Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche.

Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate.

Mechanisms underpinning community stability along a latitudinal gradient: Insights from a niche-based approach.

At large scales, the mechanisms underpinning stability in natural communities may vary in importance due to changes in species composition, mean abundance, and species richness. Here we link species characteristics (niche positions) and community characteristics (richness and abundance) to evaluate the importance of stability mechanisms in 156 butterfly communities monitored across three European countries and spanning five bioclimatic regions. We construct niche-based hierarchical structural Bayesian models to explain first differences in abundance, population stability, and species richness between the countries, and then explore how these factors impact community stability both directly and indirectly (via synchrony and population stability).

Urbanization extends flight phenology and leads to local adaptation of seasonal plasticity in Lepidoptera.

Urbanization is gaining force globally, which challenges biodiversity, and it has recently also emerged as an agent of evolutionary change. Seasonal phenology and life cycle regulation are essential processes that urbanization is likely to alter through both the urban heat island effect (UHI) and artificial light at night (ALAN). However, how UHI and ALAN affect the evolution of seasonal adaptations has received little attention.

Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera.

Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies.

Habitat amount and distribution modify community dynamics under climate change.

Habitat fragmentation may present a major impediment to species range shifts caused by climate change, but how it affects local community dynamics in a changing climate has so far not been adequately investigated empirically. Using long-term monitoring data of butterfly assemblages, we tested the effects of the amount and distribution of semi-natural habitat (SNH), moderated by species traits, on climate-driven species turnover. We found that spatially dispersed SNH favoured the colonisation of warm-adapted and mobile species.

Landscape simplification weakens the association between terrestrial producer and consumer diversity in Europe.

Land-use change is one of the primary drivers of species loss, yet little is known about its effect on other components of biodiversity that may be at risk. Here, we ask whether, and to what extent, landscape simplification, measured as the percentage of arable land in the landscape, disrupts the functional and phylogenetic association between primary producers and consumers. Across seven European regions, we inferred the potential associations (functional and phylogenetic) between host plants and butterflies in 561 seminatural grasslands.

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation.

Higher mobility of butterflies than moths connected to habitat suitability and body size in a release experiment.

Mobility is a key factor determining lepidopteran species responses to environmental change. However, direct multispecies comparisons of mobility are rare and empirical comparisons between butterflies and moths have not been previously conducted. Here, we compared mobility between butterflies and diurnal moths and studied species traits affecting butterfly mobility.

Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.

Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits.

Density of insect-pollinated grassland plants decreases with increasing surrounding land-use intensity.

Pollinator declines have raised concerns about the persistence of plant species that depend on insect pollination, in particular by bees, for their reproduction. The impact of pollinator declines remains unknown for species-rich plant communities found in temperate seminatural grasslands. We investigated effects of land-use intensity in the surrounding landscape on the distribution of plant traits related to insect pollination in 239 European seminatural grasslands.

Model for quantifying the synergies between farmland biodiversity conservation and water protection at catchment scale.

This paper studies joint provision of two environmental non-market commodities related to agriculture: biodiversity conservation and water protection. We provide an optimising tool for analysing spatial dependencies of multifunctional agriculture at catchment scale. We show that efficiency gains can be achieved by spatial allocation and choice of the type of vegetation.

Environmental factors driving the effectiveness of European agri-environmental measures in mitigating pollinator loss--a meta-analysis.

In Europe, agri-environmental schemes (AES) have been introduced in response to concerns about farmland biodiversity declines. Yet, as AES have delivered variable results, a better understanding of what determines their success or failure is urgently needed. Focusing on pollinating insects, we quantitatively reviewed how environmental factors affect the effectiveness of AES.

Life-history traits predict species responses to habitat area and isolation: a cross-continental synthesis.

There is a lack of quantitative syntheses of fragmentation effects across species and biogeographic regions, especially with respect to species life-history traits. We used data from 24 independent studies of butterflies and moths from a wide range of habitats and landscapes in Europe and North America to test whether traits associated with dispersal capacity, niche breadth and reproductive rate modify the effect of habitat fragmentation on species richness. Overall, species richness increased with habitat patch area and connectivity.

Habitat fragmentation causes immediate and time-delayed biodiversity loss at different trophic levels.

Intensification or abandonment of agricultural land use has led to a severe decline of semi-natural habitats across Europe. This can cause immediate loss of species but also time-delayed extinctions, known as the extinction debt. In a pan-European study of 147 fragmented grassland remnants, we found differences in the extinction debt of species from different trophic levels.

Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation.

Local extinction of species can occur with a substantial delay following habitat loss or degradation. Accumulating evidence suggests that such extinction debts pose a significant but often unrecognized challenge for biodiversity conservation across a wide range of taxa and ecosystems. Species with long generation times and populations near their extinction threshold are most likely to have an extinction debt.

Relative contributions of local and regional factors to species richness and total density of butterflies and moths in semi-natural grasslands.

Metapopulation theory predicts that species richness and total population density of habitat specialists increase with increasing area and regional connectivity of the habitat. To test these predictions, we examined the relative contributions of habitat patch area, connectivity of the regional habitat network and local habitat quality to species richness and total density of butterflies and day-active moths inhabiting semi-natural grasslands. We studied butterflies and moths in 48 replicate landscapes situated in southwest Finland, including a focal patch and the surrounding network of other semi-natural grasslands within a radius of 1.

An empirical test of a diffusion model: predicting clouded apollo movements in a novel environment.

Functional connectivity is a fundamental concept in conservation biology because it sets the level of migration and gene flow among local populations. However, functional connectivity is difficult to measure, largely because it is hard to acquire and analyze movement data from heterogeneous landscapes. Here we apply a Bayesian state-space framework to parameterize a diffusion-based movement model using capture-recapture data on the endangered clouded apollo butterfly.

New insights into butterfly-environment relationships using partitioning methods.

Variation partitioning and hierarchical partitioning are novel statistical approaches that provide deeper understanding of the importance of different explanatory variables for biodiversity patterns than traditional regression methods. Using these methods, the variation in occupancy and abundance of the clouded apollo butterfly (Parnassius mnemosyne L.) was decomposed into independent and joint effects of larval and adult food resources, microclimate and habitat quantity.

Use of forest corridors by boreal Xestia moths.

We studied movements of the noctuid moths Xestia speciosa and X. fennica in a fragmented forest landscape including old-growth spruce forest corridors in eastern Finland. We individually marked and released 1,796 adults of the habitat generalist X.