West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic flavivirus which often causes asymptomatic infection in humans but may develop into a deadly neuroinvasive disease. In this study, we aimed to investigate variables potentially associated with human WNV infection using human and mosquito WNV surveillance and monitoring datasets, established over 20 years, from 2003 to 2022, across the province of Ontario, Canada. We combined climatic and geographic data, mosquito surveillance data (n = 3010 sites), blood donation arboviral detection testing data in the human population, and demographic and socio-economic data from Canadian population censuses.
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November 2024
Mathematical modelling of (re)emerging infectious respiratory diseases among humans poses multiple challenges for modellers, which can arise as a result of limited data and surveillance, uncertainty in the natural history of the disease, as well as public health and individual responses to outbreaks. Here, we propose a COVID-19-inspired health state diagram (HSD) to serve as a foundational framework for conceptualising the modelling process for (re)emerging respiratory diseases, and public health responses, in the early stages of their emergence. The HSD aims to serve as a starting point for reflection on the structure and parameterisation of a transmission model to assess the impact of the (re)emerging disease and the capacity of public health interventions to control transmission.
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