When can we identify the students at risk of failure in the national medical licensure examination in Japan using the predictive pass rate?

Context: Failure of students to pass the National Medical Licensure Examination (NMLE) is a major problem for universities and the health system in Japan. To assist students at risk for NMLE failure as early as possible after admission, this study investigated the time points (from the time of admission to graduation) at which predictive pass rate (PPR) can be used to identify students at risk of failing the NMLE.

Methods: Seven consecutive cohorts of medical students between 2012 and 2018 (n = 637) at the Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine were investigated.