Publications by authors named "N H Ogden"

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic flavivirus which often causes asymptomatic infection in humans but may develop into a deadly neuroinvasive disease. In this study, we aimed to investigate variables potentially associated with human WNV infection using human and mosquito WNV surveillance and monitoring datasets, established over 20 years, from 2003 to 2022, across the province of Ontario, Canada. We combined climatic and geographic data, mosquito surveillance data (n = 3010 sites), blood donation arboviral detection testing data in the human population, and demographic and socio-economic data from Canadian population censuses.

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  • * From 2018 to 2021, ticks were collected and analyzed for the presence of B. odocoilei, revealing a 12% overall prevalence in I. scapularis across central and eastern Canada, with higher rates in specific years.
  • * The study highlights the stable establishment of B. odocoilei in tick populations and emphasizes the need for ongoing surveillance to better understand and manage disease transmission.
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  • - Blastomycosis is caused by fungi that can change from mold to yeast, primarily spread through inhalation of spores, often found in warm, wet soils, especially near forests and waterways.
  • - It is mostly found in Canada, particularly in Ontario and Manitoba, with Northwestern Ontario seeing high case rates; however, diagnosis can be delayed because symptoms resemble those of pneumonia or tuberculosis.
  • - Climate change might increase cases of blastomycosis due to shifts in temperature and rainfall, emphasizing the need for more research to predict its effects and improve prevention strategies.
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  • - A retrospective analysis in Canada from 2009 to 2021 studied hospitalization rates for tick-borne diseases (TBDs), focusing on demographics, trends, and geographic distribution using health data from the Discharge Abstract Database (DAD).
  • - Out of 1,626 hospitalizations for TBDs, the majority were Lyme disease (1,457 cases), with significant annual increases noted, particularly rising from 50 cases in 2009 to 259 in 2021.
  • - Other TBDs diagnosed included rickettsiosis, tularemia, and babesiosis, with rickettsiosis showing the only increase in cases; overall, this study highlights the growing burden of TBDs and identifies populations at risk.
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Mathematical modelling of (re)emerging infectious respiratory diseases among humans poses multiple challenges for modellers, which can arise as a result of limited data and surveillance, uncertainty in the natural history of the disease, as well as public health and individual responses to outbreaks. Here, we propose a COVID-19-inspired health state diagram (HSD) to serve as a foundational framework for conceptualising the modelling process for (re)emerging respiratory diseases, and public health responses, in the early stages of their emergence. The HSD aims to serve as a starting point for reflection on the structure and parameterisation of a transmission model to assess the impact of the (re)emerging disease and the capacity of public health interventions to control transmission.

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