A Simulation Study of the Use of Vaccination to Control Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks Across Australia.

This study examines the potential for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies that incorporate vaccination to manage FMD spread for a range of incursion scenarios across Australia. Stakeholder consultation was used to formulate control strategies and incursion scenarios to ensure relevance to the diverse range of Australian livestock production regions and management systems. The Australian Animal Disease Spread model (AADIS) was used to compare nine control strategies for 13 incursion scenarios, including seven control strategies incorporating vaccination.

Early Decision Indicators for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Non-Endemic Countries.

Disease managers face many challenges when deciding on the most effective control strategy to manage an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Decisions have to be made under conditions of uncertainty and where the situation is continually evolving. In addition, resources for control are often limited.

Identifying areas of Australia at risk for H5N1 avian influenza infection from exposure to nomadic waterfowl moving throughout the Australo-Papuan region.

Since 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) due to the H5N1 virus has been reported from both domestic poultry and wild birds in over 60 countries and this has resulted in the direct death or slaughter of over 250 million birds. The potential for HPAI to be introduced to Australian commercial poultry via migratory shorebirds returning from Asia has previously been assessed as a low risk. However, introduction of HPAI from areas to the immediate north of Australia via nomadic waterfowl that range throughout the Australo-Papuan region provides a second potential pathway of entry.

Early warning of Ross River virus epidemics: combining surveillance data on climate and mosquitoes.

Background: Ross River virus disease is spread by mosquitoes, and an average of 5000 people are infected each year in Australia. It is one of the few infectious diseases for which climate-based early warning systems could be developed. The aim of this study was to test whether supplementing routinely collected climate data with mosquito surveillance data could increase the accuracy of disease prediction models.

Predicting Ross River virus epidemics from regional weather data.

Background: Diseases caused by arboviruses cause extensive mortality and morbidity throughout the world. Weather directly affects the breeding, abundance, and survival of mosquitoes, the principal vector of many arboviruses. The goal of this study was to test whether climate variables could predict with high levels of accuracy (more than 70%) epidemics of one arbovirus, Ross River virus disease.