Publications by authors named "Michael L Goulden"

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency of drought, wildfire, and invasions of non-native species. Although high-severity fires linked to drought can inhibit recovery of native vegetation in forested ecosystems, it remains unclear how drought impacts the recovery of other plant communities following wildfire. We leveraged an existing rainfall manipulation experiment to test the hypothesis that reduced precipitation, fuel load, and fire severity convert plant community composition from native shrubs to invasive grasses in a Southern California coastal sage scrub system.

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The critical temperature beyond which photosynthetic machinery in tropical trees begins to fail averages approximately 46.7 °C (T). However, it remains unclear whether leaf temperatures experienced by tropical vegetation approach this threshold or soon will under climate change.

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Wildfire modifies the short- and long-term exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, with impacts on ecosystem services such as carbon uptake. Dry western US forests historically experienced low-intensity, frequent fires, with patches across the landscape occupying different points in the fire-recovery trajectory. Contemporary perturbations, such as recent severe fires in California, could shift the historic stand-age distribution and impact the legacy of carbon uptake on the landscape.

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Article Synopsis
  • Nature-based climate solutions, such as improved forest management (IFM) projects, play a key role in California’s strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2045, primarily contributing to the state's cap-and-trade program through carbon offsets.
  • A study assessing 37 IFM projects using remote sensing data highlights that carbon accumulation attributed to these projects is often not additional to what would have occurred naturally, indicating potential weaknesses in current evaluation protocols.
  • Five main findings, including ongoing natural carbon accumulation in California's forests, high pre-project harvest rates, and unchanged carbon rates post-project, suggest a need for improved methodology to accurately measure the effectiveness of these offset projects.
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Changing wildfire regimes in the western US and other fire-prone regions pose considerable risks to human health and ecosystem function. However, our understanding of wildfire behavior is still limited by a lack of data products that systematically quantify fire spread, behavior and impacts. Here we develop a novel object-based system for tracking the progression of individual fires using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections.

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Article Synopsis
  • California has seen more wildfires in recent years, and these fires can really affect the environment.
  • A study analyzed fire behavior from 2012 to 2018 and found that human-caused fires spread faster and cause more damage than those caused by lightning.
  • The research suggests that to protect forests, we should try to stop human-caused fires, especially when the weather is really dry and hot.
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An essential component of sustainable forest management is accurate monitoring of forest activities. Although monitoring efforts have generally increased for many forests throughout the world, in practice, effective monitoring is complex. Determining the magnitude and location of progress towards sustainability targets can be challenging due to diverse forest operations across multiple jurisdictions, the lack of data standardization, and discrepancies between field inspections and remotely-sensed records.

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Burned area has increased across California, especially in the Sierra Nevada range. Recent fires there have had devasting social, economic, and ecosystem impacts. To understand the consequences of new extremes in fire weather, here we quantify the sensitivity of wildfire occurrence and burned area in the Sierra Nevada to daily meteorological variables during 2001–2020.

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Accurate descriptions of current ecosystem composition are essential for improving terrestrial biosphere model predictions of how ecosystems are responding to climate variability and change. This study investigates how imaging spectrometry-derived ecosystem composition can constrain and improve terrestrial biosphere model predictions of regional-scale carbon, water and energy fluxes. Incorporating imaging spectrometry-derived composition of five plant functional types (Grasses/Shrubs, Oaks/Western Hardwoods, Western Pines, Fir/Cedar and High-elevation Pines) into the Ecosystem Demography (ED2) terrestrial biosphere model improves predictions of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across four flux towers of the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO) spanning a 2250 m elevational gradient in the western Sierra Nevada.

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Article Synopsis
  • Climate warming has harmed forest health in the western U.S., particularly for ponderosa pine trees, as evidenced by increased drought-related mortality rates during the 2012-2015 California drought.
  • Researchers observed that over five decades, tree growth and carbon isotope patterns showed heightened sensitivity to drought indicators, suggesting these patterns may serve as early warning signs for potential forest mortality.
  • Management strategies like thinning trees or controlled burns may alleviate competition for water and reduce bark beetle infestations, which could help forests become more resilient to drought stress and mitigate future mortality risks.
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Article Synopsis
  • - The FLUXNET2015 dataset encompasses ecosystem-scale data on carbon dioxide, water, and energy exchange, collected from 212 global sites contributing over 1500 site-years of data until 2014.
  • - The dataset was systematically quality controlled and processed, facilitating consistency for various applications in ecophysiology, remote sensing, and ecosystem modeling.
  • - For the first time, derived data products such as time series, ecosystem respiration, and photosynthesis estimates are included, and 206 sites are made accessible under a Creative Commons license, with the processing methods available as open-source codes.
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Growing season length (GSL) is a key unifying concept in ecology that can be estimated from eddy covariance-derived estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP). Previous studies disagree on how increasing GSLs may affect NEP in evergreen coniferous forests, potentially due to the variety of methods used to quantify GSL from NEP. We calculated GSL and GSL-NEP regressions at eleven evergreen conifer sites across a broad climatic gradient in western North America using three common approaches: (1) variable length (3-7 days) regressions of day of year versus NEP, (2) a smoothed threshold approach, and (3) the carbon uptake period, followed by a new approach of a method-averaged ensemble.

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There are few whole-canopy or ecosystem scale assessments of the interplay between canopy temperature and photosynthesis across both spatial and temporal scales. The stable oxygen isotope ratio (δO) of plant cellulose can be used to resolve a photosynthesis-weighted estimate of canopy temperature, but the method requires independent confirmation. We compare isotope-resolved canopy temperatures derived from multi-year homogenization of tree cellulose δO to canopy-air temperatures weighted by gross primary productivity (GPP) at multiple sites, ranging from warm temperate to boreal and subalpine forests.

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A central challenge to understanding how climate anomalies, such as drought and heatwaves, impact the terrestrial carbon cycle, is quantification and scaling of spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Existing empirical and model-based satellite broadband spectra-based products have been shown to miss critical variation in GPP. Here, we evaluate the potential of high spectral resolution (10 nm) shortwave (400-2,500 nm) imagery to better detect spatial and temporal variations in GPP across a range of ecosystems, including forests, grassland-savannas, wetlands, and shrublands in a water-stressed region.

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Hydraulic redistribution (HR) of water from moist to drier soils, through plant roots, occurs world-wide in seasonally dry ecosystems. Although the influence of HR on landscape hydrology and plant water use has been amply demonstrated, HR's effects on microbe-controlled processes sensitive to soil moisture, including carbon and nutrient cycling at ecosystem scales, remain difficult to observe in the field and have not been integrated into a predictive framework. We incorporated a representation of HR into the Community Land Model (CLM4.

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Mountain runoff ultimately reflects the difference between precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET), as modulated by biogeophysical mechanisms that intensify or alleviate drought impacts. These modulating mechanisms are seldom measured and not fully understood. The impact of the warm 2012-15 California drought on the heavily instrumented Kings River basin provides an extraordinary opportunity to enumerate four mechanisms that controlled the impact of drought on mountain hydrology.

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Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data from 25 sites in the water-limited Southwest region of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100-1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2-25°C, and records of 3-10 years (150 site-years in total).

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Terrestrial ecosystem models assume that microbial communities respond instantaneously, or are immediately resilient, to environmental change. Here we tested this assumption by quantifying the resilience of a leaf litter community to changes in precipitation or nitrogen availability. By manipulating composition within a global change experiment, we decoupled the legacies of abiotic parameters versus that of the microbial community itself.

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Global modeling efforts indicate semiarid regions dominate the increasing trend and interannual variation of net CO2 exchange with the atmosphere, mainly driven by water availability. Many semiarid regions are expected to undergo climatic drying, but the impacts on net CO2 exchange are poorly understood due to limited semiarid flux observations. Here we evaluated 121 site-years of annual eddy covariance measurements of net and gross CO2 exchange (photosynthesis and respiration), precipitation, and evapotranspiration (ET) in 21 semiarid North American ecosystems with an observed range of 100 - 1000 mm in annual precipitation and records of 4-9 years each.

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The mid-elevation forest of California's Sierra Nevada poses a bioclimatic paradox. Mid-elevation trees experience a montane Mediterranean climate, with near-freezing winter days and rain-free summers. The asynchrony between warmth and water input suggests low primary production, limited by photosynthetic dormancy in winter cold, and again in summer and early autumn with drought, yet this forest is characterized by tall trees and high biomass.

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The high diversity of microbial communities hampers predictions about their responses to global change. Here we investigate the potential for using a phylogenetic, trait-based framework to capture the response of bacteria and fungi to global change manipulations. Replicated grassland plots were subjected to 3+ years of drought and nitrogen fertilization.

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Bacteria and fungi drive the decomposition of dead plant biomass (litter), an important step in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Here we investigate the sensitivity of litter microbial communities to simulated global change (drought and nitrogen addition) in a California annual grassland. Using 16S and 28S rDNA amplicon pyrosequencing, we quantify the response of the bacterial and fungal communities to the treatments and compare these results to background, temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability of the communities.

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Climate change has the potential to reduce surface-water supply by expanding the activity, density, or coverage of upland vegetation, although the likelihood and severity of this effect are poorly known. We quantified the extent to which vegetation and evapotranspiration (ET) are presently cold-limited in California's upper Kings River basin and used a space-for-time substitution to calculate the sensitivity of riverflow to vegetation expansion. We found that runoff is highly sensitive to vegetation migration; warming projected for 2100 could increase average basin-wide ET by 28% and decrease riverflow by 26%.

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