Publications by authors named "Natasha S Crowcroft"

Measles and rubella have long been recognized as priorities for disease prevention because of their devastating consequences for child health; hence, all World Health Organization (WHO) regions currently have a goal to eliminate measles and four out of six WHO regions have a goal to eliminate rubella. Significant global progress has been made in the twenty-first century, with more than 40% of countries in the world verified by a Regional Verification Commission as having eliminated measles and more than 50% of countries having sustained rubella elimination. Making further progress will require addressing fundamental gaps in health systems, a particular challenge in the current global context where many countries face multiple barriers to both sustaining and achieving measles and rubella elimination.

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Measles vaccination effectively prevents measles, a highly contagious disease that can cause severe complications and death and requires high population immunity to interrupt transmission. This report describes measles elimination progress during 2000-2023. During 2000-2023, an estimated 60.

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The World Health Organization's Immunization and Vaccines-related Implementation Research Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC) serves to independently review and evaluate vaccine-related research to maximize the potential impact of vaccination programs. From 28 June - 1 July 2024, IVIR-AC was convened for an ad hoc meeting to discuss new evidence on criteria for rubella vaccine introduction and the risk of congenital rubella syndrome. This report summarizes background information on rubella virus transmission and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome, meeting structure and presentations, proceedings, and recommendations.

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Measles is a highly infectious disease leading to high morbidity and mortality impacting people's lives and economies across the globe. The measles vaccine saves more lives than any other vaccine in the Essential Programme of Immunization and is also the most cost-effective vaccine, with an extremely high return on investment. This makes achieving measles elimination through vaccination a key child health intervention, particularly in low-income countries, where the overwhelming majority of measles deaths continue to occur.

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Background: Randomized trials conducted in low- and middle-income settings demonstrated efficacy of influenza vaccination during pregnancy against influenza infection among infants <6 months of age. However, vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from settings with different population characteristics and influenza seasonality remain limited.

Methods: We conducted a test-negative study in Ontario, Canada.

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Rubella virus is a leading cause of vaccine-preventable birth defects. Infection during pregnancy can result in miscarriage, fetal death, stillbirth, or a constellation of birth defects, including cataracts, deafness, heart defects, and developmental delay, known as congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). A single dose of rubella-containing vaccine can provide lifelong protection against rubella.

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BackgroundWaning immunity from seasonal influenza vaccination can cause suboptimal protection during peak influenza activity. However, vaccine effectiveness studies assessing waning immunity using vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals are subject to biases.AimWe examined the association between time since vaccination and laboratory-confirmed influenza to assess the change in influenza vaccine protection over time.

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Background: Pertussis is a reportable disease in many countries, but ascertainment bias has limited data accuracy. This study aims to validate pertussis data measures using a reference standard that incorporates different suspected case severities, allowing for the impact of case severity on accuracy and detection to be explored.

Methods: We evaluated 25 pertussis detection algorithms in a primary care electronic medical record database between January 1, 1986 and December 30, 2016.

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An underestimation of pertussis burden has impeded understanding of transmission and disallows effective policy and prevention to be prioritized and enacted. Capture-recapture analyses can improve burden estimates; however, uncertainty remains around incorporating health administrative data due to accuracy limitations. The aim of this study is to explore the impact of pertussis case definitions and data accuracy on capture-recapture estimates.

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Measles is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable disease that requires high population immunity for transmission to be interrupted. All six World Health Organization regions have committed to eliminating measles; however, no region has achieved and sustained measles elimination. This report describes measles elimination progress during 2000-2022.

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Objectives: To investigate maternal antibody levels to varicella in infants <12 months of age in Ontario, Canada.

Study Design: In this study, we included specimens from infants <12 months of age, born at ≥37 weeks gestational age, who had sera collected at The Hospital for Sick Children (Toronto, Canada) between 2014-2016. We tested sera using a glycoprotein-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (gpELISA).

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During 2013, the 11 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region* (SEAR) adopted the goals of measles elimination and rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) control by 2020. During 2019, SEAR countries declared a broader goal for eliminating both measles and rubella by 2023 (1). Before 2013, only five SEAR countries had introduced rubella-containing vaccine (RCV).

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Background: As countries move towards or achieve measles elimination status, serosurveillance is an important public health tool. However, a major challenge of serosurveillance is finding a feasible, accurate, cost-effective, and high throughput assay to measure measles antibody concentrations and estimate susceptibility in a population. We conducted a systematic review to assess, characterize, and - to the extent possible - quantify the performance of measles IgG enzyme-linked assays (EIAs) compared to the gold standard, plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNT).

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Background: Older adults are recommended to receive influenza vaccination annually, and many use statins. Statins have immunomodulatory properties that might modify influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) and alter influenza infection risk.

Methods: Using the test-negative design and linked laboratory and health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, we estimated VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza among community-dwelling statin users and nonusers aged ≥66 years during the 2010-2011 to 2018-2019 influenza seasons.

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Background: There is low uptake of the pneumococcal vaccination in eligible older adults, even in high-income countries that offer routine and universal vaccination programs.

Objective: To systematically characterize interventions aimed at improving pneumococcal vaccine uptake in older adults.

Design: We conducted a scoping review following PRISMA-SCr guidelines of five interdisciplinary databases: Medline-Ovid, Embase, CINAHL, PsychInfo, and Cochrane Library.

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Purpose: Pertussis surveillance remains essential in Canada, but ascertainment bias limits the accuracy of surveillance data. Introducing other sources to improve detection has highlighted the importance of validation. However, challenges arise due to low prevalence, and oversampling suspected cases can introduce partial verification bias.

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Background: Pneumococcal disease causes substantial morbidity and mortality in older adults. Pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) is routinely recommended to reduce the disease burden in this population. However, the vaccination coverage in older adults remains suboptimal in high-income countries.

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Background: There is a paucity of data on the burden of the full spectrum of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and acute otitis media (AOM) from outpatient and inpatient settings across the age spectrum.

Methods: We conducted a population-based retrospective study in Ontario and British Columbia (BC), Canada, to estimate the incidence rate of CAP and AOM in children and adults over a 14-year period using health administrative databases. CAP and AOM cases were identified from outpatient physician consultation and hospitalisation data in both provinces, and from emergency department visit data in Ontario.

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Background: We conducted a systematic review to assess whether measles humoral immunity wanes in previously infected or vaccinated populations in measles elimination settings.

Methods: After screening 16 822 citations, we identified 9 articles from populations exposed to wild-type measles and 16 articles from vaccinated populations that met our inclusion criteria.

Results: Using linear regression, we found that geometric mean titers (GMTs) decreased significantly in individuals who received 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) by 121.

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Background: Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) burden, evaluated in Canada using reported confirmed cases in surveillance systems, is likely underestimated due to underreporting. We estimated the burden of IPD in Ontario and British Columbia (BC) by combining surveillance data with health administrative databases.

Methods: We established a cohort of 27,525 individuals in Ontario and BC.

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In 2012, the World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan,* with the objective of eliminating measles in five of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2020 (1). The Immunization Agenda 2021-2030 (IA2030) uses measles incidence as an indicator of the strength of immunization systems. The Measles-Rubella Strategic Framework 2021-2030 and the Measles Outbreaks Strategic Response Plan 2021-2023** are aligned with the IA2030 and highlight robust measles surveillance systems to document immunity gaps, identify root causes of undervaccination, and develop locally tailored solutions to ensure administration of 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) to all children.

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Background And Aims: The global burden of viral hepatitis B is substantial, and monitoring infections across the care cascade is important for elimination efforts. There is little information on care disparities by immigration status, and we aimed to quantify disease burden among immigrant subgroups.

Approach And Results: In this population-based, retrospective cohort study, we used linked laboratory and health administrative records to describe the HBV care cascade in five distinct stages: (1) lifetime prevalence; (2) diagnosis; (3) engagement with care; (4) treatment initiation; and (5) treatment continuation.

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Objectives: Although pertussis vaccines have been widely used for many decades, a burden of illness persists. Resurgences in Ontario, Canada, have not been substantial in the past decade, but an outbreak of pertussis occurred in Toronto between 1 October 2005 and 31 March 2006. Previous Ontario studies found high vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the initial years post-immunization.

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