Halving premature death and improving quality of life at all ages: cross-country analyses of past trends and future directions.

Background: Although death in old age is unavoidable, premature death-defined here as death before age 70 years-is not. To assess whether halving premature mortality by 2050 is feasible, we examined the large variation in premature death rates before age 70 years and trends over the past 50 years (1970-2019), covering ten world regions and the 30 most-populous nations. This analysis was undertaken in conjunction with the third report of The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health: Global Health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century.

Population assessment of health system performance in 16 countries.

Objective: To demonstrate how the new internationally comparable instrument, the People's Voice Survey, can be used to contribute the perspective of the population in assessing health system performance in countries of all levels of income.

Methods: We surveyed representative samples of populations in 16 low-, middle- and high-income countries on health-care utilization, experience and confidence during 2022-2023. We summarized and visualized data corresponding to the key domains of the World Health Organization universal health coverage framework for health system performance assessment.

Novel strategies to support global promotion of COVID-19 vaccination.

In 2021, many countries have begun distribution of COVID-19 vaccines but are hampered by significant levels of vaccine hesitancy or apathy. Experts recommend that standard health communication campaigns be expanded to include a more holistic approach of behaviourally oriented strategies. We constructed a large-scale Delphi panel of marketing and behavioural science university faculty to assess 12 previously reported US vaccination promotion strategies, asking respondents to assess applicability of the strategy in their country, how efficacy might compare to the USA and recommendations for local adaptations necessary to successful implementation.

Long shadow of fear in an epidemic: fearonomic effects of Ebola on the private sector in Nigeria.

Background: The already significant impact of the Ebola epidemic on Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, was worsened by a fear of contagion that aggravated the health crisis. However, in contrast to other Ebola-affected countries, Nigeria fared significantly better due to its swift containment of the disease. The objective of our study was to describe the impact of Ebola on the Nigerian private sector.

Conditional cash transfer schemes in Nigeria: potential gains for maternal and child health service uptake in a national pilot programme.

Background: This paper describes use of a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme to encourage use of critical MNCH services among rural women in Nigeria.

Methods: The CCT programme was first implemented as a pilot in 37 primary health care facilities (PHCs), in nine Nigerian states. The programme entitles women using these facilities up to N5,000 (approximately US$30) if they attend antenatal care (ANC), skilled delivery, and postnatal care.

Predictive spatial risk model of poliovirus to aid prioritization and hasten eradication in Nigeria.

Background: One of the challenges facing the Global Polio Eradication Initiative is efficiently directing limited resources, such as specially trained personnel, community outreach activities, and satellite vaccinator tracking, to the most at-risk areas to maximize the impact of interventions. A validated predictive model of wild poliovirus circulation would greatly inform prioritization efforts by accurately forecasting areas at greatest risk, thus enabling the greatest effect of program interventions.

Methods: Using Nigerian acute flaccid paralysis surveillance data from 2004-2013, we developed a spatial hierarchical Poisson hurdle model fitted within a Bayesian framework to study historical polio caseload patterns and forecast future circulation of type 1 and 3 wild poliovirus within districts in Nigeria.

Community health workers for universal health-care coverage: from fragmentation to synergy.

To achieve universal health coverage, health systems will have to reach into every community, including the poorest and hardest to access. Since Alma-Ata, inconsistent support of community health workers (CHWs) and failure to integrate them into the health system have impeded full realization of their potential contribution in the context of primary health care. Scaling up and maintaining CHW programmes is fraught with a host of challenges: poor planning; multiple competing actors with little coordination; fragmented, disease-specific training; donor-driven management and funding; tenuous linkage with the health system; poor coordination, supervision and support, and under-recognition of CHWs' contribution.