The long-lasting effect of armed conflicts deaths on the living: Quantifying family bereavement.

Armed conflicts escalate combatant and civilian mortality and produce considerable levels of family bereavement. Yet, we know little about the prevalence of bereavement in conflict-affected populations. The violent loss of kin affects individuals across several dimensions, including trauma, mental health, socioeconomic status, and caregiving, especially during childhood and old age.

Developmental Idealism and Migration: Theorizing their Relationship and an Empirical Example from Nepal.

This paper brings together both theoretically and empirically two strands of social science research: migration and developmental idealism. The paper is motivated by the fact that there are extensive bodies of research about migration and about developmental idealism, but almost no discussion in the literature about how they might be interconnected. We present theoretical arguments concerning the influence of migration in distributing developmental idealism around the world and in developmental idealism being a force influencing the migration decisions of people.

When does Social Capital Matter for Migration? A Study of Networks, Brokers, and Migrants in Nepal.

The study of social capital has been one of the strongest areas of recent advance in migration research, but there are still many questions about how it works and why it has varying effects in studies of different places. In this article, we address the contextual variation in social capital's effects on migration by considering migration brokers. We argue that destinations for which migration is logistically difficult to arrange give rise to brokerage industries and hypothesize that brokers in turn substitute for the informational capital typically provided by social networks.

Husbands' Migration: Increased Burden on or More Autonomy for Wives Left Behind?

Migration of men has important influences on reshaping family and gender roles in left-behind wives. However, it is unclear whether husbands' out-migration increases the burden on or creates autonomy for left-behind wives. Using new data from Nepal, we examine the associations of husband's out-migration and remittance status with the work burden and autonomy of left-behind wives'.

Family Obligation Attitudes, Gender, and Migration.

This study focuses on attitudes related to fulfilling family obligations and their relationships to migration behavior. We hypothesize that men who highly value fulfilling family obligations will be more likely to migrate in order to fulfill material obligations while women who highly value fulfilling family obligations will be less likely to migrate in order to fulfill care obligations. The empirical analysis examines data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study, located in south-central Nepal.

Fatalistic Beliefs and Migration Behaviors: A Study of Ideational Demography in Nepal.

We investigate influences of fatalistic beliefs on domestic and international migration in Nepal, positing that fatalistic beliefs may affect decisions to migrate and where to locate. Fatalism is the belief that human outcomes are preordained by forces outside of one's power and control. Because of its relationship with effort and innovation, fatalism may be an important factor in people's decision to migrate and destination choice.

Climate Change and Migration: New Insights from a Dynamic Model of Out-Migration and Return Migration.

In popular accounts, stories of environmental refugees convey a bleak picture of the impacts of climate change on migration. Scholarly research is less conclusive, with studies finding varying effects. This paper uses an agent-based model (ABM) of land use, social networks, and household dynamics to examine how extreme floods and droughts affect migration in Northeast Thailand.

Spatial and Temporal Dimensions of Weather Shocks and Migration in Nepal.

Research shows that environmental shocks can influence migration. However, studies vary widely in the shocks and type of migration measured, the context, and the strength and direction of environmental effects. In addition, existing theories provide opposing predictions for this relationship.

Ethno-Caste Influences on Migration Rates and Destinations.

While studies commonly show differences in out-migration between ethnic groups, ethnicity most often features no more than a side note in the emigration literature, and we have very little insight about why people from different ethnic groups migrate at different rates. Understanding ethnic differences in migration rates and destination choice has important implications for the present-day and future potential for either dampening or exacerbating ethnic discrimination and opportunity structures. Building on existing migration theory, we identify three possible mechanisms through which ethnicity might influence out-migration rates and destination choice: human and economic capital, contemporary discrimination, and historical legacies that are perpetuated through social networks.

Strategies for origin-based surveying of international migrants.

This paper addresses methodological challenges of investigations of international migration, including difficulties in obtaining information about representative samples of migrants and both their origin and destination location. Our project used an origin-based sample with a destination focused survey and interviewed 91% of migrants from a community in Nepal to any destination and shares techniques employed. Our procedures and high response rate constitute a significant improvement in survey methods that permit the creation of unbiased data on migrants and allow the study of migration in conjunction with origin communities.

Influences of Material Aspirations on Migration.

In this article, we investigate the influences of material aspirations on migration in Nepal, positing that material aspirations may have important influences on decisions to migrate and where to locate. We discuss a theoretical model explaining how these aspirations might be key influences in the migration decision. Using detailed continuous migration histories from the 2008-2012 Chitwan Valley Family Study, we estimate logistic and alternative-specific conditional logit models to examine how material aspirations in Nepal influence migration rates and destinations.

Fear of violence during armed conflict: Social roles and responsibilities as determinants of fear.

This article investigates the prevalence and determinants of fear as a consequence of living through armed conflict. We use survey data from Nepal during the armed conflict (1996-2006) to examine how trauma, sex and gender, age, marriage, and household size affect fear of violence. We also disaggregate types of worry, and find substantial variance on whether respondents were more concerned about livelihood consequences of conflict than physical danger.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand.

Mixed and Complex Mixed Migration during Armed Conflict: Multidimensional Empirical Evidence from Nepal.

Historically, legal, policy, and academic communities largely ascribed to a dichotomy between forced and voluntary migration, creating a black and white vision that was convenient for legal and policy purposes. More recently, discussions have begun addressing the possibility of mixed migration, acknowledging that there is likely a wide continuum between forced and voluntary, and most migrants likely move with some amount of compulsion and some volition, even during armed conflict. While the mixed migration hypothesis is well-received, empirical evidence is disparate and somewhat blunt at this point.

Measures of Human Mobility Using Mobile Phone Records Enhanced with GIS Data.

In the past decade, large scale mobile phone data have become available for the study of human movement patterns. These data hold an immense promise for understanding human behavior on a vast scale, and with a precision and accuracy never before possible with censuses, surveys or other existing data collection techniques. There is already a significant body of literature that has made key inroads into understanding human mobility using this exciting new data source, and there have been several different measures of mobility used.

Spatiotemporal detection of unusual human population behavior using mobile phone data.

With the aim to contribute to humanitarian response to disasters and violent events, scientists have proposed the development of analytical tools that could identify emergency events in real-time, using mobile phone data. The assumption is that dramatic and discrete changes in behavior, measured with mobile phone data, will indicate extreme events. In this study, we propose an efficient system for spatiotemporal detection of behavioral anomalies from mobile phone data and compare sites with behavioral anomalies to an extensive database of emergency and non-emergency events in Rwanda.

Associations between the social organization of communities and psychiatric disorders in rural Asia.

Purpose: We provide rare evidence of factors producing psychiatric variation in a general population sample from rural South Asia. The setting is particularly useful for demonstrating that variations in the social organization of communities, often difficult to observe in rich countries, are associated with important variations in mental health.

Methods: Clinically validated survey measures are used to document variation in psychiatric disorders among 401 adults.

Changing crops in response to climate: virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation.

The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography.

Migrant Values and Beliefs: How Are They Different and How Do They Change?

This is a study of the values of migrants. We examine processes of selection-how values affect migration-and adaptation-how migration influences value changes. Empirical analyses use a unique collection of data that combines detailed information on values from a representative sample of non-migrants in Nepal with a representative sample of Nepali migrants living in the Persian Gulf.

Gender, traumatic events, and mental health disorders in a rural Asian setting.

Research shows a strong association between traumatic life experience and mental health and important gender differences in that relationship in the western European Diaspora; but much less is known about these relationships in other settings. We investigate these relationships in a poor rural Asian setting that recently experienced a decade-long armed conflict. We use data from 400 adult interviews in rural Nepal.

Design of an Agent-Based Model to Examine Population-Environment Interactions in Nang Rong District, Thailand.

The design of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is described that integrates Social and Land Use Modules to examine population-environment interactions in a former agricultural frontier in Northeastern Thailand. The ABM is used to assess household income and wealth derived from agricultural production of lowland, rain-fed paddy rice and upland field crops in Nang Rong District as well as remittances returned to the household from family migrants who are engaged in off-farm employment in urban destinations. The ABM is supported by a longitudinal social survey of nearly 10,000 households, a deep satellite image time-series of land use change trajectories, multi-thematic social and ecological data organized within a GIS, and a suite of software modules that integrate data derived from an agricultural cropping system model (DSSAT - Decision Support for Agrotechnology Transfer) and a land suitability model (MAXENT - Maximum Entropy), in addition to multi-dimensional demographic survey data of individuals and households.

Collecting Survey Data during Armed Conflict.

Surveys provide crucial information about the social consequences of armed conflict, but armed conflict can shape surveys in ways that limit their value. We use longitudinal survey data from throughout the recent armed conflict in Nepal to investigate the relationship between armed conflict events and survey response. The Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) provides a rare window into survey data collection through intense armed conflict.

How community organizations moderate the effect of armed conflict on migration in Nepal.

This study analyses micro-level variability in migration during armed conflict in Nepal. The analysis is based on a multi-dimensional model of individual out-migration that examines the economic, social, and political consequences of conflict and how community organizations condition the experience of these consequences and systematically alter migration patterns. Detailed data on violent events and individual behaviour during the Maoist insurrection in Nepal and multi-level event-history analysis were used to test the model.

A micro-level event-centered approach to investigating armed conflict and population responses.

In this article, we construct and test a micro-level event-centered approach to the study of armed conflict and behavioral responses in the general population. Event-centered approaches have been successfully used in the macro-political study of armed conflict but have not yet been adopted in micro-behavioral studies. The micro-level event-centered approach that we advocate here includes decomposition of a conflict into discrete political and violent events, examination of the mechanisms through which they affect behavior, and consideration of differential risks within the population.

Education, gender, and migration in the context of social change.

Although sociologists have identified education as likely determinant of migration, the ways in which education affects migration are unclear and empirical results are disparate. This paper addresses the relationship between educational attainment, enrolment, and migration, focusing on the role of gender and how it changes with evolving social contexts. Using empirical analyses based in Nepal, results indicate that educational attainment has positive effects and enrolment has negative effects on out-migration and including enrolment in the model increases the effect of attainment.