Risk evaluation of nonvaccinated, weaned calves transported through areas under systematic foot and mouth disease (FMD) vaccination.

The recurrence and persistence of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could be the consequence of cyclic and massive transportation of calves. For this reason, in South America, vaccination strategies related to livestock dynamic are being promoted. In order to aid the evaluation of such strategies, a method for predicting the risk of transportation of nonvaccinated weaned calves was developed; this method combines expert opinion and empirical evidence using Bayesian estimators.