Publications by authors named "Nellie Elguindi"

The CO Human Emissions project has generated realistic high-resolution 9 km global simulations for atmospheric carbon tracers referred to as nature runs to foster carbon-cycle research applications with current and planned satellite missions, as well as the surge of in situ observations. Realistic atmospheric CO, CH and CO fields can provide a reference for assessing the impact of proposed designs of new satellites and in situ networks and to study atmospheric variability of the tracers modulated by the weather. The simulations spanning 2015 are based on the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service forecasts at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, with improvements in various model components and input data such as anthropogenic emissions, in preparation of a CO Monitoring and Verification Support system.

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Ozone (O) is a key oxidant and pollutant in the lower atmosphere. Significant increases in surface O have been reported in many cities during the COVID-19 lockdown. Here we conduct comprehensive observation and modeling analyses of surface O across China for periods before and during the lockdown.

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We use the global Community Earth System Model to investigate the response of secondary pollutants (ozone O, secondary organic aerosols SOA) in different parts of the world in response to modified emissions of primary pollutants during the COVID-19 pandemic. We quantify the respective effects of the reductions in NOx and in volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions, which, in most cases, affect oxidants in opposite ways. Using model simulations, we show that the level of NOx has been reduced by typically 40% in China during February 2020 and by similar amounts in many areas of Europe and North America in mid-March to mid-April 2020, in good agreement with space and surface observations.

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Article Synopsis
  • Global coupled chemistry-climate models tend to underestimate carbon monoxide (CO) levels in the Northern Hemisphere, especially peaking in late winter and early spring, which is linked to factors beyond just emissions from human activity and biomass burning.
  • A study using data from the KORUS-AQ experiment revealed that CO was underestimated by 42% in a control scenario, while using satellite data assimilation reduced this bias significantly.
  • Adjusting CO emissions in models not only improved CO accuracy but also positively impacted related compounds such as ozone and hydroxyl (OH), indicating that better accounting for anthropogenic sources enhances overall air quality modeling.
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