The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries.

Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful analysis and quantitative understanding on their effects. To this end, we model the influence of cross-border mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 in the neighbouring Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

Efficacy and effectiveness of case isolation and quarantine during a growing phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland.

Based on data collected as part of the contact tracing activity of the City of Helsinki Epidemiological Operations Unit, we evaluated the efficacy and effectiveness of isolating SARS-CoV-2 cases and quarantining their exposed contacts during a mildly growing phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland in autumn 2020. Based on the observed symptom-to-symptom intervals in 1016 pairs of primary and secondary cases, we estimated that without case isolation or quarantine 40[Formula: see text] (90[Formula: see text] credible interval, CI 25-59) of transmission would have occurred on the day of or after symptom onset. One third of SARS-CoV-2 cases (N = 1521) had initially been quarantined, with a self-reported time until isolation (quarantine) of 0.

Social Distancing and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Potential Early in the Epidemic in Finland.

Background: Information about social mixing patterns under heavy social distancing is needed to model the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Methods: We conducted a survey on daily person-to-person contacts during the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Finland, one month after strong social distancing measures had been introduced nationwide. We defined a contact as exchange of at least a few words in proximity of another person.

Contrasting the impact of cytotoxic and cytostatic drug therapies on tumour progression.

A tumour grows when the total division (birth) rate of its cells exceeds their total mortality (death) rate. The capability for uncontrolled growth within the host tissue is acquired via the accumulation of driver mutations which enable the tumour to progress through various hallmarks of cancer. We present a mathematical model of the penultimate stage in such a progression.

Identifying Multiple Potential Metabolic Cycles in Time-Series from Biolog Experiments.

Biolog Phenotype Microarray (PM) is a technology allowing simultaneous screening of the metabolic behaviour of bacteria under a large number of different conditions. Bacteria may often undergo several cycles of metabolic activity during a Biolog experiment. We introduce a novel algorithm to identify these metabolic cycles in PM experimental data, thus increasing the potential of PM technology in microbiology.

Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons - An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model.

The threat of the new pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 imposed a heavy burden on the public health system in Finland in 2009-2010. An extensive vaccination campaign was set up in the middle of the first pandemic season. However, the true number of infected individuals remains uncertain as the surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections.

The impact of host metapopulation structure on the population genetics of colonizing bacteria.

Many key bacterial pathogens are frequently carried asymptomatically, and the emergence and spread of these opportunistic pathogens can be driven, or mitigated, via demographic changes within the host population. These inter-host transmission dynamics combine with basic evolutionary parameters such as rates of mutation and recombination, population size and selection, to shape the genetic diversity within bacterial populations. Whilst many studies have focused on how molecular processes underpin bacterial population structure, the impact of host migration and the connectivity of the local populations has received far less attention.

Novel R pipeline for analyzing Biolog Phenotypic MicroArray data.

Data produced by Biolog Phenotype MicroArrays are longitudinal measurements of cells' respiration on distinct substrates. We introduce a three-step pipeline to analyze phenotypic microarray data with novel procedures for grouping, normalization and effect identification. Grouping and normalization are standard problems in the analysis of phenotype microarrays defined as categorizing bacterial responses into active and non-active, and removing systematic errors from the experimental data, respectively.

Parallel independent evolution of pathogenicity within the genus Yersinia.

The genus Yersinia has been used as a model system to study pathogen evolution. Using whole-genome sequencing of all Yersinia species, we delineate the gene complement of the whole genus and define patterns of virulence evolution. Multiple distinct ecological specializations appear to have split pathogenic strains from environmental, nonpathogenic lineages.