Suitability of sentinel abattoirs for syndromic surveillance using provincially inspected bovine abattoir condemnation data.

Background: Sentinel surveillance has previously been used to monitor and identify disease outbreaks in both human and animal contexts. Three approaches for the selection of sentinel sites are proposed and evaluated regarding their ability to capture overall respiratory disease trends using provincial abattoir condemnation data from all abattoirs open throughout the study for use in a sentinel syndromic surveillance system.

Results: All three sentinel selection criteria approaches resulted in the identification of sentinel abattoirs that captured overall temporal trends in condemnation rates similar to those reported by the full set of abattoirs.

One-Health Simulation Modelling: Assessment of Control Strategies Against the Spread of Influenza between Swine and Human Populations Using NAADSM.

Simulation models implemented using a range of parameters offer a useful approach to identifying effective disease intervention strategies. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of key control strategies to mitigate the simultaneous spread of influenza among and between swine and human populations. We used the pandemic H1N1 2009 virus as a case study.

Geomechanical behavior of the reservoir and caprock system at the In Salah CO2 storage project.

Almost 4 million metric tons of CO2 were injected at the In Salah CO2 storage site between 2004 and 2011. Storage integrity at the site is provided by a 950-m-thick caprock that sits above the injection interval. This caprock consists of a number of low-permeability units that work together to limit vertical fluid migration.

One-Health Simulation Modelling: A Case Study of Influenza Spread between Human and Swine Populations using NAADSM.

The circulation of zoonotic influenza A viruses including pH1N1 2009 and H5N1 continue to present a constant threat to animal and human populations. Recently, an H3N2 variant spread from pigs to humans and between humans in limited numbers. Accordingly, this research investigated a range of scenarios of the transmission dynamics of pH1N1 2009 virus at the swine-human interface while accounting for different percentages of swine workers initially immune.

Syndromic surveillance using veterinary laboratory data: algorithm combination and customization of alerts.

Background: Syndromic surveillance research has focused on two main themes: the search for data sources that can provide early disease detection; and the development of efficient algorithms that can detect potential outbreak signals.

Methods: This work combines three algorithms that have demonstrated solid performance in detecting simulated outbreak signals of varying shapes in time series of laboratory submissions counts. These are: the Shewhart control charts designed to detect sudden spikes in counts; the EWMA control charts developed to detect slow increasing outbreaks; and the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, which can explicitly account for temporal effects in the data stream monitored.

Network analysis of swine shipments in Ontario, Canada, to support disease spread modelling and risk-based disease management.

Understanding contact networks are important for modelling and managing the spread and control of communicable diseases in populations. This study characterizes the swine shipment network of a multi-site production system in southwestern Ontario, Canada. Data were extracted from a company's database listing swine shipments among 251 swine farms, including 20 sow, 69 nursery and 162 finishing farms, for the 2-year period of 2006 to 2007.

Syndromic surveillance using veterinary laboratory data: data pre-processing and algorithm performance evaluation.

Diagnostic test orders to an animal laboratory were explored as a data source for monitoring trends in the incidence of clinical syndromes in cattle. Four years of real data and over 200 simulated outbreak signals were used to compare pre-processing methods that could remove temporal effects in the data, as well as temporal aberration detection algorithms that provided high sensitivity and specificity. Weekly differencing demonstrated solid performance in removing day-of-week effects, even in series with low daily counts.

Exploratory analysis of methods for automated classification of laboratory test orders into syndromic groups in veterinary medicine.

Background: Recent focus on earlier detection of pathogen introduction in human and animal populations has led to the development of surveillance systems based on automated monitoring of health data. Real- or near real-time monitoring of pre-diagnostic data requires automated classification of records into syndromes--syndromic surveillance--using algorithms that incorporate medical knowledge in a reliable and efficient way, while remaining comprehensible to end users.

Methods: This paper describes the application of two of machine learning (Naïve Bayes and Decision Trees) and rule-based methods to extract syndromic information from laboratory test requests submitted to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory.

Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydroclimatic conditions.

Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological model for many regions. Large-scale, warm droughts have recently occurred in North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia and Australia, resulting in major effects on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon balance and food security. Here we compare the functional response of above-ground net primary production to contrasting hydroclimatic periods in the late twentieth century (1975-1998), and drier, warmer conditions in the early twenty-first century (2000-2009) in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

Retrospective time series analysis of veterinary laboratory data: preparing a historical baseline for cluster detection in syndromic surveillance.

The practice of disease surveillance has shifted in the last two decades towards the introduction of systems capable of early detection of disease. Modern biosurveillance systems explore different sources of pre-diagnostic data, such as patient's chief complaint upon emergency visit or laboratory test orders. These sources of data can provide more rapid detection than traditional surveillance based on case confirmation, but are less specific, and therefore their use poses challenges related to the presence of background noise and unlabelled temporal aberrations in historical data.

Reactivity of Mount Simon sandstone and the Eau Claire shale under CO2 storage conditions.

The Mount Simon sandstone and Eau Claire shale formations are target storage and cap rock formations for the Illinois Basin-Decatur Geologic Carbon Sequestration Project. We reacted rock samples with brine and supercritical CO(2) at 51 °C and 19.5 MPa to access the reactivity of these formations at storage conditions and to address the applicability of using published kinetic and thermodynamic constants to predict geochemical alteration that may occur during storage by quantifying parameter uncertainty against experimental data.

Suitability of bovine portion condemnations at provincially-inspected abattoirs in Ontario Canada for food animal syndromic surveillance.

Background: Abattoir condemnations may play an important role in a food animal syndromic surveillance system. Portion condemnation data may be particularly useful, as these data can provide more specific information on health outcomes than whole carcass condemnation data. Various seasonal, secular, disease, and non-disease factors have been previously identified to be associated with whole carcass condemnation rates in Ontario provincial abattoirs; and if ignored, may bias the results of quantitative disease surveillance methods.

Experimental Study of Cement - Sandstone/Shale - Brine - CO2 Interactions.

Background: Reactive-transport simulation is a tool that is being used to estimate long-term trapping of CO2, and wellbore and cap rock integrity for geologic CO2 storage. We reacted end member components of a heterolithic sandstone and shale unit that forms the upper section of the In Salah Gas Project carbon storage reservoir in Krechba, Algeria with supercritical CO2, brine, and with/without cement at reservoir conditions to develop experimentally constrained geochemical models for use in reactive transport simulations.

Results: We observe marked changes in solution composition when CO2 reacted with cement, sandstone, and shale components at reservoir conditions.

Evaluation of a veterinary-based syndromic surveillance system implemented for swine.

Practicing veterinarians play an important role in detecting the initial outbreak of disease in animal populations. A pilot study was conducted to determine the feasibility of a veterinary-based surveillance system for the Ontario swine industry. A total of 7 practitioners from 5 clinics agreed to submit information from July 1, 2007 to June 30, 2008.

Factors associated with whole carcass condemnation rates in provincially-inspected abattoirs in Ontario 2001-2007: implications for food animal syndromic surveillance.

Background: Ontario provincial abattoirs have the potential to be important sources of syndromic surveillance data for emerging diseases of concern to animal health, public health and food safety. The objectives of this study were to: (1) describe provincially inspected abattoirs processing cattle in Ontario in terms of the number of abattoirs, the number of weeks abattoirs process cattle, geographical distribution, types of whole carcass condemnations reported, and the distance animals are shipped for slaughter; and (2) identify various seasonal, secular, disease and non-disease factors that might bias the results of quantitative methods, such as cluster detection methods, used for food animal syndromic surveillance.

Results: Data were collected from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs and the Ontario Cattlemen's Association regarding whole carcass condemnation rates for cattle animal classes, abattoir compliance ratings, and the monthly sales-yard price for various cattle classes from 2001-2007.

The North American Animal Disease Spread Model: a simulation model to assist decision making in evaluating animal disease incursions.

The North American Animal Disease Spread Model is a stochastic, spatial, state-transition simulation model for the spread of highly contagious diseases of animals. It was developed with broad international support to assist policy development and decision making involving disease incursions. User-established parameters define model behavior in terms of disease progression; disease spread by animal-to-animal contact, contact with contaminated personnel or equipment, and airborne dissemination; and the implementation of control measures such as destruction and vaccination.

Investigation of exposure to swine influenza viruses in Ontario (Canada) finisher herds in 2004 and 2005.

The epidemiology of influenza in the North American swine population has changed since the emergence of a triple-reassortant H3N2 influenza virus. Although seen previously in North America, the Ontario swine population had likely been free of viruses of the reassortant H3N2 lineage until 2005. The objective of this study was to investigate the frequency and distribution of exposure to H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes in the Ontario finisher pig population prior to and after the H3N2 outbreak that occurred in 2005.

Simple models to assist in communicating key principles of animal disease control.

Aggressive actions for disease eradication, including animal disposal, can have serious impacts on the livestock industry, environment and public confidence. Coordinated efforts are required for effective, efficient and acceptable disease control and eradication. The authors summarise concepts from previous publications into a group of simple examples, schematic diagrams and basic equations.

Saturated zone denitrification: potential for natural attenuation of nitrate contamination in shallow groundwater under dairy operations.

We present results from field studies at two central California dairies that demonstrate the prevalence of saturated-zone denitrification in shallow groundwater with 3H/ 3He apparent ages of < 35 years. Concentrated animal feeding operations are suspected to be major contributors of nitrate to groundwater, but saturated zone denitrification could mitigate their impact to groundwater quality. Denitrification is identified and quantified using N and O stable isotope compositions of nitrate coupled with measurements of excess N2 and residual NO3(-) concentrations.

Assessing the impact of animal waste lagoon seepage on the geochemistry of an underlying shallow aquifer.

Evidence of seepage from animal waste holding lagoons at a dairy facility in the San Joaquin Valley of California is assessed in the context of a process geochemical model that addresses reactions associated with the formation of the lagoon water as well as reactions occurring upon the mixture of lagoon water with underlying aquifer material. Comparison of model results with observed concentrations of NH4+, K+, PO4(3-), dissolved inorganic carbon, pH, Ca2+, Mg2+, SO4(2-), Cl-, and dissolved Ar in lagoon water samples and groundwater samples suggests three key geochemical processes: (i) off-gassing of significant quantities of CO2 and CH4 during mineralization of manure in the lagoon water, (ii) ion exchange reactions that remove K+ and NH4+ from seepage water as it migrates into the underlying anaerobic aquifer material, and (iii) mineral precipitation reactions involving phosphate and carbonate minerals in the lagoon water in response to an increase in pH as well as in the underlying aquifer from elevated Ca2+ and Mg2+ levels generated by ion exchange. Substantial off-gassing from the lagoons is further indicated by dissolved argon concentrations in lagoon water samples that are below atmospheric equilibrium.

Burden and cost of gastroenteritis in a Canadian community.

This study estimated the health burden and costs associated with gastroenteritis in the City of Hamilton (Ontario, Canada). The number of cases, number of different resource units used, and cost per resource unit were represented by probability distributions and point estimates. These were subsequently integrated in a stochastic model to estimate the overall burden and cost in the population and to depict the uncertainty of the estimates.

Estimating the under-reporting rate for infectious gastrointestinal illness in Ontario.

Background: In Ontario, infectious gastrointestinal illness (IGI) reporting can be represented by a linear model of several sequential steps required for a case to be captured in the provincial reportable disease surveillance system. Since reportable enteric data are known to represent only a small fraction of the total IGI in the community, the objective of this study was to estimate the under-reporting rate for IGI in Ontario.

Methods: A distribution of plausible values for the under-reporting rate was estimated by specifying input distributions for the proportions reported at each step in the reporting chain, and multiplying these distributions together using simulation methods.

Magnitude and distribution of acute, self-reported gastrointestinal illness in a Canadian community.

To estimate the magnitude and distribution of self-reported, acute gastrointestinal illness in a Canadian-based population, we conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional telephone survey of approximately 3500 randomly selected residents of the city of Hamilton (Ontario, Canada) from February 2001 to February 2002. The observed monthly prevalence was 10% (95 % CI 9.94-10.

Evaluation of the Reveal and SafePath rapid Escherichia coli O157 detection tests for use on bovine feces and carcasses.

The Reveal (Neogen Corp., Lansing, Mich.) and SafePath (SafePath Laboratories LLC, St.

Estimates of within-herd incidence rates of Mycobacterium bovis in Canadian cattle and cervids between 1985 and 1994.

We analysed the individual-animal data from six of the nine outbreaks of tuberculosis in Canadian cattle and cervids from 1985 to 1994. A "positive/reactor" animal was one which had either a positive culture or a positive or suspicious reaction on a mid-cervical, comparative cervical, or gross or histopathological test for tuberculosis. Individual-animal data were collected only for herds which had one or more positive/reactor animals.