Fisheries management in the face of uncertainty: Designing time-area closures that are effective under multiple spatial patterns of fishing effort displacement in an estuarine gill net fishery.

A commonly cited reason for the failure of time-area closures to achieve fisheries management goals is the displacement of fishing effort from inside the closure into the surrounding area still open to fishing. Designing time-area closures that are predicted to achieve management goals under multiple spatial patterns of effort redistribution will increase chances of success. Using data from an estuarine gill net fishery, we tested if there are time-area closures predicted to reduce bycatch of two protected species groups while maintaining target catch under four simulated effort redistribution patterns.