Probability judgment and subadditivity: the role of working memory capacity and constraining retrieval.

In this research, we examined the role that individual differences in working memory (WM) capacity, the strength of alternatives, and time constraints play in probability judgment and subadditivity. With a laboratory-based learning task, Experiment 1 revealed that the degree to which participants' probability judgments were subadditive was negatively correlated with a measure of WM capacity, even when variance due to short-term memory capacity was removed. In addition, participants were more subadditive when the viable alternatives were all rather weak.

Hypothesis generation, probability judgment, and individual differences in working memory capacity.

This research examined the role of working memory (WM) in probability judgment and hypothesis generation using a simulated task that involved estimating the likelihood that particular menu items would be ordered by customers at a dinner. Five main findings were observed. First, judgments of the likelihood of individual items were made relative to alternatives retrieved from long-term memory.

Reducing bias in frequency judgment by improving source monitoring.

A common finding in judgment and decision making is that people's frequency judgments often fail to map onto objective frequencies. The present research examined the possibility that one source of bias in frequency judgment is attributable to people's inability to screen out irrelevant memory traces. We used a two-list source-monitoring paradigm to investigate whether frequency judgments are influenced by "extra-experimental" experiences and whether enhancing source monitoring improves judgment accuracy.

Aiding planning in air traffic control: an experimental investigation of the effects of perceptual information integration.

Prior research examined how controllers plan in their traditional environment and identified various information uncertainties as detriments to planning. A planning aid was designed to reduce this uncertainty by perceptually representing important constraints. This included integrating spatial information on the radar screen with discrete information (planned sequences of air traffic).