Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems.

Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps.

Policy and behavioral response to shock events: An agent-based model of the effectiveness and equity of policy design features.

In the aftermath of shock events, policy responses tend to be crafted under significant time constraints and high levels of uncertainty. The extent to which individuals comply with different policy designs can further influence how effective the policy responses are and how equitably their impacts are distributed in the population. Tools which allow policymakers to model different crisis trajectories, policy responses, and behavioral scenarios ex ante can provide crucial timely support in the decision-making process.