Serologic Response to the Epstein-Barr Virus Peptidome and the Risk for Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: It remains unclear why only a small proportion of individuals infected with the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) develop multiple sclerosis (MS) and what the underlying mechanisms are.

Objective: To assess the serologic response to all EBV peptides before the first symptoms of MS occur, determine whether the disease is associated with a distinct immune response to EBV, and evaluate whether specific EBV epitopes drive this response.

Design, Setting, And Participants: In this prospective, nested case-control study, individuals were selected among US military personnel with serum samples stored in the US Department of Defense Serum Repository.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 Rebound Study: A Prospective Cohort Study to Evaluate Viral and Symptom Rebound Differences in Participants Treated With Nirmatrelvir Plus Ritonavir Versus Untreated Controls.

Background: The uptake of nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (NPR) in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been limited by concerns around the rebound phenomenon despite the scarcity of evidence around its epidemiology. The purpose of this study was to prospectively compare the epidemiology of rebound in NPR-treated and untreated participants with acute COVID-19 infection.

Methods: We designed a prospective, observational study in which participants who tested positive for COVID-19 and were clinically eligible for NPR were recruited to be evaluated for either viral or symptom clearance and rebound.

Assessing the Effects of Measles Virus Infections on Childhood Infectious Disease Mortality in Brazil.

Background: Measles virus infection induces acute immunosuppression for weeks following infection, and also impairs preexisting immunological memory, resulting in "immune amnesia" that can last for years. Both mechanisms predispose the host to severe outcomes of subsequent infections. Therefore, measles dynamics could potentially affect the epidemiology of other infectious diseases.

Real World Performance of SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Various Clinical Settings.

Objective: To assess the validity of Antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDT) for SARS-CoV-2 as decision support tool in various hospital-based clinical settings.

Design: Retrospective cohort study among symptomatic and asymptomatic patients and Healthcare workers (HCW).

Setting: A large tertiary teaching medical center serving as a major COVID-19 hospitalizing facility.

Longitudinal analysis reveals high prevalence of Epstein-Barr virus associated with multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system of unknown etiology. We tested the hypothesis that MS is caused by Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in a cohort comprising more than 10 million young adults on active duty in the US military, 955 of whom were diagnosed with MS during their period of service. Risk of MS increased 32-fold after infection with EBV but was not increased after infection with other viruses, including the similarly transmitted cytomegalovirus.

TIPICO XI: report of the first series and podcast on infectious diseases and vaccines (aTIPICO).

TIPiCO is an annual expert meeting and workshop on infectious diseases and vaccination. The edition of 2020 changed its name and format to aTIPiCO, the first series and podcasts on infectious diseases and vaccines. A total of 13 prestigious experts from different countries participated in this edition launched on the 26 November 2020.

Development of at-home sample collection logistics for large-scale seroprevalence studies.

Background: Serological studies rely on the recruitment of representative cohorts; however, such efforts are specially complicated by the conditions surrounding the COVID19 pandemic.

Methods: We aimed to design and implement a fully remote methodology for conducting safe serological surveys that also allow for the engagement of representative study populations.

Results: This design was well-received and effective.

Recalibrating SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Lateral Flow Test Relative Sensitivity from Validation Studies to Absolute Sensitivity for Indicating Individuals Shedding Transmissible Virus.

Testing for SARS-CoV-2 internationally has focused on COVID-19 diagnosis among symptomatic individuals using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. Recently, however, SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid lateral flow tests (LFT) have been rolled out in several countries for testing asymptomatic individuals in public health programmes. Validation studies for LFT have been largely cross-sectional, reporting sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of LFT relative to PCR.

Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2.

Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal among countries. To examine the potential epidemiological and evolutionary impacts of “vaccine nationalism,” we extend previous models to include simple scenarios of stockpiling between two regions. In general, when vaccines are widely available and the immunity they confer is robust, sharing doses minimizes total cases across regions.

Cross-Sectional Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load by Symptom Status in Massachusetts Congregate Living Facilities.

Transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from people without symptoms confounds societal mitigation strategies. From April to June 2020, we tested nasopharyngeal swabs by reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) from 15 514 staff and 16 966 residents of nursing homes and assisted living facilities in Massachusetts. Cycle threshold (Ct) distributions were very similar between populations with (n = 739) and without (n = 2179) symptoms at the time of sampling (mean Ct, 25.

Immune age and biological age as determinants of vaccine responsiveness among elderly populations: the Human Immunomics Initiative research program.

The Human Immunomics Initiative (HII), a joint project between the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the Human Vaccines Project (HVP), focuses on studying immunity and the predictability of immuneresponsiveness to vaccines in aging populations.

Predicting the need for massive transfusion: Prospective validation of a smartphone-based clinical decision support tool.

Background: Improper or delayed activation of a massive transfusion protocol may have consequences to individuals and institutions. We designed a complex predictive algorithm that was packaged within a smartphone application. We hypothesized it would accurately assess the need for massive transfusion protocol activation and assist clinicians in that decision.

Mathematical Modeling to Inform Vaccination Strategies and Testing Approaches for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Nursing Homes.

Background: Nursing home residents and staff were included in the first phase of coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination in the United States. Because the primary trial endpoint was vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic disease, there are limited data on the extent to which vaccines protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and the ability to infect others (infectiousness). Assumptions about VE against infection and infectiousness have implications for changes to infection prevention guidance for vaccinated populations, including testing strategies.

Estimating epidemiologic dynamics from cross-sectional viral load distributions.

Estimating an epidemic's trajectory is crucial for developing public health responses to infectious diseases, but case data used for such estimation are confounded by variable testing practices. We show that the population distribution of viral loads observed under random or symptom-based surveillance-in the form of cycle threshold (Ct) values obtained from reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction testing-changes during an epidemic. Thus, Ct values from even limited numbers of random samples can provide improved estimates of an epidemic's trajectory.

Estimation of Transmission of COVID-19 in Simulated Nursing Homes With Frequent Testing and Immunity-Based Staffing.

Importance: Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have been disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Strategies are urgently needed to reduce transmission in these high-risk populations.

Objective: To evaluate COVID-19 transmission in nursing homes associated with contact-targeted interventions and testing.

Mathematical modeling to inform vaccination strategies and testing approaches for COVID-19 in nursing homes.

Background: Nursing home residents and staff were included in the first phase of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States. Because the primary trial endpoint was vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic disease, there are limited data on the extent to which vaccines protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection and the ability to infect others (infectiousness). Assumptions about VE against infection and infectiousness have implications for possible changes to infection prevention guidance for vaccinated populations, including testing strategies.

Using viral load and epidemic dynamics to optimize pooled testing in resource-constrained settings.

Virological testing is central to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) containment, but many settings face severe limitations on testing. Group testing offers a way to increase throughput by testing pools of combined samples; however, most proposed designs have not yet addressed key concerns over sensitivity loss and implementation feasibility. Here, we combined a mathematical model of epidemic spread and empirically derived viral kinetics for SARS-CoV-2 infections to identify pooling designs that are robust to changes in prevalence and to ratify sensitivity losses against the time course of individual infections.

Estimating epidemiologic dynamics from cross-sectional viral load distributions.

Estimating an epidemic's trajectory is crucial for developing public health responses to infectious diseases, but incidence data used for such estimation are confounded by variable testing practices. We show instead that the population distribution of viral loads observed under random or symptom-based surveillance, in the form of cycle threshold (Ct) values, changes during an epidemic and that Ct values from even limited numbers of random samples can provide improved estimates of an epidemic's trajectory. Combining multiple such samples and the fraction positive improves the precision and robustness of such estimation.

Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, predictions of international outbreaks were largely based on imported cases from Wuhan, China, potentially missing imports from other cities. We provide a method, combining daily COVID-19 prevalence and flight passenger volume, to estimate importations from 18 Chinese cities to 43 international destinations, including 26 in Africa. Global case importations from China in early January came primarily from Wuhan, but the inferred source shifted to other cities in mid-February, especially for importations to African destinations.

Structural basis for antibody inhibition of flavivirus NS1-triggered endothelial dysfunction.

Medically important flaviviruses cause diverse disease pathologies and collectively are responsible for a major global disease burden. A contributing factor to pathogenesis is secreted flavivirus nonstructural protein 1 (NS1). Despite demonstrated protection by NS1-specific antibodies against lethal flavivirus challenge, the structural and mechanistic basis remains unknown.