A tutorial on Bayesian multi-model linear regression with BAS and JASP.

Linear regression analyses commonly involve two consecutive stages of statistical inquiry. In the first stage, a single 'best' model is defined by a specific selection of relevant predictors; in the second stage, the regression coefficients of the winning model are used for prediction and for inference concerning the importance of the predictors. However, such second-stage inference ignores the model uncertainty from the first stage, resulting in overconfident parameter estimates that generalize poorly.

Age modification of ozone associations with cardiovascular disease risk in adults: a potential role for soluble P-selectin and blood pressure.

Background: Studies have suggested that age increases susceptibility to ozone-associated mortality, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. In a previous study, personal exposure to ozone was significantly associated with a platelet activation biomarker, plasma soluble P-selectin (sCD62P), and blood pressure in 89 healthy adults, aged 22-52 years. The present study examines whether age modifies these associations in the same adults and in additional adults.

Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States-Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci.

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010).

Functional annotation signatures of disease susceptibility loci improve SNP association analysis.

Background: Genetic association studies are conducted to discover genetic loci that contribute to an inherited trait, identify the variants behind these associations and ascertain their functional role in determining the phenotype. To date, functional annotations of the genetic variants have rarely played more than an indirect role in assessing evidence for association. Here, we demonstrate how these data can be systematically integrated into an association study's analysis plan.

BAYESIAN MODEL SEARCH AND MULTILEVEL INFERENCE FOR SNP ASSOCIATION STUDIES.

Technological advances in genotyping have given rise to hypothesis-based association studies of increasing scope. As a result, the scientific hypotheses addressed by these studies have become more complex and more difficult to address using existing analytic methodologies. Obstacles to analysis include inference in the face of multiple comparisons, complications arising from correlations among the SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), choice of their genetic parametrization and missing data.

Association between DNA damage response and repair genes and risk of invasive serous ovarian cancer.

Background: We analyzed the association between 53 genes related to DNA repair and p53-mediated damage response and serous ovarian cancer risk using case-control data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCOCS), a population-based, case-control study.

Methods/principal Findings: The analysis was restricted to 364 invasive serous ovarian cancer cases and 761 controls of white, non-Hispanic race. Statistical analysis was two staged: a screen using marginal Bayes factors (BFs) for 484 SNPs and a modeling stage in which we calculated multivariate adjusted posterior probabilities of association for 77 SNPs that passed the screen.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the TP53 region and susceptibility to invasive epithelial ovarian cancer.

The p53 protein is critical for multiple cellular functions including cell growth and DNA repair. We assessed whether polymorphisms in the region encoding TP53 were associated with risk of invasive ovarian cancer. The study population includes a total of 5,206 invasive ovarian cancer cases (2,829 of which were serous) and 8,790 controls from 13 case-control or nested case-control studies participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC).

Polymorphism in the IL18 gene and epithelial ovarian cancer in non-Hispanic white women.

Over 22,000 cases of ovarian cancer were diagnosed in 2007 in the United States, but only a fraction of them can be attributed to mutations in highly penetrant genes such as BRCA1. To determine whether low-penetrance genetic variants contribute to ovarian cancer risk, we genotyped 1,536 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in several candidate gene pathways in 848 epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 798 controls in the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCO) using a customized Illumina array. The inflammation gene interleukin-18 (IL18) showed the strongest evidence for association with epithelial ovarian cancer in a gene-by-gene analysis (P = 0.

Clinical response to varying the stimulus parameters in deep brain stimulation for essential tremor.

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the ventral intermediate nucleus of the thalamus for essential tremor is sometimes limited by side effects. The mechanisms by which DBS alleviates tremor or causes side effects are unclear; thus, it is difficult to select stimulus parameters that maximize the width of the therapeutic window. The goal of this study was to quantify the impact on side effect intensity (SE), tremor amplitude, and the therapeutic window of varying stimulus parameters.

Minimum energy single-shock internal atrial defibrillation in sheep.

Well-tolerated internal atrial defibrillation shocks must be below the pain threshold, which has been estimated to be less than 1 Joule. Defibrillation of the atria with low energy is made possible by delivering shocks at the low end of the defibrillation dose-response curve. We studied low-energy defibrillation in sheep to test the hypothesis that the energy that defibrillates the atria 10% of the time (ED10) is less than 1 Joule.

EFFECTS OF AVIAN SEED DISPERSAL ON THE GENETIC STRUCTURE OF WHITEBARK PINE POPULATIONS.

We used allozyme analysis to examine family structure, the spatial patterning of related individuals, in two populations of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), a subalpine conifer that commonly displays a multistem form. The individual stems within clumps are genetically distinct individuals, having arisen from separate seeds. Individuals within a clump are genetically more similar than individuals in different clumps, but individuals in neighboring clumps do not appear to be more similar than individuals in distant clumps.