Observation-constrained projections reveal longer-than-expected dry spells.

Climate models indicate that dry extremes will be exacerbated in many regions of the world. However, confidence in the magnitude and timing of these projected changes remains low, leaving societies largely unprepared. Here we show that constraining model projections with observations using a newly proposed emergent constraint (EC) reduces the uncertainty in predictions of a core drought indicator, the longest annual dry spell (LAD), by 10-26% globally.

Dryland self-expansion enabled by land-atmosphere feedbacks.

Dryland expansion causes widespread water scarcity and biodiversity loss. Although the drying influence of global warming is well established, the role of existing drylands in their own expansion is relatively unknown. In this work, by tracking the air flowing over drylands, we show that the warming and drying of that air contributes to dryland expansion in the downwind direction.

Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales.

In most of the world, conditions conducive to wildfires are becoming more prevalent. Net carbon emissions from wildfires contribute to a positive climate feedback that needs to be monitored, quantified, and predicted. Here we use a causal inference approach to evaluate the influence of top-down weather and bottom-up fuel precursors on wildfires.

High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901-2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections.

We introduce Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate conditions. The historical maps (encompassing 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990, and 1991-2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the future maps (encompassing 2041-2070 and 2071-2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We evaluated 67 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 42 with the most plausible CO-induced warming rates.

Widespread and complex drought effects on vegetation physiology inferred from space.

The response of vegetation physiology to drought at large spatial scales is poorly understood due to a lack of direct observations. Here, we study vegetation drought responses related to photosynthesis, evaporation, and vegetation water content using remotely sensed data, and we isolate physiological responses using a machine learning technique. We find that vegetation functional decreases are largely driven by the downregulation of vegetation physiology such as stomatal conductance and light use efficiency, with the strongest downregulation in water-limited regions.

Reversed Holocene temperature-moisture relationship in the Horn of Africa.

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to severely impact the global hydrological cycle, particularly in tropical regions where agriculture-based economies depend on monsoon rainfall. In the Horn of Africa, more frequent drought conditions in recent decades contrast with climate models projecting precipitation to increase with rising temperature. Here we use organic geochemical climate-proxy data from the sediment record of Lake Chala (Kenya and Tanzania) to probe the stability of the link between hydroclimate and temperature over approximately the past 75,000 years, hence encompassing a sufficiently wide range of temperatures to test the 'dry gets drier, wet gets wetter' paradigm of anthropogenic climate change in the time domain.

Land-atmosphere feedbacks contribute to crop failure in global rainfed breadbaskets.

Global crop yields are highly dependent on climate variability, with the largest agricultural failures frequently occurring during extremely dry and hot years. Land-atmosphere feedbacks are thought to play a crucial role in agricultural productivity during such events: precipitation deficits cause soil desiccation, which reduces evaporation and enhances sensible heating from the land surface; the amplified local temperatures and moisture deficits can be detrimental to crop yield. While this impact of local land-atmosphere feedbacks on agricultural productivity has recently been reported, the dependency of crop yields on upwind regions remains understudied.

Simple Models Outperform More Complex Big-Leaf Models of Daily Transpiration in Forested Biomes.

Transpiration makes up the bulk of total evaporation in forested environments yet remains challenging to predict at landscape-to-global scales. We harnessed independent estimates of daily transpiration derived from co-located sap flow and eddy-covariance measurement systems and applied the triple collocation technique to evaluate predictions from big leaf models requiring no calibration. In total, four models in 608 unique configurations were evaluated at 21 forested sites spanning a wide diversity of biophysical attributes and environmental backgrounds.

The Contribution of Transpiration to Precipitation Over African Watersheds.

The redistribution of biological (transpiration) and non-biological (interception loss, soil evaporation) fluxes of terrestrial evaporation via atmospheric circulation and precipitation is an important Earth system process. In vegetated ecosystems, transpiration dominates terrestrial evaporation and is thought to be crucial for regional moisture recycling and ecosystem functioning. However, the spatial and temporal variability in the dependency of precipitation on transpiration remains understudied, particularly in sparsely sampled regions like Africa.

Observation-based assessment of secondary water effects on seasonal vegetation decay across Africa.

Local studies and modeling experiments suggest that shallow groundwater and lateral redistribution of soil moisture, together with soil properties, can be highly important secondary water sources for vegetation in water-limited ecosystems. However, there is a lack of observation-based studies of these terrain-associated secondary water effects on vegetation over large spatial domains. Here, we quantify the role of terrain properties on the spatial variations of dry season vegetation decay rate across Africa obtained from geostationary satellite acquisitions to assess the large-scale relevance of secondary water effects.

Upgrading Land-Cover and Vegetation Seasonality in the ECMWF Coupled System: Verification With FLUXNET Sites, METEOSAT Satellite Land Surface Temperatures, and ERA5 Atmospheric Reanalysis.

In this study, we show that limitations in the representation of land cover and vegetation seasonality in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model are partially responsible for large biases (up to ∼10°C, either positive or negative depending on the region) on the simulated daily maximum land surface temperature (LST) with respect to satellite Earth Observations (EOs) products from the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility. The error patterns were coherent in offline land-surface and coupled land-atmosphere simulations, and in ECMWF's latest generation reanalysis (ERA5). Subsequently, we updated the ECMWF model's land cover characterization leveraging on state-of-the-art EOs-the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative land cover data set and the Copernicus Global Land Services leaf area index.

Characterizing the Response of Vegetation Cover to Water Limitation in Africa Using Geostationary Satellites.

Hydrological interactions between vegetation, soil, and topography are complex, and heterogeneous in semi-arid landscapes. This along with data scarcity poses challenges for large-scale modeling of vegetation-water interactions. Here, we exploit metrics derived from daily Meteosat data over Africa at ca.

Drought self-propagation in drylands due to land-atmosphere feedbacks.

Reduced evaporation due to dry soils can affect the land surface energy balance, with implications for local and downwind precipitation. When evaporation is constrained by soil moisture, the atmospheric supply of water is depleted, and this deficit may propagate in time and space. This mechanism could theoretically result in the self-propagation of droughts, but the extent to which this process occurs is unknown.

A deep learning-based hybrid model of global terrestrial evaporation.

Terrestrial evaporation (E) is a key climatic variable that is controlled by a plethora of environmental factors. The constraints that modulate the evaporation from plant leaves (or transpiration, E) are particularly complex, yet are often assumed to interact linearly in global models due to our limited knowledge based on local studies. Here, we train deep learning algorithms using eddy covariance and sap flow data together with satellite observations, aiming to model transpiration stress (S), i.

The influence of soil dry-out on the record-breaking hot 2013/2014 summer in Southeast Brazil.

The 2013/2014 summer in Southeast Brazil was marked by historical unprecedented compound dry and hot (CDH) conditions with profound socio-economic impacts. The synoptic drivers for this event have already been analyzed, and its occurrence within the context of the increasing trend of CDH conditions in the area evaluated. However, so far, the causes for these record temperatures remain poorly understood.

Multi-modal self-adaptation during object recognition in an artificial cognitive system.

The cognitive connection between the senses of touch and vision is probably the best-known case of multimodality. Recent discoveries suggest that the mapping between both senses is learned rather than innate. This evidence opens the door to a dynamic multimodality that allows individuals to adaptively develop within their environment.

Soil drought can mitigate deadly heat stress thanks to a reduction of air humidity.

Global warming increases the number and severity of deadly heatwaves. Recent heatwaves often coincided with soil droughts that intensify air temperature but lower air humidity. Since lowering air humidity may reduce human heat stress, the net impact of soil desiccation on the morbidity and mortality of heatwaves remains unclear.

Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1° resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present.

Challenges exist for assessing the impacts of climate and climate change on the hydrological cycle on local and regional scales, and in turn on water resources, food, energy, and natural hazards. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) represents atmospheric demand for water, which is required at high spatial and temporal resolutions to compute actual evapotranspiration and thus close the water balance near the land surface for many such applications, but there are currently no available high-resolution datasets of PET. Here we develop an hourly PET dataset (hPET) for the global land surface at 0.

Budyko-Based Long-Term Water and Energy Balance Closure in Global Watersheds From Earth Observations.

Earth observations offer potential pathways for accurately closing the water and energy balance of watersheds, a fundamental challenge in hydrology. However, previous attempts based on purely satellite-based estimates have focused on closing the water and energy balances separately. They are hindered by the lack of estimates of key components, such as runoff.

Stress-induced expression of IPT gene in transgenic wheat reduces grain yield penalty under drought.

Background: The heterologous expression of isopentenyl transferase (IPT) under the transcriptional control of the senescence-associated receptor-like kinase (SARK) promoter delayed cellular senescence and, through it, increased drought tolerance in plants. To evaluate the effect of pSARK::IPT expression in bread wheat, six independent transgenic events were obtained through the biolistic method and evaluated transgene expression, phenology, grain yield and physiological biomass components in plants grown under both drought and well-irrigating conditions. Experiments were performed at different levels: (i) pots and (ii) microplots inside a biosafety greenhouse, as well as under (iii) field conditions.

On the Use of the Term "Evapotranspiration".

Evaporation is the phenomenon by which a substance is converted from its liquid into its vapor phase, independently of where it lies in nature. However, language is alive, and just like regular speech, scientific terminology changes. Frequently, those changes are grounded on a solid rationale, but sometimes these semantic transitions have a fragile foundation.

Corrigendum: Waterlogging of Winter Crops at Early and Late Stages: Impacts on Leaf Physiology, Growth and Yield.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2018.