Child mortality estimation: accelerated progress in reducing global child mortality, 1990-2010.

Monitoring development indicators has become a central interest of international agencies and countries for tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. In this review, which also provides an introduction to a collection of articles, we describe the methodology used by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to track country-specific changes in the key indicator for Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), the decline of the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age five, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and (5)q(0)). We review how relevant data from civil registration, sample registration, population censuses, and household surveys are compiled and assessed for United Nations member states, and how time series regression models are fitted to all points of acceptable quality to establish the trends in U5MR from which infant and neonatal mortality rates are generally derived.

A New Method for Deriving Global Estimates of Maternal Mortality.

Maternal mortality is widely regarded as a key indicator of population health and of social and economic development. Its levels and trends are monitored closely by the United Nations and others, inspired in part by the UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which call for a three-fourths reduction in the maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2015. Unfortunately, the empirical basis for such monitoring remains quite weak, requiring the use of statistical models to obtain estimates for most countries.

A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation.

Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database.

Neonatal mortality levels for 193 countries in 2009 with trends since 1990: a systematic analysis of progress, projections, and priorities.

Background: Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990-2009 with forecasts into the future.

The way forward.

Good public-health decisionmaking is dependent on reliable and timely statistics on births and deaths (including the medical causes of death). All high-income countries, without exception, have national civil registration systems that record these events and generate regular, frequent, and timely vital statistics. By contrast, these statistics are not available in many low-income and lower-middle-income countries, even though it is in such settings that premature mortality is most severe and the need for robust evidence to back decisionmaking most critical.

Estimates of maternal mortality worldwide between 1990 and 2005: an assessment of available data.

Background: Maternal mortality, as a largely avoidable cause of death, is an important focus of international development efforts, and a target for Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5. However, data weaknesses have made monitoring progress problematic. In 2006, a new maternal mortality working group was established to develop improved estimation methods and make new estimates of maternal mortality for 2005, and to analyse trends in maternal mortality since 1990.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries.

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption.

Counting the dead and what they died from: an assessment of the global status of cause of death data.

Objective: We sought to assess the current status of global data on death registration and to examine several indicators of data completeness and quality.

Methods: We summarized the availability of death registration data by year and country. Indicators of data quality were assessed for each country and included the timeliness, completeness and coverage of registration and the proportion of deaths assigned to ill-defined causes.

The global mortality of infectious and parasitic diseases in children.

Although considerable advances in the reduction of global child morbidity and mortality have been made since 1970, when more than 17 million children died, the burden of child mortality is still intolerably high today. An estimated 10.5 million younger than the age of 5 years died in the year 2002 from largely preventable diseases, such as those having infectious, parasitic, and perinatal causes.