Recent evidence on the illicit cigarette trade in Latin America.

The tobacco industry continues to present the illicit trade of tobacco products as a reason to slow, stop, or reverse tobacco control efforts in Latin America, including increasing tobacco excise taxes. In most cases, industry estimates of illicit trade, usually non-transparent and flawed, dwarf those of independent, rigorous research. Often, independent studies find that the levels of illicit trade are mostly non-consequential or easily manageable (<12%).

An analysis of cigarette sales during Poland's menthol cigarette sales ban: small effects with large policy implications.

Background: In May 2020, the European Union Tobacco Products Directive mandated that EU member states, including Poland, ban the sale of menthol cigarettes. With menthol making up 28% of cigarette sales before the ban, Poland is the country with likely the largest menthol cigarette sales share in the world to ban their sale. We analyze how this ban changed the Polish tobacco market.

Illicit trade in tobacco products: recent trends and coming challenges.

Background: Illicit trade in tobacco products is a menace to the goal of eliminating tobacco consumption. Although tax policy is very effective in reducing consumption, illicit trade can reduce (though not eliminate) its effectiveness.

Methods: This article discusses the recent evolution of illicit trade and the context in which it occurred; the new methods that have been developed to measure it and, finally, the challenges in the next phase in the control of illicit trade.

Cigarette Price Increases, Advertising Ban, and Pictorial Warnings as Determinants of Youth Smoking Initiation in Poland.

Introduction: Europe's Beating Cancer Plan aims to create a "Tobacco-Free Generation" by 2040. To generate meaningful public health policy to achieve this target, we must understand more clearly the determinants of youth smoking initiation.

Aims And Methods: We examine the determinants of cigarette-smoking initiation in Poland using survival analysis techniques and data from four youth smoking surveys: the 2003, 2009, and 2016 Global Youth Tobacco Surveys (GYTS) and the 2019 PolNicoYouth survey (number of person-period observations N = 164 807).

Cigarette Prices and Smoking Behavior in Israel: Findings from a National Study of Adults (2002-2017).

Tobacco taxation and price policies are considered the most effective for lowering demand for tobacco products. While this statement is based on research from numerous countries, scant evidence exists on this topic for Israel. Accordingly, we assessed the association between cigarette prices and smoking prevalence and intensity from a national sample of adults in Israel (2002-2017).

Illicit tobacco trade: empty pack survey in eight Argentinean cities.

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of illicit tobacco trade (ITT) and different ITT modes-tax stamp counterfeiting and smuggling-in Argentina.

Design: Cross-sectional study using an empty tobacco pack survey with a simple random cluster sampling design. Classification as licit/illicit using forensic analysis of tax stamps and packs and econometric modelling.

Proportion of cancer cases and deaths attributable to alcohol consumption by US state, 2013-2016.

Background: Alcohol consumption is an established risk factor for several cancer types, but there are no contemporary published estimates of the state-level burden of cancer attributed to alcoholic beverage consumption. Such estimates are needed to inform public policy and cancer control efforts. We estimated the proportion and number of incident cancer cases and cancer deaths attributable to alcohol consumption by sex in adults aged ≥30 years in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2013-2016.

Tobacco 21 adoption decreased sales of cigarette brands purchased by young people: a translation of population health survey data to gain insight into market data for policy analysis.

Introduction: Policies raising the minimum age of sale of tobacco products to 21 (T21) proliferated at state and local levels across the USA before a federal policy was adopted. Evidence of the effectiveness of these policies is building and lags implementation. This study exploits demographic patterns of cigarette brand purchasing to evaluate the effectiveness of T21.

Cross-validation of four different survey methods used to estimate illicit cigarette consumption in Brazil.

Objective: To cross-validate estimates of the size of the illicit cigarette trade based on the results of four different survey methods.

Methods: In 2018/2019, four non-industry-funded, large-scale studies were conducted in selected Brazilian cities: packs discarded in household garbage/PDG (1 city), packs littered in the streets/PLS (5 cities), a phone survey of tobacco users' purchase behaviors/VIGITEL (5 cities), and a face-to-face household survey of tobacco users' purchase behaviors/FTF-household (2 cities). The proportions of illicit cigarettes consumed were based on the price paid by smokers in their last purchase (VIGITEL or FTF-household) and/or direct observation of brand names and health warnings (PDG, PLS or FTF-household).

Price, Income, and Affordability as the Determinants of Tobacco Consumption: A Practitioner's Guide to Tobacco Taxation.

Introduction: Tobacco product prices and consumers' income are the two major economic determinants of tobacco demand. The affordability of tobacco products is dependent on the price of tobacco products relative to consumer income. Increase in tobacco tax is expected to lead to higher price, lower affordability, and reduced consumption.

Organizational and Financial Analysis of Polish Tobacco Control Program in 2000-2018.

In accordance with the provisions of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), each country shall promote and strengthen public awareness of tobacco control issues (Article 12). Many parties to the FCTC have adopted national tobacco control programs to organize their tobacco control activities. The aim of our study was to analyze the organization and funding of the Polish Tobacco Control Program in years 2000-2018.

Legal Steps to Secure the Tobacco Supply Chain: A Case Study of Poland.

The threat of tobacco tax evasion and avoidance is the most commonly mentioned argument against tax hikes. Increasingly, the focus of legislators is on leaks in the tobacco crop supply chain, in which raw or cured tobacco that was never taxed finds its way to smokers. To study the process undertaken by Poland to secure the tobacco supply chain, we analyzed the 2013-2018 legislation around tobacco supply and interviewed a key stakeholder in the Government of Poland.

Measuring the illicit cigarette market in Mexico: a cross validation of two methodologies.

Objective: To compare two methods to estimate the magnitude of the illicit cigarette trade in Mexico and to contrast these results with tobacco industry figures.

Methods: We used two survey methods: a smoker survey and a discarded pack survey. Data were collected in eight major cities in Mexico between November and December 2017.

Effects of Prices on Youth Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Initiation in Ghana and Nigeria.

: Population growth in the African region is set to outpace the rate of decline in smoking prevalence, leading to a projected increase in the total number of smokers. As most tobacco users initiate during their adolescent years, tobacco prevention strategies targeting youth will be particularly important. : This study estimated the impact of cigarette prices on youth cigarette smoking and tobacco use initiation in Ghana and Nigeria using the Global Youth Tobacco Survey data.

Effect of IQOS introduction on cigarette sales: evidence of decline and replacement.

Background: Philip Morris International, one of the largest transnational cigarette manufacturers, has heavily invested in its new heated tobacco product, IQOS, marketing it aggressively as a less harmful alternative to cigarette smoking. The company's assertions that the product replaces cigarettes in a market have never been independently tested. The objective of this study is to determine whether introduction of IQOS affected cigarette sales in a large economy.

Prices and cross-border cigarette purchases in the EU: evidence from demand modelling.

Background: Previous studies of cross-border cigarette purchases in the European Union (EU) relied on survey-reported data. Results of those studies might be affected by under-reporting of tax avoidance in those surveys. This study aims to shed light on the effects of cigarette price differences between EU Member States on cross-border cigarette purchases using a method that is free from potential reporting bias.

No surge in illicit cigarettes after implementation of menthol ban in Nova Scotia.

Background: In May 2015, the Canadian province of Nova Scotia became the first jurisdiction in the world to ban menthol cigarettes specifically. The tobacco industry warned that 'the primary effect of this law will be to increase the illegal tobacco market in Nova Scotia'. This is the first attempt to examine the impact of the menthol ban on trends in illicit cigarettes.

Country-specific costs of implementing the WHO FCTC tobacco control policies and potential financing sources.

Background: One of the major obstacles to the full implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC) tobacco control measures is the lack of sustainable financing resources.

Goal: To update and simulate country-specific indicators that are highly relevant to the costs and financial resources of the treaty policy implementation. We also developed an Excel tool for simulation and assessed the aggregated-level indicators by the 2016 World Bank income groups.

Tax harmonisation and tobacco product prices in the European Union, 2004-2015.

Objectives: The European Commission has formally opened a process of revision of its tobacco tax directive. The purpose of this study is to analyse the evolution of cigarette and roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco prices in order to identify avenues for the improvement of public health goals.

Methods: Pooled cross-sectional data on prices and taxes on cigarettes and RYO tobacco in the Member States over 2004-2015 is used to track the distributions of the most popular price category and the weighted average price of these products and to relate them to the underlying tax structure.

Trend in the affordability of tobacco products in Bangladesh: findings from the ITC Bangladesh Surveys.

Background: The price of tobacco products in relation to the income of tobacco users-affordability-is recognised as a key determinant of tobacco use behaviour. The effectiveness of a price increase as a deterrent to tobacco use depends on how much price increases in relation to the income of the potential users. The aim of this paper is to examine the distribution of and trends in the affordability of tobacco products in Bangladesh.

Price, tax and tobacco product substitution in Zambia: findings from the ITC Zambia Surveys.

Background: In Zambia, the number of cigarette users is growing, and the lack of strong tax policies is likely an important cause. When adjusted for inflation, levels of tobacco tax have not changed since 2007. Moreover, roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco, a less-costly alternative to factory-made (FM) cigarettes, is highly prevalent.

Who's still smoking? Disparities in adult cigarette smoking prevalence in the United States.

The continuing high prevalence of cigarette smoking among specific subpopulations, many of them vulnerable, is one of the most pressing challenges facing the tobacco control community. These populations include individuals in lower education and/or socioeconomic groups; from certain racial/ethnic groups; in the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community; with mental illness; and in the military, particularly among those in the lowest pay grades. Although traditional tobacco control measures are having positive health effects for most groups, the effects are not sufficient for others.

The intergenerational transmission of obesity: The role of time preferences and self-control.

Previous research has found that impatient time preferences and self-control problems (present bias) are related to increased obesity risk. However, scant evidence exists pertaining to whether parents' impatience and self-control problems impact the obesity status of their children, too. Accordingly, we explore this study question among a large national sample of US adults and their children.

Disentangling regional trade agreements, trade flows and tobacco affordability in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: In principle, trade and investment agreements are meant to boost economic growth. However, the removal of trade barriers and the provision of investment incentives to attract foreign direct investments may facilitate increased trade in and/or more efficient production of commodities considered harmful to health such as tobacco. We analyze existing evidence on trade and investment liberalization and its relationship to tobacco trade in Sub-Saharan African countries.