Saving Regret and Procrastination.

In countries, where a substantial proportion of retirement income rests on savings, there is much concern that a sizeable fraction of the population reaches retirement with insufficient financial resources. We define saving regret as the wish in hindsight to have saved more earlier in life. We measured saving regret and possible determinants in a survey of U.

Trends in inequalities in the prevalence of dementia in the United States.

This paper presents estimates of the prevalence of dementia in the United States from 2000 to 2016 by age, sex, race and ethnicity, education, and a measure of lifetime earnings, using data on 21,442 individuals aged 65 y and older and 97,629 person-year observations from a nationally representative survey, the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). The survey includes a range of cognitive tests, and a subsample underwent clinical assessment for dementia. We developed a longitudinal, latent-variable model of cognitive status, which we estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Trends in Health in Midlife and Late Life.

Gains in life expectancy have recently slowed and mortality inequalities have increased. This paper examines whether trends in health observed at ages 55 to 89 mirror those trends in mortality, which may serve as an early indicator for the future evolution of mortality. We found that many health outcomes have worsened from 1992 to 2016, especially at ages below 70, and that differentials in health between low and high education groups have increased among the more recent cohorts.

Forecasting mortality inequalities in the U.S. based on trends in midlife health.

Recent literature has documented a widening gap in mortality between older individuals of high versus low socioeconomic status (SES) in the U.S. This paper investigates whether this trend will continue.

The Age Profile of Life Satisfaction After Age 65 in the U.S.

Although income and wealth are frequently used as indicators of well-being, they are increasingly augmented with subjective measures such as life satisfaction to capture broader dimensions of the well-being of individuals. Based on large surveys of individuals, life satisfaction in cross-section often is found to increase with age beyond retirement into advanced old age. It may seem puzzling that average life satisfaction does not decline at older ages because older individuals are more likely to experience chronic or acute health conditions, or the loss of a spouse.

The Relationship Between Lifetime Out-of-pocket Medical Expenditures, Dementia, and Socioeconomic Status in the U.S.

Dementia is one of the most expensive medical conditions. The costs are borne by families, by private insurance and by society via public programs such as Medicaid in the U.S.

Reducing cross-wave variability in survey measures of household wealth.

Survey measures of household wealth often incorporate measurement error. The resulting excess variability in the first difference in wealth makes meaningful statistical inference difficult on changes in household-level wealth. We study the effects of two methods intended to reduce this problem: confronts respondents with large discrepancies between wealth reports from the current wave and from the previous wave.

Dementia Prevalence in the United States in 2000 and 2012: Estimates Based on a Nationally Representative Study.

Objectives: Age- and sex-specific rates of dementia are estimated in the U.S. population aged 65 or older in 2000 and 2012 using a large nationally representative dataset, the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and accounting for mortality selection and specificities of the interview protocol.

Personality and Employment Transitions at Older Ages: Direct and Indirect Effects through Non-Monetary Job Characteristics.

We study whether individuals with different personality traits systematically exhibit different retirement trajectories. We find weak direct associations between personality and employment transitions. On the other hand, personality does contribute indirectly to these transitions by moderating the effects of non-monetary job characteristics.

Distribution of lifetime nursing home use and of out-of-pocket spending.

Reliable estimates of the lifetime risk of using a nursing home and the associated out-of-pocket costs are important for the saving decisions by individuals and families, and for the purchase of long-term care insurance. We used data on up to 18 y of nursing home use and out-of-pocket costs drawn from the Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal household survey representative of the older US population. We accumulated the use and spending by individuals over many years, and we developed and used an individual-level matching method to account for use before and after the observation period.

Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity.

US Prevalence And Predictors Of Informal Caregiving For Dementia.

In 2010, 5.5 million US adults ages seventy and older received informal care, including 3.6 million with cognitive impairment or probable dementia.

Future Monetary Costs of Dementia in the United States under Alternative Dementia Prevalence Scenarios.

Population aging will likely lead to increases is health care spending and the ability of governments to support entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. Dementia is a chronic condition that is especially pertinent because of its strong association with old age and because care for dementia is labor intensive and expensive. Indeed, prior research has found that if current dementia prevalence rates persist population aging will generate very large increases in health care spending for dementia.

How Do Management Fees Affect Retirement Wealth under Mexico's Personal Retirement Accounts System?

In 1997, Mexico transformed its pay-as-you-go social security system to a fully funded system with personal retirement accounts, including management fees. This article examines changes in retirement wealth resulting from this new system. It shows that management fees have drained a significant proportion of individuals' retirement wealth and have increased the number of persons claiming a government-subsidized minimum pension, particularly from the time the system was introduced in 1997 until adjustment to management fees in 2008.

Heterogeneity in spending change at retirement.

The simple one-good model of life-cycle consumption requires that consumption be continuous over retirement; yet prior research based on partial measures of consumption or on synthetic panels indicates that spending drops at retirement, a result that has been called the retirement-consumption puzzle. Using panel data on total spending, nondurable spending and food spending, we find that spending declines at small rates at retirement, rates that could be explained by mechanisms such as the cessation of work-related expenses, unexpected retirement due to a health shock or by the substitution of time for spending. We find substantial heterogeneity in spending change at retirement: in the upper half of the wealth distribution spending increased.

Monetary costs of dementia in the United States.

Background: Dementia affects a large and growing number of older adults in the United States. The monetary costs attributable to dementia are likely to be similarly large and to continue to increase.

Methods: In a subsample (856 persons) of the population in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative longitudinal study of older adults, the diagnosis of dementia was determined with the use of a detailed in-home cognitive assessment that was 3 to 4 hours in duration and a review by an expert panel.

Dementia and out-of-pocket spending on health care services.

Background: High levels of out-of-pocket (OOP) spending for health care may lead patients to forego needed services and medications as well as hamper their ability to pay for other essential goods. Because it leads to disability and the loss of independence, dementia may put patients and their families at risk for high OOP spending, especially for long-term care services.

Methods: We used data from the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study, a nationally representative subsample (n = 743) of the Health and Retirement Study, to determine whether individuals with dementia had higher self-reported OOP spending compared with those with cognitive impairment without dementia and those with normal cognitive function.

Conscientiousness and longevity: an examination of possible mediators.

Objective: Conscientious individuals tend to experience a number of health benefits, not the least of which being greater longevity. However, it remains an open question as to why this link with longevity occurs. The current study tested two possible mediators (physical health and cognitive functioning) of the link between conscientiousness and longevity.

Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys.

Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement. In contrast the subjective probability of a stock market gain varies greatly across individuals even though no one has private information and the outcome is the same for everyone.

Prevalence of cognitive impairment without dementia in the United States.

Background: Cognitive impairment without dementia is associated with increased risk for disability, increased health care costs, and progression to dementia. There are no population-based prevalence estimates of this condition in the United States.

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of cognitive impairment without dementia in the United States and determine longitudinal cognitive and mortality outcomes.

The Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study: study design and methods.

Objective: We describe the design and methods of the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study (ADAMS), a new national study that will provide data on the antecedents, prevalence, outcomes, and costs of dementia and "cognitive impairment, not demented" (CIND) using a unique study design based on the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We also illustrate potential uses of the ADAMS data and provide information to interested researchers on obtaining ADAMS and HRS data.

Methods: The ADAMS is the first population-based study of dementia in the United States to include subjects from all regions of the country, while at the same time using a single standardized diagnostic protocol in a community-based sample.

Disability forecasts and future Medicare costs.

The traditional focus of disability research has been on the elderly, with good reason. Chronic disability is much more prevalent among the elderly, and it has a more direct impact on the demand for medical care. It is also important to understand trends in disability among the young, however, particularly if these trends diverge from those among the elderly.

Forecasting the nursing home population.

Objective: To forecast growth in the US nursing home population, as a function of trends in disability and marriage.

Methods: Nursing home residence is modeled as a function of disability status, marital status, and other demographic covariates. Our predictions for nursing home residence are built upon joint forecasts of marriage and disability.