood glucose in a safe range by a control algorithm in adults and adolescents with type 1 diabetes from various sites.

Background: The Control to Range Study was a multinational artificial pancreas study designed to assess the time spent in the hypo- and hyperglycemic ranges in adults and adolescents with type 1 diabetes while under closed-loop control. The controller attempted to keep the glucose ranges between 70 and 180 mg/dL. A set of prespecified metrics was used to measure safety.