The adaptive potential of plant populations in response to extreme climate events.

The frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events are increasing with global change, yet we lack predictions and empirical evidence for the ability of wild populations to persist and adapt in response to these events. Here, we used Fisher's Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection to evaluate the adaptive potential of Lasthenia fremontii, a herbaceous winter annual that is endemic to seasonally flooded wetlands in California, to alternative flooding regimes that occur during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The results indicate that populations may exhibit greater adaptive potential in response to dry years than wet years, and that the relative performance of populations will change across climate scenarios.