Competing risks mixture model for traffic incident duration prediction.

Traffic incident duration is known to result from a combination of multiple factors, including covariates such as spatial and temporal characteristics, traffic conditions, and existence of secondary accidents but also the clearance method itself. In this paper, a competing risks mixture model is used to investigate the influence of clearance methods and various covariates on the duration of traffic incidents and predict traffic incident duration. The proposed mixture model considers the uncertainty in any of five clearance methods that occurred.

Technology limits for reducing EU transport sector CO2 emissions.

Using a new data set describing the techno-economic characteristics of current and projected future transport technologies and a synthesis of existing transport demand models, lifecycle CO(2) emissions from 27 EU countries (EU27) were estimated in the absence and presence of new policy interventions to 2050. Future CO(2) emissions are strongly dependent on geographical scope and economic growth assumptions, and to a lesser extent on uncertainties in technology characteristics, but in the absence of new policy intervention they continue to rise from present-day values in all three scenarios examined. Consequently, EU27 emissions goals, which may require a 60% decrease in transport sector greenhouse gas emissions from year-1990 values by 2050, will be difficult to meet.