To Estimate or to Forecast? Lessons From a Comparative Analysis of Four Bayesian Fitting Methods Based on Nonparametric Models.

Using pharmacokinetic (PK) models and Bayesian methods in dosing software facilitates the analysis of individual PK data and precision dosing. Several Bayesian methods are available for computing Bayesian posterior distributions using nonparametric population models. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of the maximum a posteriori (MAP) model, multiple model (MM), interacting MM (IMM), and novel hybrid MM(HMM) in estimating past concentrations and predicting future concentrations during therapy.

Prospective Trial on the Use of Trough Concentration versus Area under the Curve To Determine Therapeutic Vancomycin Dosing.

We hypothesized that dosing vancomycin to achieve trough concentrations of >15 mg/liter overdoses many adults compared to area under the concentration-time curve (AUC)-guided dosing. We conducted a 3-year, prospective study of vancomycin dosing, plasma concentrations, and outcomes. In year 1, nonstudy clinicians targeted trough concentrations of 10 to 20 mg/liter (infection dependent) and controlled dosing.

Accurately Achieving Target Busulfan Exposure in Children and Adolescents With Very Limited Sampling and the BestDose Software.

Background: Busulfan dose adjustment is routinely guided by plasma concentration monitoring using 4-9 blood samples per dose adjustment, but a pharmacometric Bayesian approach could reduce this sample burden.

Methods: The authors developed a nonparametric population model with Pmetrics. They used it to simulate optimal initial busulfan dosages, and in a blinded manner, they compared dosage adjustments using the model in the BestDose software to dosage adjustments calculated by noncompartmental estimation of area under the time-concentration curve at a national reference laboratory in a cohort of patients not included in model building.

Achieving target voriconazole concentrations more accurately in children and adolescents.

Despite the documented benefit of voriconazole therapeutic drug monitoring, nonlinear pharmacokinetics make the timing of steady-state trough sampling and appropriate dose adjustments unpredictable by conventional methods. We developed a nonparametric population model with data from 141 previously richly sampled children and adults. We then used it in our multiple-model Bayesian adaptive control algorithm to predict measured concentrations and doses in a separate cohort of 33 pediatric patients aged 8 months to 17 years who were receiving voriconazole and enrolled in a pharmacokinetic study.

Combination treatment with meropenem plus levofloxacin is synergistic against Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection in a murine model of pneumonia.

Background: Meropenem plus levofloxacin treatment was shown to be a promising combination in our in vitro hollow fiber infection model. We strove to validate this finding in a murine Pseudomonas pneumonia model.

Methods: A dose-ranging study with meropenem and levofloxacin alone and in combination against Pseudomonas aeruginosa was performed in a granulocytopenic murine pneumonia model.

Analysis of combination drug therapy to develop regimens with shortened duration of treatment for tuberculosis.

Rationale: Tuberculosis remains a worldwide problem, particularly with the advent of multi-drug resistance. Shortening therapy duration for Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a major goal, requiring generation of optimal kill rate and resistance-suppression. Combination therapy is required to attain the goal of shorter therapy.

A two-compartment population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model of digoxin in adults, with implications for dosage.

A population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model of digoxin in adult subjects was originally developed by Reuning et al in 1973. They clearly described the 2-compartment behavior of digoxin, the lack of correlation of effect with serum concentrations, and the close correlation of the observed inotropic effect of digoxin with the calculated amount of drug present in the peripheral nonserum compartment. Their model seemed most attractive for clinical use.

Two general methods for population pharmacokinetic modeling: non-parametric adaptive grid and non-parametric Bayesian.

Population pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling methods can be statistically classified as either parametric or nonparametric (NP). Each classification can be divided into maximum likelihood (ML) or Bayesian (B) approaches. In this paper we discuss the nonparametric case using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches.

Population modeling and Monte Carlo simulation study of the pharmacokinetics and antituberculosis pharmacodynamics of rifampin in lungs.

Little information exists on the pulmonary pharmacology of antituberculosis drugs. We used population pharmacokinetic modeling and Monte Carlo simulation to describe and explore the pulmonary pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of rifampin (RIF; rifampicin). A population pharmacokinetic model that adequately described the plasma, epithelial lining fluid (ELF), and alveolar cell (AC) concentrations of RIF in a population of 34 human volunteers was made by use of the nonparametric adaptive grid (NPAG) algorithm.

A population pharmacokinetic model of epidural lidocaine in geriatric patients: effects of low-dose dopamine.

The purposes of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model of epidural lidocaine in geriatric patients, to search for any difference in the PK behavior of epidural lidocaine when dopamine is given concurrently, and to develop a descriptive PK model from which to calculate dosage and infusion regimens of epidural lidocaine to define and achieve desired target goals in either the epidural or the serum compartment. Twenty patients over age 65 years, undergoing peripheral vascular surgery using continuous epidural lidocaine anesthesia, were studied. Ten patients also received an intravenous infusion of placebo (normal saline), whereas 10 other patients received an intravenous infusion of dopamine at 2 mug/kg per minute.

Recombinant human erythropoietin for the treatment of renal anaemia in children: no justification for bodyweight-adjusted dosage.

Background: Drug doses for children are usually calculated by reducing adult doses in proportion to bodyweight. The clinically effective dose of recombinant human erythropoietin (epoetin) in children, however, seems to be higher than predicted by this calculation.

Objective: To determine the quantitative relationship between epoetin dose, bodyweight and response in children with end-stage renal disease.