Ecological and environmental factors affecting the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Europe, 2017 to 2021.

BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a disease which can lead to severe neurological symptoms, caused by the TBE virus (TBEV). The natural transmission cycle occurs in foci and involves ticks as vectors and several key hosts that act as reservoirs and amplifiers of the infection spread. Recently, the incidence of TBE in Europe has been rising in both endemic and new regions.

Invasive potential of tropical fruit flies in temperate regions under climate change.

Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.

Warming trends of perialpine lakes from homogenised time series of historical satellite and in-situ data.

The availability of more than thirty years of historical satellite data is a valuable source which could be used as an alternative to the sparse in-situ data. We developed a new homogenised time series of daily day time Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) over the last thirty years (1986-2015) at a spatial resolution of 1km from thirteen polar orbiting satellites. The new homogenisation procedure implemented in this study corrects for the different acquisition times of the satellites standardizing the derived LSWT to 12:00 UTC.

Homogenised daily lake surface water temperature data generated from multiple satellite sensors: A long-term case study of a large sub-Alpine lake.

Availability of remotely sensed multi-spectral images since the 1980's, which cover three decades of voluminous data could help researchers to study the changing dynamics of bio-physical characteristics of land and water. In this study, we introduce a new methodology to develop homogenised Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) from multiple polar orbiting satellites. Precisely, we developed homogenised 1 km daily LSWT maps covering the last 30 years (1986 to 2015) combining data from 13 satellites.

Spatial and Temporal Hot Spots of Aedes albopictus Abundance inside and outside a South European Metropolitan Area.

Aedes albopictus is a tropical invasive species which in the last decades spread worldwide, also colonizing temperate regions of Europe and US, where it has become a public health concern due to its ability to transmit exotic arboviruses, as well as severe nuisance problems due to its aggressive daytime outdoor biting behaviour. While several studies have been carried out in order to predict the potential limits of the species expansions based on eco-climatic parameters, few studies have so far focused on the specific effects of these variables in shaping its micro-geographic abundance and dynamics. The present study investigated eco-climatic factors affecting Ae.

First assessment of potential distribution and dispersal capacity of the emerging invasive mosquito Aedes koreicus in Northeast Italy.

Background: Invasive alien species represent a growing threat for natural systems, economy and human health. Active surveillance and responses that readily suppress newly established colonies are effective actions to mitigate the noxious consequences of biological invasions. However, when an exotic species establishes a viable population in a new area, predicting its potential spread is the most effective way to implement adequate control actions.

Demographic History, Population Structure, and Local Adaptation in Alpine Populations of Cardamine impatiens and Cardamine resedifolia.

Species evolution depends on numerous and distinct forces, including demography and natural selection. For example, local adaptation and population structure affect the evolutionary history of species living along environmental clines. This is particularly relevant in plants, which are often characterized by limited dispersal ability and the need to respond to abiotic and biotic stress factors specific to the local environment.

Identifying the environmental conditions favouring West Nile Virus outbreaks in Europe.

West Nile Virus (WNV) is a globally important mosquito borne virus, with significant implications for human and animal health. The emergence and spread of new lineages, and increased pathogenicity, is the cause of escalating public health concern. Pinpointing the environmental conditions that favour WNV circulation and transmission to humans is challenging, due both to the complexity of its biological cycle, and the under-diagnosis and reporting of epidemiological data.

Climatic and geographical dependence of the H, C and O stable isotope ratios of Italian wine.

In this study, we investigated the relationship between (D/H)1, (D/H)2 and δ(13)C of ethanol and δ(18)O of water in wine, and variables describing the climate and the geography of the production area, using exploratory visualisation tools, regression analysis and linear modelling. For the first time, a large amount of data (around 4000 wine samples collected over 11 years in Italy) and all the official isotopic parameters, as well as a large number of significant climatic and geographical descriptors (date of harvest, latitude, longitude, elevation, distance from the sea, amount of precipitation, maximum daily temperature, minimum daily temperature, mean daily temperature, δ(18)O and δ(2)H of precipitation) were considered. δ(18)O, followed by (D/H)1, was shown to have the strongest relationship with climate and location.

Early warning of West Nile virus mosquito vector: climate and land use models successfully explain phenology and abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes in north-western Italy.

Background: West Nile Virus (WNV) is an emerging global health threat. Transmission risk is strongly related to the abundance of mosquito vectors, typically Culex pipiens in Europe. Early-warning predictors of mosquito population dynamics would therefore help guide entomological surveillance and thereby facilitate early warnings of transmission risk.

Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches.

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest.

Estimating hantavirus risk in southern Argentina: a GIS-based approach combining human cases and host distribution.

We use a Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) approach along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques to examine the potential distribution of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) caused by Andes virus (ANDV) in southern Argentina and, more precisely, define and estimate the area with the highest infection probability for humans, through the combination with the distribution map for the competent rodent host (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus). Sites with confirmed cases of HPS in the period 1995-2009 were mostly concentrated in a narrow strip (~90 km × 900 km) along the Andes range from northern Neuquén to central Chubut province. This area is characterized by high mean annual precipitation (~1,000 mm on average), but dry summers (less than 100 mm), very low percentages of bare soil (~10% on average) and low temperatures in the coldest month (minimum average temperature -1.

Is Switzerland suitable for the invasion of Aedes albopictus [corrected]?

Background: Over the last 30 years, the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has rapidly spread around the world. The European distribution comprises the Mediterranean basin with a first appearance in Switzerland in 2003. Early identification of the most suitable areas in Switzerland allowing progressive invasion by this species is considered crucial to suggest adequate surveillance and control plans.

Terra and Aqua satellites track tiger mosquito invasion: modelling the potential distribution of Aedes albopictus in north-eastern Italy.

Background: The continuing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in Europe is of increasing public health concern due to the potential risk of new outbreaks of exotic vector-borne diseases that this species can transmit as competent vector. We predicted the most favorable areas for a short term invasion of Ae. albopictus in north-eastern Italy using reconstructed daily satellite data time series (MODIS Land Surface Temperature maps, LST).

Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy.

Background: The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies.

Wildlife tracking data management: a new vision.

To date, the processing of wildlife location data has relied on a diversity of software and file formats. Data management and the following spatial and statistical analyses were undertaken in multiple steps, involving many time-consuming importing/exporting phases. Recent technological advancements in tracking systems have made large, continuous, high-frequency datasets of wildlife behavioural data available, such as those derived from the global positioning system (GPS) and other animal-attached sensor devices.

Spectral variation versus species beta-diversity at different spatial scales: a test in African highland savannas.

Few studies exist that explicitly analyse the effect of grain, i.e. the sampling unit dimension, on vascular plant species turnover (beta-diversity) among sites.

Forest structure and roe deer abundance predict tick-borne encephalitis risk in Italy.

Background: The Western Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus often causes devastating or lethal disease. In Europe, the number of human TBE cases has increased dramatically over the last decade, risk areas are expanding and new foci are being discovered every year. The early localisation of new TBE foci and the identification of the main risk factors associated with disease emergence represent a priority for the public health community.

Early detection of tick-borne encephalitis virus spatial distribution and activity in the province of Trento, northern Italy.

New human cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) have recently been recorded outside the recognised foci of this disease, i.e. in the province of Trento in northern Italy.

Tick infestation on roe deer in relation to geographic and remotely sensed climatic variables in a tick-borne encephalitis endemic area.

Roe deer Capreolus capreolus are among the most important feeding hosts for the sheep tick Ixodes ricinus, thus contributing to the occurrence of tick-borne diseases in Europe. Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), which is transmitted by co-feeding of larvae and nymphs on rodents, requires precise climatic conditions to occur. We used roe deer as sentinels for potential circulation of TBE virus in Northern Italy, by examining the association between tick infestation, occurrence of TBE human cases, geographical and climatic parameters.

[Ixodes ricinus, transmitted diseases and reservoirs].

The tick Ixodes ricinus has been recorded in most Italian regions especially in thermo-mesophilous woods and shrubby habitats where the relative humidity allow the tick to complete its 3 year developmental cycle, as predicted for the European climatic ranges. This tick acts both as vector and reservoir for a series of wildlife zoonotic pathogens, especially the agents of Lyme diseases, Tick borne encephalitis and Human Granulocytic Ehrlichiosis, which are emerging in most of Europe. To assess the spatial distribution of these pathogens and the infection risk for humans and animals within the territory of the Province of Trento, we carried out a long term study using a combination of eco-epidemiological surveys and mathematical modelling.