Resisting-Accepting-Directing: Ecosystem Management Guided by an Ecological Resilience Assessment.

As anthropogenic influences push ecosystems past tipping points and into new regimes, complex management decisions are complicated by rapid ecosystem changes that may be difficult to reverse. For managers who grapple with how to manage ecosystems under novel conditions and heightened uncertainty, advancing our understanding of regime shifts is paramount. As part of an ecological resilience assessment, researchers and managers have collaborated to identify alternate regimes and build an understanding of the thresholds and factors that govern regime shifts in the Upper Mississippi River System.

Conceptualizing alternate regimes in a large floodplain-river ecosystem: Water clarity, invasive fish, and floodplain vegetation.

Regime shifts - persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem - are well-documented for some ecosystems and have informed research and management of these ecosystems. In floodplain-river ecosystems, there is growing interest from restoration practitioners in ecological resilience, yet regime shifts remain poorly understood in these ecosystems. To understand how regime shifts may apply to floodplain-river ecosystems, we synthesize our understanding of ecosystem dynamics using an alternate regimes conceptual framework.

Modelling moose-forest interactions under different predation scenarios at Isle Royale National Park, USA.

Loss of top predators may contribute to high ungulate population densities and chronic over-browsing of forest ecosystems. However, spatial and temporal variability in the strength of interactions between predators and ungulates occurs over scales that are much shorter than the scales over which forest communities change, making it difficult to characterize trophic cascades in forest ecosystems. We applied the LANDIS-II forest succession model and a recently developed ungulate browsing extension to model how the moose population could interact with the forest ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park, USA, under three different wolf predation scenarios.

Changes in aquatic vegetation and floodplain land cover in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers (1989-2000-2010).

Quantifying changes in the cover of river-floodplain systems can provide important insights into the processes that structure these landscapes as well as the potential consequences to the ecosystem services they provide. We examined net changes in 13 different aquatic and floodplain land cover classes using photo interpreted maps of the navigable portions of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR, above the confluence with the Ohio River) and Illinois River from 1989 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010. We detected net decreases in vegetated aquatic area in nearly all river reaches from 1989 to 2000.

Effects of flood frequency and duration on the allometry of community-level stem size-density distributions in a floodplain forest.

Premise Of The Study: Consistent with the self-thinning law of plant population ecology, Niklas et al. in 2003 proposed that stem size-density distributions (SDDs) of multispecies forest communities should change in very predictable ways as a function of the effects of past disturbances on average tree size. To date, empirical tests of this hypothesis have not been pursued in floodplain settings.