Divergent trajectories of Arctic change: Implications for future socio-economic patterns.

Climate change is causing rapid warming in the Arctic, which, alongside other physical, socio-economic, cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors, is driving change in the far north. This research presents a conceptual model summarizing Arctic change factors which in turn was used in the design of a Delphi exercise which leveraged a variety of experts to forecast trajectories in different parts of the Arctic. Based on these experts' expectations for economic and governance outcomes by 2050, we find that our results illustrate the "many Arctics" concept or some of the ways in which the Arctic is heterogenous now, and perhaps becoming increasingly so in the future.

Gravel grabs: The rocky foundations of Indigenous geologic power in the Arctic.

Infrastructure development cannot take place without gravel, which is scarce in the North American Arctic. Conditioning where development can occur, the commodity has become the target of Indigenous actors seeking to secure land and resource bases and their material futures, too. In Alaska, decades of litigation pitting Indigenous surface versus subsurface corporate landholders has contested gravel's legal location.

Urban agglomeration worsens spatial disparities in climate adaptation.

Many countries promote urban agglomeration to enhance economic competitiveness, but the impacts of this strategy on local climate adaptation remain poorly understood. Here, we use variation in greenspaces to test the effectiveness of climate adaptation policy across climate impacts and vulnerability dimensions. Using satellite imagery and logistic regression, we analyze spatiotemporal correlation between greenspace and climate vulnerability in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, an area comprising ~ 70 million people and 11 cities, making it a useful natural experiment for our study.