Objectives: The goals of this paper are: (1) to identify groups of healthy people; and (2) to quantify the extent to which the Dutch risk adjustment (RA) model overpays insurers for these groups.
Background: There have been strong signals that insurers in the Dutch regulated health insurance market engage in actions to attract healthy people. A potential explanation for this behavior is that the Dutch RA model overpays insurers for healthy people.
Health insurance markets with community-rated premiums typically use risk equalization (RE) to compensate insurers for predictable profits on people in good health and predictable losses on those with a chronic disease. Over the past decades RE models have evolved from simple demographic models to sophisticated health-based models. Despite the improvements, however, non-trivial predictable profits and losses remain.
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