Weather-Based Logistic Regression Models for Predicting Wheat Head Blast Epidemics.

Wheat head blast is a major disease of wheat in the Brazilian Cerrado. Empirical models for predicting epidemics were developed using data from field trials conducted in Patos de Minas (2013 to 2019) and trials conducted across 10 other sites (2012 to 2020) in Brazil, resulting in 143 epidemics, with each being classified as either outbreak (≥20% head blast incidence) or nonoutbreak. Daily weather variables were collected from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) website and summarized for each epidemic.