Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk.

Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e.

Spotted lanternfly predicted to establish in California by 2033 without preventative management.

Models that are both spatially and temporally dynamic are needed to forecast where and when non-native pests and pathogens are likely to spread, to provide advance information for natural resource managers. The potential US range of the invasive spotted lanternfly (SLF, Lycorma delicatula) has been modeled, but until now, when it could reach the West Coast's multi-billion-dollar fruit industry has been unknown. We used process-based modeling to forecast the spread of SLF assuming no treatments to control populations occur.

Iteratively forecasting biological invasions with PoPS and a little help from our friends.

Ecological forecasting has vast potential to support environmental decision making with repeated, testable predictions across management-relevant timescales and locations. Yet resource managers rarely use co-designed forecasting systems or embed them in decision making. Although prediction of planned management outcomes is particularly important for biological invasions to optimize when and where resources should be allocated, spatial-temporal models of spread typically have not been openly shared, iteratively updated, or interactive to facilitate exploration of management actions.

Dietary antioxidants and flight exercise in female birds affect allocation of nutrients to eggs: how carry-over effects work.

Physiological challenges during one part of the annual cycle can carry over and affect performance at a subsequent phase, and antioxidants could be one mediator of trade-offs between phases. We performed a controlled experiment with zebra finches to examine how songbirds use nutrition to manage trade-offs in antioxidant allocation between endurance flight and subsequent reproduction. Our treatment groups included (1) a non-supplemented, non-exercised group (control group) fed a standard diet with no exercise beyond that experienced during normal activity in an aviary; (2) a supplemented non-exercised group fed a water- and lipid-soluble antioxidant-supplemented diet with no exercise; (3) a non-supplemented exercised group fed a standard diet and trained to perform daily endurance flight for 6 weeks; and (4) a supplemented exercised group fed an antioxidant-supplemented diet and trained to perform daily flight for 6 weeks.

Migrating songbirds on stopover prepare for, and recover from, oxidative challenges posed by long-distance flight.

Managing oxidative stress is an important physiological function for all aerobic organisms, particularly during periods of prolonged high metabolic activity, such as long-distance migration across ecological barriers. However, no previous study has investigated the oxidative status of birds at different stages of migration and whether that oxidative status depends on the condition of the birds. In this study, we compared (1) energy stores and circulating oxidative status measures in (a) two species of Neotropical migrants with differing migration strategies that were sampled at an autumn stopover site before an ecological barrier; and (b) a species of trans-Saharan migrant sampled at a spring stopover site after crossing an ecological barrier; and (2) circulating oxidative measures and indicators of fat metabolism in a trans-Saharan migrant after stopovers of varying duration (0-8 nights), based on recapture records.