A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations.

Understanding the temporal dynamics of mosquito populations underlying vector-borne disease transmission is key to optimizing control strategies. Many questions remain surrounding the drivers of these dynamics and how they vary between species-questions rarely answerable from individual entomological studies (that typically focus on a single location or species). We develop a novel statistical framework enabling identification and classification of time series with similar temporal properties, and use this framework to systematically explore variation in population dynamics and seasonality in anopheline mosquito time series catch data spanning seven species, 40 years and 117 locations across mainland India.

Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

Although previous evidence suggests that the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 varies by age and sex, and that transmission intensity varies geographically within countries, no study has yet explored the age-sex-space distribution of excess mortality associated with the COVID pandemic. By applying the principles of small-area estimation to existing model formulations for excess mortality, this study develops a novel method for assessing excess mortality across small populations and assesses the pattern of COVID excess mortality by province, year, week, age group, and sex in Italy from March through May 2020. We estimate that 53,200 excess deaths occurred across Italy during this time period, compared to just 35,500 deaths where COVID-19 was registered as the underlying cause of death.

Order Matters: The Benefits of Ordinal Fragility Curves for Damage and Loss Estimation.

Probabilistic loss assessments from natural hazards require the quantification of structural vulnerability. Building damage data can be used to estimate fragility curves to obtain realistic descriptions of the relationship between a hazard intensity measure and the probability of exceeding certain damage grades. Fragility curves based on the lognormal cumulative distribution function are popular because of their empirical performance as well as theoretical properties.

Global estimation of anti-malarial drug effectiveness for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria 1991-2019.

Background: Anti-malarial drugs play a critical role in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality, but their role is mediated by their effectiveness. Effectiveness is defined as the probability that an anti-malarial drug will successfully treat an individual infected with malaria parasites under routine health care delivery system. Anti-malarial drug effectiveness (AmE) is influenced by drug resistance, drug quality, health system quality, and patient adherence to drug use; its influence on malaria burden varies through space and time.

Efficacy of Selpercatinib in -Altered Thyroid Cancers.

Background: mutations occur in 70% of medullary thyroid cancers, and fusions occur rarely in other thyroid cancers. In patients with -altered thyroid cancers, the efficacy and safety of selective RET inhibition are unknown.

Methods: We enrolled patients with -mutant medullary thyroid cancer with or without previous vandetanib or cabozantinib treatment, as well as those with previously treated fusion-positive thyroid cancer, in a phase 1-2 trial of selpercatinib.

Efficacy of Selpercatinib in Fusion-Positive Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

Background: fusions are oncogenic drivers in 1 to 2% of non-small-cell lung cancers (NSCLCs). In patients with fusion-positive NSCLC, the efficacy and safety of selective RET inhibition are unknown.

Methods: We enrolled patients with advanced fusion-positive NSCLC who had previously received platinum-based chemotherapy and those who were previously untreated separately in a phase 1-2 trial of selpercatinib.

Mapping malaria seasonality in Madagascar using health facility data.

Background: Many malaria-endemic areas experience seasonal fluctuations in case incidence as Anopheles mosquito and Plasmodium parasite life cycles respond to changing environmental conditions. Identifying location-specific seasonality characteristics is useful for planning interventions. While most existing maps of malaria seasonality use fixed thresholds of rainfall, temperature, and/or vegetation indices to identify suitable transmission months, we construct a statistical modelling framework for characterising the seasonal patterns derived directly from monthly health facility data.

The origins and relatedness structure of mixed infections vary with local prevalence of malaria.

Individual malaria infections can carry multiple strains of with varying levels of relatedness. Yet, how local epidemiology affects the properties of such mixed infections remains unclear. Here, we develop an enhanced method for strain deconvolution from genome sequencing data, which estimates the number of strains, their proportions, identity-by-descent (IBD) profiles and individual haplotypes.

Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

Background: Since 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. In tandem with increased availability of geospatially resolved data, malaria control programmes increasingly use high-resolution maps to characterise spatially heterogeneous patterns of disease risk and thus efficiently target areas of high burden.

Methods: We updated and refined the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical incidence models for sub-Saharan Africa, which rely on cross-sectional survey data for parasite rate and intervention coverage.

Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

Background: Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes-particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies-require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017.

malariaAtlas: an R interface to global malariometric data hosted by the Malaria Atlas Project.

Background: The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) has worked to assemble and maintain a global open-access database of spatial malariometric data for over a decade. This data spans various formats and topics, including: geo-located surveys of malaria parasite rate; global administrative boundary shapefiles; and global and regional rasters representing the distribution of malaria and associated illnesses, blood disorders, and intervention coverage. MAP has recently released malariaAtlas, an R package providing a direct interface to MAP's routinely-updated malariometric databases and research outputs.

Prognosis of hypercalcemia in aerodigestive tract cancers: study of 136 recent cases.

Recent data issuing the prognostic impact of hypercalcemia on outcome of aerodigestive tract cancers are spare. To assess the prognosis and the survival of head and neck cancer patients with hypercalcemia, we reviewed 136 recent successive cases, including also oesophageal and lung cancers. Data were collected from a retrospective database (July 2002-January 2004).

Causes of fever and value of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin in differentiating infections from paraneoplastic fever.

Objective: The aims of our retrospective study were to study first the causes of 245 febrile episodes in cancer patients and then the value of procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in differentiating infections from paraneoplastic fever.

Method: The causes of fever were studied in 245 consecutive cases observed between January and December 2002, and PCT and CRP diagnostic value in 155 cases (114 infections and 41 paraneoplastic fever).

Results: The two main causes of fever were infection (121 cases) and paraneoplastic fever (43 cases); 77 infections were microbiologically documented.