Effectiveness of social distancing interventions in containing COVID-19 incidence: International evidence using Kalman filter.

The epidemiological literature has widely documented the importance of social distancing interventions in containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the epidemiological measure of virus reproduction, R, provides a myopic view of containment, especially when the absolute number of cases is still high. The paper investigates cross-country variations concerning the impact of social distancing interventions on COVID-19 incidence by employing a statistical measure of containment, which models the daily number of cases as a structural time-series, state-space vector.