Habitat fragmentation mediates the mechanisms underlying long-term climate-driven thermophilization in birds.

Climatic warming can shift community composition driven by the colonization-extinction dynamics of species with different thermal preferences; but simultaneously, habitat fragmentation can mediate species' responses to warming. As this potential interactive effect has proven difficult to test empirically, we collected data on birds over 10 years of climate warming in a reservoir subtropical island system that was formed 65 years ago. We investigated how the mechanisms underlying climate-driven directional change in community composition were mediated by habitat fragmentation.

Spatial Nonstationarity in Phenological Responses of Nearctic Birds to Climate Variability.

Climate change is shifting the phenology of migratory animals earlier; yet an understanding of how climate change leads to variable shifts across populations, species and communities remains hampered by limited spatial and taxonomic sampling. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse 88,965 site-specific arrival dates from 222 bird species over 21 years to investigate the role of temperature, snowpack, precipitation, the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival timing of Nearctic birds. Interannual variation in bird arrival on breeding grounds was most strongly explained by temperature and snowpack, and less strongly by precipitation and climate oscillations.

Advances in breeding phenology outpace latitudinal and elevational shifts for North American birds tracking temperature.

Terrestrial species can respond to a warming climate in multiple ways, including shifting in space (via latitude or elevation) and time (via phenology). Evidence for such shifts is often assessed independent of other temperature-tracking mechanisms; critically, no study has compared shifts across all three spatiotemporal dimensions. Here we used two continental-scale monitoring databases to estimate trends in the breeding latitude (311 species), elevation (251 species) and phenology (111 species) of North American landbirds over 27 years, with a shared pool of 102 species.

Using unstructured crowd-sourced data to evaluate urban tolerance of terrestrial native animal species within a California Mega-City.

In response to biodiversity loss and biotic community homogenization in urbanized landscapes, there are increasing efforts to conserve and increase biodiversity within urban areas. Accordingly, around the world, previously extirpated species are (re)colonizing and otherwise infiltrating urban landscapes, while other species are disappearing from these landscapes. Tracking the occurrence of traditionally urban intolerant species and loss of traditionally urban tolerant species should be a management goal of urban areas, but we generally lack tools to study this phenomenon.

A cloudy forecast for species distribution models: Predictive uncertainties abound for California birds after a century of climate and land-use change.

Correlative species distribution models are widely used to quantify past shifts in ranges or communities, and to predict future outcomes under ongoing global change. Practitioners confront a wide range of potentially plausible models for ecological dynamics, but most specific applications only consider a narrow set. Here, we clarify that certain model structures can embed restrictive assumptions about key sources of forecast uncertainty into an analysis.

Demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony for North American songbirds.

Changes in phenology in response to ongoing climate change have been observed in numerous taxa around the world. Differing rates of phenological shifts across trophic levels have led to concerns that ecological interactions may become increasingly decoupled in time, with potential negative consequences for populations. Despite widespread evidence of phenological change and a broad body of supporting theory, large-scale multitaxa evidence for demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony remains elusive.

The combined effects of temperature and fragment area on the demographic rates of an Afrotropical bird community over 34 years.

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are two of the greatest threats to biodiversity, yet their combined impacts and potential interactions are poorly understood, particularly in the context of demographic rates. The Usambara Mountains, Tanzania, comprise a highly fragmented landscape where temperatures have increased by 0.58 °C over the last three decades.

Traits shaping urban tolerance in birds differ around the world.

As human density increases, biodiversity must increasingly co-exist with urbanization or face local extinction. Tolerance of urban areas has been linked to numerous functional traits, yet few globally consistent patterns have emerged to explain variation in urban tolerance, which stymies attempts at a generalizable predictive framework. Here, we calculate an Urban Association Index (UAI) for 3,768 bird species in 137 cities across all permanently inhabited continents.

Incorporating pyrodiversity into wildlife habitat assessments for rapid post-fire management: A woodpecker case study.

Spatial and temporal variation in fire characteristics-termed pyrodiversity-are increasingly recognized as important factors that structure wildlife communities in fire-prone ecosystems, yet there have been few attempts to incorporate pyrodiversity or post-fire habitat dynamics into predictive models of animal distributions and abundance to support post-fire management. We use the black-backed woodpecker-a species associated with burned forests-as a case study to demonstrate a pathway for incorporating pyrodiversity into wildlife habitat assessments for adaptive management. Employing monitoring data (2009-2019) from post-fire forests in California, we developed three competing occupancy models describing different hypotheses for habitat associations: (1) a static model representing an existing management tool, (2) a temporal model accounting for years since fire, and (3) a temporal-landscape model which additionally incorporates emerging evidence from field studies about the influence of pyrodiversity.

Multi-trophic occupancy modeling connects temporal dynamics of woodpeckers and beetle sign following fire.

In conifer forests of western North America, wildlife populations can change rapidly in the decade following wildfire as trees die and animals respond to concomitant resource pulses that occur across multiple trophic levels. In particular, black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus) show predictable temporal increases then declines following fire; this trajectory is widely believed to be a response to the woodpeckers' main prey, woodboring beetle larvae of the families Buprestidae and Cerambycidae, but we lack understanding of how abundances of these predators and prey may be associated in time or space. Here, we pair woodpecker surveys over 10 years with surveys of woodboring beetle sign and activity, collected at 128 survey plots across 22 recent fires, to ask whether accumulated beetle sign indicates current or past black-backed woodpecker occurrence, and whether that relationship is mediated by the number of years since fire.

The effect of insect food availability on songbird reproductive success and chick body condition: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Reports of declines in abundance and biomass of insects and other invertebrates from around the world have raised concerns about food limitation that could have profound impacts for insectivorous species. Food availability can clearly affect species; however, there is considerable variation among studies in whether this effect is evident, and thus a lack of clarity over the generality of the relationship. To understand how decreased food availability due to invertebrate declines will affect bird populations, we conducted a systematic review and used meta-analytic structural equation modelling, which allowed us to treat our core variables of interest as latent variables estimated by the diverse ways in which researchers measure fecundity and chick body condition.

Geomagnetic disturbance associated with increased vagrancy in migratory landbirds.

Rare birds known as "accidentals" or "vagrants" have long captivated birdwatchers and puzzled biologists, but the drivers of these rare occurrences remain elusive. Errors in orientation or navigation are considered one potential driver: migratory birds use the Earth's magnetic field-sensed using specialized magnetoreceptor structures-to traverse long distances over often unfamiliar terrain. Disruption to these magnetoreceptors or to the magnetic field itself could potentially cause errors leading to vagrancy.

Abiotic conditions shape spatial and temporal morphological variation in North American birds.

Quantifying environment-morphology relationships is important not only for understanding the fundamental processes driving phenotypic diversity within and among species but also for predicting how species will respond to ongoing global change. Despite a clear set of expectations motivated by ecological theory, broad evidence in support of generalizable effects of abiotic conditions on spatial and temporal intraspecific morphological variation has been limited. Using standardized data from >250,000 captures of 105 landbird species, we assessed intraspecific shifts in the morphology of adult male birds since 1989 while simultaneously measuring spatial morphological gradients across the North American continent.

Adult male birds advance spring migratory phenology faster than females and juveniles across North America.

Advances in spring migratory phenology comprise some of the most well-documented evidence for the impacts of climate change on birds. Nevertheless, surprisingly little research has investigated whether birds are shifting their migratory phenology equally across sex and age classes-a question critical to understanding the potential for trophic mismatch. We used 60 years of bird banding data across North America-comprising over 4 million captures in total-to investigate both spring and fall migratory phenology for a total of 98 bird species across sex and age classes, with the exact numbers of species for each analysis depending on season-specific data availability.

Decadal-scale phenology and seasonal climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem.

Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts.

Anna's hummingbird (Calypte anna) physiological response to novel thermal and hypoxic conditions at high elevations.

Many species have not tracked their thermal niches upslope as predicted by climate change, potentially because higher elevations are associated with abiotic challenges beyond temperature. To better predict whether organisms can continue to move upslope with rising temperatures, we need to understand their physiological performance when subjected to novel high-elevation conditions. Here, we captured Anna's hummingbirds - a species expanding their elevational distribution in concordance with rising temperatures - from across their current elevational distribution and tested their physiological response to novel abiotic conditions.

Extinction of biotic interactions due to habitat loss could accelerate the current biodiversity crisis.

Habitat loss disrupts species interactions through local extinctions, potentially orphaning species that depend on interacting partners, via mutualisms or commensalisms, and increasing secondary extinction risk. Orphaned species may become functionally or secondarily extinct, increasing the severity of the current biodiversity crisis. While habitat destruction is a major cause of biodiversity loss, the number of secondary extinctions is largely unknown.

Woody encroachment happens via intensification, not extensification, of species ranges in an African savanna.

Widespread woody encroachment is a prominent concern for savanna systems as it is often accompanied by losses in productivity and biodiversity. Extensive ecosystem-level work has advanced our understanding of its causes and consequences. However, there is still debate over whether local management can override regional and global drivers of woody encroachment, and it remains largely unknown how encroachment influences woody community assemblages.

Migratory strategy drives species-level variation in bird sensitivity to vegetation green-up.

Animals and plants are shifting the timing of key life events in response to climate change, yet despite recent documentation of escalating phenological change, scientists lack a full understanding of how and why phenological responses vary across space and among species. Here, we used over 7 million community-contributed bird observations to derive species-specific, spatially explicit estimates of annual spring migration phenology for 56 bird species across eastern North America. We show that changes in the spring arrival of migratory birds are coarsely synchronized with fluctuations in vegetation green-up and that the sensitivity of birds to plant phenology varied extensively.

Juvenile survival of a burned forest specialist in response to variation in fire characteristics.

Pyrodiversity, defined as variation in fire history and characteristics, has been shown to catalyse post-fire biodiversity in a variety of systems. However, the demographic and behavioural mechanisms driving the responses of individual species to pyrodiversity remain largely unexplored. We used a model post-fire specialist, the black-backed woodpecker (Picoides arcticus), to examine the relationship between fire characteristics and juvenile survival while controlling for confounding factors.

Nests in the cities: adaptive and non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity and convergence in an urban bird.

Phenotypic plasticity plays a critical role in adaptation to novel environments. Behavioural plasticity enables more rapid responses to unfamiliar conditions than evolution by natural selection. Urban ecosystems are one such novel environment in which behavioural plasticity has been documented.

Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Fire has been a source of global biodiversity for millions of years. However, interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are changing the nature of fire activity and its impacts. We review how such changes are threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems.

The importance of accounting for imperfect detection when estimating functional and phylogenetic community structure.

Incorporating imperfect detection when estimating species richness has become commonplace in the past decade. However, the question of how imperfect detection of species affects estimates of functional and phylogenetic community structure remains untested. We used long-term counts of breeding bird species that were detected at least once on islands in a land-bridge island system, and employed multi-species occupancy models to assess the effects of imperfect detection of species on estimates of bird diversity and community structure by incorporating species traits and phylogenies.