Estimated Dissemination Ratio-A Practical Alternative to the Reproduction Number for Infectious Diseases.

Policymakers require consistent and accessible tools to monitor the progress of an epidemic and the impact of control measures in real time. One such measure is the Estimated Dissemination Ratio (EDR), a straightforward, easily replicable, and robust measure of the trajectory of an outbreak that has been used for many years in the control of infectious disease in livestock. It is simple to calculate and explain.

Evolution and effects of COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: a population analysis in 189 care homes in one geographical region of the UK.

Background: COVID-19 has affected care home residents internationally, but detailed information on outbreaks is scarce. We aimed to describe the evolution of outbreaks of COVID-19 in all care homes in one large health region in Scotland.

Methods: We did a population analysis of testing, cases, and deaths in care homes in the National Health Service (NHS) Lothian health region of the UK.

A matched cohort study investigating the risk of Mycobacterium bovis infection in the progeny of infected cows.

The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of bovine tuberculosis in the progeny of cows confirmed as having bovine tuberculosis. Historical computerised records were used to undertake a retrospective cohort study. The exposed cohort was defined as the last calf of dams that were diagnosed as having bovine tuberculosis during 2002.

Destructive tension: mathematics versus experience--the progress and control of the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain.

The 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain was characterised by control using both traditional and novel methods, some resulting from conclusions of mathematical models. Seven days before the implementation of the novel controversial automatic pre-emptive culling of all susceptible livestock on premises adjacent to infected premises (the 'contiguous cull'), the spread of infection had already been controlled by a combination of the traditional stamping out policy with a national movement ban on livestock. A second controversial novel policy requiring the slaughter of sheep within 3 km of premises on which disease had been confirmed (the 3-km cull) also commenced after the peak of infection spread, was untargeted and took several weeks to complete; serosurveillance of culled sheep detected infection in only one flock, suggesting that cryptic infection of sheep was not propagating the epidemic.