Do conviction narratives drive individual decisions?

Conviction Narrative Theory is an interesting and plausible way to think about how individuals make decisions when quantitative assessments are not open to them. The question I pose is the following. Is there any general result about how decisions should be taken independent of the particular circumstances of that decision?

Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?

Uncertainty is pervasive in economic policy-making. Modern economies share similarities with other complex systems in their unpredictability. But economic systems also differ from those in the natural sciences because outcomes are affected by the state of beliefs of the systems' participants.